First some context: From 1576 to 1578 Don Juan (the illegitimate half-brother of Philip II Habsburg) was for a short while governor-general of the Netherlands. Requisens (his predecessor) had died in early March 1577, but Don Juan only arrived in Luxembourg on the 3rd of November 1577. During the interim the problem of mutinying "Spanish" troops that had emerged near the end of Requisens tenure had spiralled out of control, and only one day after his arrival in Luxembourg these troops would sack Antwerp. During the interim the local nobility had taken control of the various government organs, and had drafted the Pacification of Ghent in which they demanded that all foreign troops are removed from their territory (Luxembourg was the only province that didn't join them).
After months of pushback Don Juan finally gave in with the Perpetual Edict of February 1577, and he finally entered Brussels in May. In accordance with the terms of the Pacification Don Juan the Spanish armies were sent off, most of them to Italy. However Don Juan never had good relations with the local institutions, grew increasingly paranoid about an alleged plot to assassinate him, and eventually broke the edict when he took control of the citadel of Namur in July. He then asked his brother to send the tercios back from Italy, and along with this force came Alexander Farnese.
Alexander would prove to be invaluable to the Spanish from the very beginning, and when in 1578 Don Juan died Alexander replaced him (according to some sources at the explicit request of Don Juan). He would then lead the royalist forces through 9 years of near-continuous successes with military might and diplomacy...
After months of pushback Don Juan finally gave in with the Perpetual Edict of February 1577, and he finally entered Brussels in May. In accordance with the terms of the Pacification Don Juan the Spanish armies were sent off, most of them to Italy. However Don Juan never had good relations with the local institutions, grew increasingly paranoid about an alleged plot to assassinate him, and eventually broke the edict when he took control of the citadel of Namur in July. He then asked his brother to send the tercios back from Italy, and along with this force came Alexander Farnese.
Alexander would prove to be invaluable to the Spanish from the very beginning, and when in 1578 Don Juan died Alexander replaced him (according to some sources at the explicit request of Don Juan). He would then lead the royalist forces through 9 years of near-continuous successes with military might and diplomacy...
So what if Phillip II hadn't given Alexander permission to depart to the Netherlands? He stays in Italy and eventually is sent to Portugal where he gets his moment in the spotlight instead (just keep him out of the Netherlands).
Who would take his place? Both as commander and then as governor? Julian Remero was the obvious answer as commander of the Italian forces, but that would be too easy so he decided to drop dead in October 1577, right around the time Philip II authorized their return to the Netherlands... There's a plethora of other big names, such as Bernardino de Medoza, Christobal de Mondragon, Fuentes, Francisco de Montesdoca, Fracisco Verdugo, de Valdes, or Sancho d'Avila. All of these were prominent commanders active in the Netherlands, however I have no clue of what the hierarchy was and which one would be in charge instead of Farnese or Romero.
Furthermore iotl Philip II tried to make Alexander share power (either making him co-governor with his mother Margaret of Parma, or making her governor and instating him only as captain-general of the army, sources differ). This suggests that Philip didn't want the positions to be combined, and wouldn't have let it happen had it been anybody other than Farnese (who over the last year had proven to be essential to his war effort). So there'd also be an additional non-military figure who would become governor-general, and as to who that might be I'm even more in the dark than for the generals.
So who would be the likely commander of the Army of Flanders and Governor-General of the Netherlands in absence of Alexander Farnese? And how might this affect the the war?
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