even if Aunt Adele tried to force her nephew into it, the fact that neither of his parents had particularly had a close relationship with Provence- the only son who mattered to his mother was Bourgogne, and the dauphin was pretty much "meh" with all of his kids- would mean the "guilt" card* she regularly used on OTL Louis XVI would have no effect. Indeed, it might have the opposite effect.
Indeed, I think Provence (or even Artois) would be less swayed by Adélaïde compared to Louis XVI. In 1774 he was only 20 when he succeeded his grandfather. Louis XVIII would be 19 in 1774, but Louis XVI's education had not been... not necessarily... neglected, per say, but the Bourbon monarchs all together did not often make very good choices in educating their heirs. Louis XIV's choices all but anhiliated the Grand Dauphin's intellectual interests. Louis XV likewise had an elderly governor, the
Maréchal de Villeroy who had the young king debut in two ballets—one in February 1720, another in December 1721—merely because Louis XIV had done the same. Louis XV was shy and terrified of these performances, and never danced in another ballet again.
Louis XVI was not so harshly treated, but his governor the Duc de Vauguyon was a virulent Austrophobe and a member of the Dévots—over and over he sought to instill into Louis XVI that his future wife the Archduchess was a Habsburg and preached again and again about the Habsburg 'domination' of the previous centuries. He insinuated that Louis XVI would need to guard himself, because there would be no doubt that his Austrian wife would seek to dominate him. Given Louis XVI's own shyness, it can't be any surprise that his relationship with Marie-Antoinette began on awkward footing: his governor had essentially taught the Dauphin to fear her. It also didn't help that Marie-Antoinette
was instructed by her mother and Ambassador Mercy to use her position to help advance Austrian interests and to uphold the Franco-Austrian alliance.
Marie-Antoinette was not someone motivated by true political interest or power, and it was mainly because of court factionalism that she took sides. Her early attempts to meddle in the 1770s were failures—she had more success in the 1780s concerning the ARW, and some of her candidates also attained high office. She also played a role in Calonne's rise, along with the Baron de Breteuil who headed the Maison du Roi would become Chief Minister for a brief spell in 1789. Louis XVI's lack of a mistress gave Marie-Antoinette a unique position: as the queen she continued to occupy the position traditionally occupied by French consorts; but her close relationship with Louis XVI also gave her a political role later on that had been filled (at least in the previous reign) by women like du Barry and Pompadour. Marie-Antoinette was wife and mistress all rolled into one—and some of the ministers she supported did not advocate for any true structural change, and in some cases advocated for archconservative reforms (such as one reform passed under the tenure of the Marquis de Ségur as Minister of War, which made having four quarterings of nobility as a requirement to be appointed as an officer—though some said the scheme did not originate with Ségur and that he adopted it under duress).
It would certainly be interesting to see how Louis XVIII and Marie-Antoinette get on: for one, he'll likely have
much less trouble consummating the marriage. The rumors of his impotence are overstated, and c. 1771 he was not yet obese. He consummated his marriage with his OTL wife at some point between 1772-1774, and she had two miscarriages: in 1774 and 1781. Him and Marie-Antoinette very well may get on quite well in a marriage, rather than their OTL relationship where Louis XVIII was constantly seeking to one-up his brother as well as his wife. Louis XVIII was certainly a good conversationalist, and would likely be comfortable at home among some of the characters Marie-Antoinette befriended IOTL, such as the Polignacs. On the other hand, we know that Louis XVIII did have mistresses (not that one can blame him, given the character of his OTL wife, Marie Joséphine of Savoy—known not only for her atrocious hygiene (allegedly she at first did not ever brush her teeth, pluck her eye brows, or use perfume and her own father had to write to her to take better care of her toilette) but also her alcoholism and her passionate attachment to Marguerite de Gourbillon, her lady-in-waiting and
lectrice... it was rumored that Gourbillon and the Comtesse were involved in a lesbian affair, which does seem probable). Allegedly Louis XVIIII got involved with his first mistress, Anne de Balbi because of his anger of Marie-Joséphine's attachment to Gourbillion. He was with Balbi for over ten years—he only broke things off in 1792 when during their time apart (she'd been forced to accompany the Comtesse to Savoy, as she was Marie-Joséphine's lady-in-waiting) she gave birth to twins... children that couldn't be his because of the period of time they'd been apart. As for his, ah.... later "affair" with the Comtesse du Cayla is something else entirely—an emotional affair between an aged and needy king and a beautiful young comtesse, who gleefully aided the Ultra-Royalists in influencing the king towards their point of views. A marriage between Louis XVIII and Marie-Antoinette may actually be a happier ending for the both of them: perhaps not love, but perhaps some mutual affection and friendship.
