Let's claim it as Guangdong, and if it grows it encompasses guangxi, the Hakka and the Hokkien.
Tbf the want for an imperial army is bc it's strong and that stability came from a strong unifer. If the states were ran well that would be no problem, especially if the common man gets benefits from the new administration.
The imperial army is also a bully that has the ability to
at least eventually subjugate the entire place. They may as well submit to the imperial government as well with that being the case, and hope that they will be given autonomy and other advantageous arrangements from there.
Being
long considered part of China proper - them being given independence as a tributary state is pretty unlikely already. Who knows how this issue of Chinese mercantilism will be resolved? I won't be surprised to see Beijing consider this as a minor crisis especially when compared to all the strife it already dealt with, however.
Perhaps. If the central gov attempts to restrict movement of goods like silks out and cheap items in, and when the merchants protest the gov cracks down as a show of force and attempts to impose a hard ban, pissing off the merchants and cutting off their main source of revenue, so they rebel with the help of the Japanese, who calculate that being able to trade with some areas is better than none.
Basically it relies on Beijing being totally stupid in terms of the economy and disregarding the merchant class which has become much more powerful due to being open for longer and having allies beyond China itself.
It's likely with an inept
Huangdi that had a likewise corrupt bureaucracy; however - by that time - there could already be diplomatic backchannels existing between China, Japan, and even the "lowly" coastal merchant associations that they could all use to preempt such a crisis beginning in the first place.
Besides - permanently poisoning relations with China is an obviously bad idea for Kyoto and Azuchi; hell - they don't even have designs to conquer the entire thing in the first place like the OTL Japanese Empire had. From there, it's more likely for the Japanese to style themselves as an addition or de facto replacement to the already-existing institutions like how they have always been doing since the Kamakura Shogunate first usurped Eastern Japan.
Hmm so they have access to Shanghai? Big if true.
Especially when considering the Chinese settlers at Bireitou - Japan may as well be considered as a part of Chinese civilisation already with how much they can intensify this trade, and make themselves a ubiquitous presence within those regions as well.
Hmm, considering that the only reason Spain is still in Asia is due to the good graces of the Japanese, I don't see the Spanish breaking the treaty as doing so would mean they lose their access to Asia and allowing the Japanese to control Asia, so I think Japan is more liable to break it.
I think Japan could be asking for a leased port in the Palawan islands/make a port in the bits the Spanish aren't at so they can get to Borneo tho. If the Japanese can co opt the Chinese in Borneo and send their own settlers there I could see them comfortably holding Borneo for example.
Also, Maguindanao would hold the Mindanao island easily, which would be good for the sultanate. I defo see them becoming a protectorate that is relatively independent in the Japanese umbrella.
PS the Japanese imposing such a treaty on the Spanish could be seen as a humiliation but they expected much worse and the other European powers know of Japan after their visit in Europe. If anything I see the Europeans respecting the Japanese as a powerful, foreign empire who can wreck them in Asia.
Such are the pains of the first steps in Finlandising the Captain-Generalcy.
Maguindanao is still reliant on the Datu chieftains in actually administrating the place, and I doubt that they have established a modern civil service - or at least a powerful army - that can keep them in line.
Making for such instability - in addition to their raids at Visayas - Manila and Maguindanao will be at war with each other for a long time; the former can't effectively invade Mindanao and even merely respond and retaliate to such provocations with a navy as puny as that, while the latter will be beset with sporadic power struggles and civil wars.
Lmao true, even tho Japan can very much decide what to do themselves, it would be an alliance between equals.
More mad libs: French-backed Japanese colony in Africa. Perhaps Somalia, Kenya or Madagascar?
Dutch South Africa - most likely - and a corporate charter can be established in a way that the Japanese and the French will share over it, especially in terms of its finances.
The military force will still mainly be French, however.
I think attempting to convert catholics into the yamato church would make the most sense.
A Tagalog/Latin rite would be the best compromise for everyone. While it may piss off purists on either sides it keeps most of the former catholics from harbouring hatred against the Japanese gov while the traditional Tagalog tribes could turn to Buddhism or just continue practicing their traditional religion while being affiliated with the Japanese gov as long as they don't head hunt.
It's Pangasinense, Ilocano, and Cagayan Valley languages at this point in time.
And - having sunken so much time and effort over this - the Catholic Pangasinenses can already be described as akin to the Northern Irish that are too proud to give up on that identity defined by conflict.
Yeah divide and conquer is a lot more viable, and letting Japanese commercial power slowly prime the region for a Japanese conquest would smooth things out a bit. Also to feel out how to assimilate/accommodate the catholics.
I don’t know, the Spanish Philippines are kinda serving a buffer at the moment? Also I can see Japanese Shinto-buddhist ethnic enclaves across Muslim south east Asia becoming collaborators under Dutch colonial rule.
