Stupid Luck and Happenstance, Thread III
- Thread starter Peabody-Martini
- Start date
Helene was right in what she did to force an end to the hostilities and more importantly she did it in the right way there may be a cabinet shake up soon and Helene may get a promotion.
Kat would have been a great ruler in the Pre-unifcated Germany but this is a different time, her approach is apparently to let the elected officials run the City-State of Berlin run on a day to day basis but the long range direction it takes is up to Kat, but like Kiki told Ilse all these years ago "Kat thinks that everybody has the right to her opinion" but Kat is running Berlin just like her father Otto ran organized crime in Germany by being in the shadows.
Gerta is still being Gerta by being "outrageous", probably Suse Rosa and Manny asked her not to say anything until they talked to Helene and Hans.
Kat would have been a great ruler in the Pre-unifcated Germany but this is a different time, her approach is apparently to let the elected officials run the City-State of Berlin run on a day to day basis but the long range direction it takes is up to Kat, but like Kiki told Ilse all these years ago "Kat thinks that everybody has the right to her opinion" but Kat is running Berlin just like her father Otto ran organized crime in Germany by being in the shadows.
Gerta is still being Gerta by being "outrageous", probably Suse Rosa and Manny asked her not to say anything until they talked to Helene and Hans.
Like her or loathe her Thatcher's main achievements were about reversing decline and taking decisions which had been deferred by both major parties for roughly 25 years and floating the currency. TTL Britain will be richer (won't have run up the WW2 debt or sold off its overseas investments or run a lot of its manufacturing and railways into the ground) and has no false dawns of Germany, Italy and France not being in much of a position to economically compete. Nor will it have imposed currency controls and between stronger economic competition and more money won't have taken as many bad decisions or put off taking good ones. Labour won't be as far left given the revelations after the fall of the USSR, Rab Butler won't be partly discredited as an appeaser, nor will R H Hudson, Tony Benn's brother Michael will have inherited the family money and Tony will have had a totally different life having had to work for a living for years before entering politics (if he ever did TTL). People like George Grey (Liberal), Bill Shebbeare (Labour) or Guy Gibson, Lord Hartington, Lord Stamp or Roger Bushell for the Conservatives won't have been killed in WW2, nor will millions of other people some of whom will be writers, poets, scientists, engineers, architects, musicians, businessmen, trade union leaders... British economic and political culture will be very different to the OTL 1970s.
Although, Gerta is only ever ‘outrageous’ or ‘frivolous’ up to a certain point, then her solid upper bourgeois values kick in. In her love life and her career, she’s freewheeled for a while, but always cleaved to the long-term decision that brings success with respectability. I think her circumstances growing up had a lot to do with this.
I still think he's "Rook". That he somehow managed to do what Tatiana failed so badly at and joined up without his mother finding out. Possibly by being a civilian contractor, rather than a formal agent of the State.
I think the engagement reveal was less Gerta trying to put one over Helene and more a certain male member of the von Mischner Clan reverting to type and completely forgetting to mention the engagement to his parents. Mind you, Helene did kind of forget to tell Hans that they were engaged, so...
Suse: "Since our mothers are meeting with Auntie Kat for lunch today, I'm fairly certain they'll start planning our wedding for us, so we might want to head that off before they get too involved."
Manny (drops coffee cup): "They're having lunch together? TODAY?!"
Suse: "Yes, I told you last week. "
Manny (going pale): "Oh shit, oh shit, OH SHIT!!"
Suse (looking puzzled): "What's wrong? Why are you so worried about our mo- ... Manny, you DID remember to tell your parents that we are engaged, right?"
Manny: "Ummm.... "
Suse: "OH FOR F@#%S SAKE, MANNY!!!! WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU?!!"
ferdi254
Banned
Old German proverb:
Ein Esel schimpft den anderen Langohr.
There must be an English equivalent but literally it means one donkey is insulting the other one by naming him donkey. Langohr literally means longears but is also another word for donkey. And donkey being seen as a picture for stupidity.