*Apparently the Duc de Vauguyon was appointed Governor of the Children of France—so his charges included not only Louis XVI, but Provence and Artois as well. Louis XVIII's education, like Louis XVI's was well grounded in classics, divinity, mathematics, history, and languages. According to Louis XVIII many years later, he recalled that "Berri was the best at mathematics and sciences, that he (himself) was best at classics and history and that
quant à d'Artois il était presque toujours le dernier ('As for d'Artois, he was almost always at the bottom'). Louis XVIII enjoyed learning and even horrified his mother at age eleven by wanting to learn English—the Dauphine insisted that English should be substituted for Italian, which was considered less dangerous and immoral. Other lessons behavior in the outside world—he was taught that kings should be firm (far different from the lessons instilled in Louis XVI about being meek...) and that the French expected their sovereigns have 'goodness, mildness, and kindness; affability, politeness, and even a sort of familiarity.' Vauguyon also instilled that princes such as Provence should know how to withdraw themselves, to like work, and to know how to reason correctly. Louis XVIII also received a fairly religious education similarly to his brothers; he had a bishop as a preceptor and four
abbés were among his teachers. Divinity proved an important part of this education, and he quoted from the bible just as regularly as he quoted from the classics. His education was judged finalized in 1771—he received his own household, and shortly thereafter his wife. Like Louis XVI's education, it was grounded in religion, morality, and humanities along with focuses in sciences and mathematics—but uncorrupted by the influence of the
Encyclopédistes who Vauguyon despised. Their military educations were altogether neglected, and none of the brothers would receive any significant education or training in that department (though this does not seem unique in the education of 18th century French princes; Louis XV did not have a very thorough military education either).
I definitely think that Louis XVIII would have a firmer backbone in dealing with things. Even if he doesn't keep Maupeou in office because of the desire to appoint his own men, he'll hopefully be able to better choose ministers who can support his vision. Louis XVI going back and restoring the Parlements completely defeated the work Maupeou had accomplished: not only was a political organ revived that could criticize and paralyze the royal government, it destroyed progress towards creating a fairer justice system. Maupeou's plans were essentially realized during the French Revolution, when the justice system was divorced completely from the political system. If Maupeou's reforms had held, the superior councils that were to replace the old Parlements would've been handled by magistrates appointed by the crown and paid by the crown—instead of the old
noblesse de robe who had acquired their positions through venality and used their influence to blockade possible reforms re: taxation and other changes proposed during this period.
Louis XVIII as Louis XVI in this period will still have lots to deal with such as France's crippling debts (with or without involvement in the ARW), stagnation in the army and navy, and of course the overall expenses needed to maintain the court (though I will say that court expenses probably made up a small amount of the total budget: in 1788** the budget was as follows: the Households—42,000,000 Livres; Pensions—47,800,000 Livres; Others—543,000,000 Livres; The Others section is a little murky too as it was listed as a deduction from incomes from the
Pays d'États and included substantial payments to Orléans, Condé, Conti, and others and may have included the
Gages du Conseil which were wages of some sort.) Unfortunately there's no real breakdown of the court / royal household finances from the 17th century to the late 18th century—those published in the 18th century are far from uniform, while some such as Necker's
Compte Rendu use... "innovative" accounting to make France's financial health seem better than it actually was. We can't how much of the total budget the court at Versailles consumed, but perhaps anywhere from 15-20 percent, and estimated at 13 percent in 1788: it was always the third most important expenditure, behind military expenses and the cost of financing the debt. One thing we
do know is that the Princes and Princesses play a prominent role in Louis XVI's budgets—their establishments, numerous and costly were paid out of the king's coffers: this included not only Provence, Artois, and Madame Elisabeth, but also the remaining Mesdames. We also know that despite Louis XVI's attempts to reform the
Maison du Roi, the
Maison de la Reine and the households of the other members of the
Famille Royale partook in such changes hesitantly. Such expenses that Louis XVI in OTL bore included not only the household expenses, but sometimes extended to debts as well: in the 1780s, the Comte de Provence had debts totaling 10 million Livres, while Artois had racked up debts totaling 21 million Livres.
*Most of the above was found in Philip Mansel's biography of Louis XVIII, published in 1981 and again in 1999.
**From Vienna & Versailles: The Courts of Europe's Dynastic Rivals, 1550-1780
