Hmm. So, Sweden-Norway is going to be hit hard by Dutch Disease from the Norwegian Sea oil profits, as you've stated before, and appears like they will generally be a bit more conservative or even authoritarian than in OTL.
However, hints seem to indicate that Denmark is going to get hit hard by the CEW, and possibly be in a much worse position than OTL as well. I've never seen a timeline that screws, or intends to screw, all of Scandinavia, there's usually at least one of the three that do well for themselves. Keen to see where you go with this, but hoping at least one has a happy ending!
Long term Denmark will be fine, just not anywhere near OTL's definition of fine. Can't believe I as a Swede am allowing that to happen but, hey, it's certainly the most realistic path. Copenhagen's participation in the CEW will be measured in a very short increment of time, let's leave it at that.
The thing with Scandinavia is that its development as the cuddly friendly "Nordic model" market capitalist society it enjoys today was extraordinarily fluky and based on a set of circumstances hyper-specific to OTL. My rules with butterflies are weak when it comes to people, because I don't just want to write "fictional people experiencing history" (if I wanted to do that I'd just have stuck to my novels), but with nation-states I try to really think through their development and how they arrive at their endpoint.
This isn't to say that Sweden is going to turn into Francoist Spain or anything, because simply culturally speaking it'd be very hard to make something like that happen (speaking from my position of knowledge as the son of Swedish immigrants). That being said, there is a certain latent conservatism to Scandinavia outsiders don't really see or know about and the idea of them as some kind of socialist paradise misses the forest for the trees... what's made Scandinavia, Sweden and Denmark in particular, so successful is vibrant and innovative knowledge economies achieved by successfully navigating deindustrialization in the late 1980s and especially a
brutal early 1990s, backed by states providing a solid foundation of safety net and encouraging private sector competition where the state bargains with labor on behalf of business. I always tell people that Sweden is one of the most capitalist places on earth, it just doesn't have the cronyism, rent-seeking and red tape that creates all the distortions and issues we have in the US.
That's a long winded way of saying that a Scandinavia that just stays a much of frosty, conservative grumps holed up at their saunas in the woods suspicious of outsiders for way longer isn't hard to pull off, at least north of the Kattegat. Even IOTL, Sweden and Finland didn't
really urbanize until the 1950s and 1960s.
Saddest part is that this plan is far from Lodge's worst idea, both ITTL and ours.
To be fair, this idea is what should happen justice-wise to the Confederacy, even if it is a terrible idea from a strategic standpoint. But Lodge is certainly a fellow who likes to grandstand.
somehow this tl has managed to produce a henry cabot lodge sr W, this needs to be moved to the asb forum
Everybody sharing in my contempt for Henry Cabot Lodge is another good meme for the TL, come to think of it
I am thinking the US would give the various freeman groups access to seized Confederate weapons or US Army surplus and basically point them towards the enemy.
Something along those lines, yes.
The way that the last few updates implied, the whole state will be peeled off from the Confederacy as an independent state
Part of me has debated attaching the El Paso area to Arizona to create a major bordering crossing into Mexico nearer the Midwest, but we'll see. I could also be persuaded that a "free city" around El Paso as a free trade corridor between the US, Texas and Mexico would be interesting, too.
I've been following this timeline for months now, and it's so well written and fascinating! I can't help but think that with the extremely prejudiced views of some of the Long Branch attendees, they wouldn't extract further territorial concessions from the Confederacy. At minimum, the annexation of:
- Kentucky
- NoVa (perhaps between the Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers, as a buffer for DC and Maryland) and Virginia's portion of the Delmarva Peninsula
- Tennessee (either portions or the entirety to deprive the Confederacy of resources/industrial capacity)
- Indian Territory
- Texas (this could look like annexing western Texas and puppetizing the rest of the state, or annexing the entire state and dividing it into several territories)
- Arizona Territory
- Key West
The rest of the Confederacy could be left an independent rump state, perhaps after a period of occupation (either partial or total). The Confederacy would essentially be neutered long-term as a threat to the Union.
Just articulating some thoughts after the last several updates!
What's outlined at Long Branch is not meant to be exhaustive, by any means, more of a rough outline that zeroes in on priorities.
I've struggled with what to do with the IT - while having the US just go "sorry, Cherokees, you chose... poorly" and annexing it and making it Not-Oklahoma as a state eventually would
definitely be on brand with DC/Philly policy towards Natives both ITL and OTL, I feel like that's kind of boring compared to having a reactionary petrostate run by indigenous tribes in the middle of the continent, which to be would be fascinating and also kind of morbidly hilarious in its own way. This is the tension between realism and what's fun to read and write inherent in Alternate History; much as I'd like to poke around in what an Oklahoma with an even larger Native population that's more culturally like Kansas and Nebraska than Texas and Arkansas would be like (sort of like my dalliances with "what's a Baja that's the alt-US's Florida like?", the IT staying out seems more interesting to me.
Ohhh yes!! I'm excited because I used this as exact PoD for one of my own TLs. I'm very interested to see how this plays out in comparison to OTL's affair, and what consequences it has.
Remind me what position Ballinger has in SdM? And will Mr Pinchot and Mr Glavis be involved ITTL's affair? If I'm remembering correctly, while some of the duo's concerns were valid, a lot of the attacks on Ballinger were determined by contemporary reports (by Secretary Ickes) to be entirely spite driven and not based in fact. Ballinger was pretty much innocent and Pinchot was seeking publicity as the egotisical man he was.
It's an entirely different set of circumstances here, granted; Ballinger is Navy Secretary rather than at Interior, so Pinchot wouldn't get involved.