Fits to those three ladies perfectly when it comes to children and for Helena and Kat when it comes to politics.
Ein Esel schimpft den anderen Langohr.
There must be an English equivalent but literally it means one donkey is insulting the other one by naming him donkey. Langohr literally means longears but is also another word for donkey. And donkey being seen as a picture for stupidity.
Fits to those three ladies perfectly when it comes to children and for Helena and Kat when it comes to politics.
ferdi254
Banned
The question is how will this action be perceived by the public?
„This stupid lady did not do zilch against that stupid war no matter how many got killed and wounded but once her son is hurt she makes a big stink“
„Finally someone to make clear that Germans do not stand their sons suffering for the stupid ego of a president of a third rate power.“
Of course both spins will be run by the interested sides but the main question which side prevails is how the war was viewed generally by the public.
„This stupid lady did not do zilch against that stupid war no matter how many got killed and wounded but once her son is hurt she makes a big stink“
„Finally someone to make clear that Germans do not stand their sons suffering for the stupid ego of a president of a third rate power.“
Of course both spins will be run by the interested sides but the main question which side prevails is how the war was viewed generally by the public.
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The real worry would be if Chile was ever able to arm up again and come back for a Round 2. At which point, retroactively it would be 'This wouldn't be a thing if we'd been able to finish the job, but nooooo, that Gottverdamt woman had to make a fuss and make us pull out before we were ready...'
[I see it as highly unlikely, given how comprehensively Chile has been smashed, but...]
Song of the German Marine Infantry in TTL is called "From land to sea- From sea to land" based on the official motto of the Marine Infantry. It has been the subject of countless parodies by the Marines themselves who have proven very adept at making up humorous and frequently vulgar lyrics. The music is from a piece written by John Phillip Sousa called the Liberty Bell March. In OTL this piece of music is known for something completely different, the theme song from Monty Python's Flying Circus, and honestly, do you think that it could ever be anything else?
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Helene as a high ranking member of the government signed off on the intervention in Argentina and probably made full throated statements in support of the mission which was to preserve the sovereignty of Argentina against an expansionist Chilean leadership.
It was only after the Argentinean President chose to continue the war even through the Chilean Army has been pushed back beyond the Argentian-Chilean border in order to pursue a punitive outcome that changed the perceptions of the German people from supporting the intervention to scepticism to in some cases outright opposition.
This was something that the German Government never approved of, signed off on, or wanted to do.
The fact that it appeared the it was the German military was doing the majority of the fighting didn't sit well with the German people.
There will be stories that are leaked about the heated private discussions by the Cabinet that will show that Helene was opposed the mission expansion beyond the original mission well before her son got injured.
It was only after the Argentinean President chose to continue the war even through the Chilean Army has been pushed back beyond the Argentian-Chilean border in order to pursue a punitive outcome that changed the perceptions of the German people from supporting the intervention to scepticism to in some cases outright opposition.
This was something that the German Government never approved of, signed off on, or wanted to do.
The fact that it appeared the it was the German military was doing the majority of the fighting didn't sit well with the German people.
There will be stories that are leaked about the heated private discussions by the Cabinet that will show that Helene was opposed the mission expansion beyond the original mission well before her son got injured.
ferdi254
Banned
Ejpsan no need to leak anything. What is discussed in the Kabinett (round of Ministers (secretaries)) has been public knowledge since the Weimar Republic.
If Helene had been vocally against it before her son got injured it shifts the debate only minutely. Because the question would then be: Why did it take her son to get injured before she DID anything?
And remember ITTL the kids of the emperor had been under enemy fire so pulling strings to get your son out of it will not be seen very favorable. Think of the discussion of at least two US presidents and their service (or non service).
If Helene had been vocally against it before her son got injured it shifts the debate only minutely. Because the question would then be: Why did it take her son to get injured before she DID anything?
And remember ITTL the kids of the emperor had been under enemy fire so pulling strings to get your son out of it will not be seen very favorable. Think of the discussion of at least two US presidents and their service (or non service).