A national-level gubernamental and ecclesiastical bureaucracy has already set too much so as to include natives; it will be hard to urge them to dissolve themselves from there, especially with the siege mentality that Filipinos have endured for this century; hence, a country filled with
Blas Piñars that can only be Finlandised at best.
Pardon the
Falange here, but I won't be surprised to see rhetoric like this as a staple of Filipino church sermons:
Viva Cristo Rey! Arriba Filipinas!
Considering that at least some of those Filipino and Spanish bureaucrats and soldiers are going to live as legends within their national mythos - we should really have their dramatis personae. If nothing else but for levity - an ancestor of Mr. Piñar himself may be included as well!
Also - this is a very good opportunity for Japan to have its very first astronaut. (Imagine the car as a carriage, palanquin, or even the unfortunate bloke himself, of course; imagine it as a Japanese woodblock print, even!)
On the reforms:
I think it makes sense that tomoyoshi decreased the armies of the daimyo and increased the size of the shogunal armies to prevent yet another rebellion from continuing.
I could defo see private armies being allowed in the fringes of the Japanese realm like Beireitou, Luzon and Edo/Karafuto, as they're not being ruled as provinces of Japan too. I see a lot of the samurai moving into those fringes BC of the commercial potential into those areas too as there's work there too. 'the frontier samurai/ronin' is a group I could see developing in the colonies.
Luzon is a directly-administered military district, mind you; enfeoffing it to other clans bring no benefit to Azuchi and the region itself.
That said - the end game here is turning the remnant of those daimyo armies into local police forces serving a function and acting similarly to the ones seen in OTL United States, complete with indpendent police departments, counties, and sherriffs.
I defo see them move faster than otl, and I think we'll see them come into conflict with the Japanese eventually.
With the last update about the French - it's likely that they'll eventually enjoy being Japan's "most favoured nation" within Southeast Asia...
I think the Philippines being a buffer is true, although I could see them being pulled into a conflict with Maguindanao. I just think they'd go beyond the Philippines and move into Sulawesi where they start contacting the Dutch. Perhaps they get into conflict in the middle to late 18th century.
I don't think the Shinto Buddhist enclaves would be collaboraters. I think they'd be happy to trade with other Europeans but if it comes down to it the Japanese would be use force that could overwhelm the Dutch, and I could see them building parallel commercial and governmental structures in what are nominally Dutch controlled regions too.
especially when the resurgent Dutch prove to be a potent enough rival that is too willing to act against them.
The Japanese are likely to establish a corporate oligopoly by having their own associations and corporations coexist with those of the Dutch. Nevertheless - the competing Dutch and Japanese forces can enable the Indonesian natives to assert themselves once again by playing a balancing act between the two.
I’d be interested in seeing Spain’s decline in East Asia lead to Holland’s rise or maybe the French/English will get involved? French East Indies anyone? Though I don’t know where they’d be.
The Dutch probably would still be the main power in the region, they took south Africa as otl and I think they already built Batavia as per otl too, which is the gate to the east indies until Burma was conquered and the Brits came in, and before then it was more trading posts and England and co sending money and finished products to get spices sent to Europe, which was dominated by the Dutch anyways as going round Africa was the primary way ships could get to the east indies.
It was around the industrial revolution which pushed Europe to become so much more powerful and begin colonising the rest due to distance and the such, and the weakening of the various sultanates.
Which is why I think Japan could very much colonise Brunei as it was weakening during this time and they can bring a lot more to bear than any European power could. The Dutch could do nothing about it too, and the Brits and French were focused on America at the time, and the east indies was big. Sulawesi is possible too but the Dutch controlled the northern stretch of the island. I could see the Japanese fighting the Dutch for it tho, as are some of the islands that leads to Papua New Guinea and to some sea cucumber areas which the Japanese could exploit and sell to the Chinese (dried sea cucumber is a delicacy in China and Japan).
The makassar went to north Australia which I could see the Japanese go there too.
I would say the French probably step up their game here, I mentioned in a previous post that the defeats in East Asia and bigger French wins against the Spanish Netherlands would mean that they would much more willing to break apart the Spanish Empire instead of inheriting whole because in the original treaty they were promised the Philippines in the partition but with it here being more diminished than OTL, the French wouldn't want it and would instead either want something in the Americas or Europe instead of it, so while they could focus on South East Asia (maybe they take the place of the Dutch in colonizing Indonesia) they would be doing it away from the seemingly "weak" Philippines as well as not wanting to step in the toes of the Japanese.
Honestly I can see a weaker Dutch Republic here, mainly because a strong France is ALWAYS a threat towards the existence of the Dutch state itself given they simply can't compete with them in a actual war, no amount of navy or commercial power can overcome the well experienced, massive French army, not to mention the fact they don't have Ceylon here and have lost Brazil means they're much more likely to break earlier than OTL.
Everyone who is not Dutch may even encourage the bolded part so as to prevent either a European or Japanese hegemony over the region. I don't know how such an arrangement could work, however; what rules and laws are going to be used in such a diplomatic order?