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Remember no Weimar Republic ITTL and there are discussions and then there are "Discussions", in a coalition government while everyone in the government is singing from the same hymnal (more or less) in public, behind the scenes discussions are much more heated with everyone jockeying for positions that will gain them higher office.
Once again Helene could have thought that once the main roadblock to an armistice Gen. Pinochet was Laser Tagged then there was going to be a cease fire but the President of Argentina decided to go much further in a punitive manner against Chile with Germany picking up the tab in both money and blood did apparently Helene had enough.
I have not seen anywhere posted that Helene tried to get Manny out of combat one because Manny would have not go along with it and basically it would have ended any credibility she had with the public.
We don't have enough information on Helene's stance before she took a stand to tell how the public would react. Even cautious statements on 'ending the conflict' or 'preventing an escalation' could be spun to support her later, harsher stance towards peace. (Or the other way round) And she might be lucky. Because while Interior is usually seen as one of the great offices of state, it's not the one directly involved with the war such as the Foreign Minister or the War (Defence?) Minister.
It might also help that perception might be that the battle where her son was wounded was the first big battle on Chilean soil. So stepping beyond the defensive war that she supported until then.
But then a lot depends on how the party reacts, and maybe more so the party base. It's probably more important the public opinion overall. (Though in the pre-internet age, echo-chambers didn't form quite as they do today - the news comes from newspapers, radio and TV and they shape opinion.)
We don't really know a lot about the Democratic Ecology Party. It's certainly got a 'green' slant. Otherwise? Well, Old Richtofen supports it, so it can't be too far from some old liberal or traditional ideas. At the same time, Sophie Scholl and Helene were founding members, so it certainly has a feminist agenda too.
Drawing a few conclusions (both from OTL and from what we do know)... Voters are probably generally among the more well off, though not the big industrialists. More like upper middle class, and likely the more academic inclined among them. More female than male voters. And depending a bit on how it's 'green' core idea is approached - probably more urban than rural. (Though Grandpa Manfred likely used his behind the scenes influence to curb some of the more out there ideas - say towards careful forest and herd management, instead of demanding blanket bans on hunting... Tough to be fair, he'd likely not be opposed to making hunting more exclusive than it was when he was young.)
And unless I missed something, most of them will be happy with a peace negotiated from what is already a position of strength.
In the end, it'll be the people she wouldn't have convinced anyway who'll attack her the most. The warhawks, who want to see Germany crush South America and create a neo-colonial empire. The sexists who insisted that woman have no role in politics in the first place. And the opportunists who will attack her anyway.
So while she and the party might lose some voters, they might gain others. Or the decline might be indistinguishable from the usual coalition fatigue.
And for the matter it might help in the long term - might help this ATL Germany to formulate clear terms of what they want out of a conflict before they intervene, allowing them to get in and out far more cleanly than they would otherwise.
It might also help that perception might be that the battle where her son was wounded was the first big battle on Chilean soil. So stepping beyond the defensive war that she supported until then.
But then a lot depends on how the party reacts, and maybe more so the party base. It's probably more important the public opinion overall. (Though in the pre-internet age, echo-chambers didn't form quite as they do today - the news comes from newspapers, radio and TV and they shape opinion.)
We don't really know a lot about the Democratic Ecology Party. It's certainly got a 'green' slant. Otherwise? Well, Old Richtofen supports it, so it can't be too far from some old liberal or traditional ideas. At the same time, Sophie Scholl and Helene were founding members, so it certainly has a feminist agenda too.
Drawing a few conclusions (both from OTL and from what we do know)... Voters are probably generally among the more well off, though not the big industrialists. More like upper middle class, and likely the more academic inclined among them. More female than male voters. And depending a bit on how it's 'green' core idea is approached - probably more urban than rural. (Though Grandpa Manfred likely used his behind the scenes influence to curb some of the more out there ideas - say towards careful forest and herd management, instead of demanding blanket bans on hunting... Tough to be fair, he'd likely not be opposed to making hunting more exclusive than it was when he was young.)
And unless I missed something, most of them will be happy with a peace negotiated from what is already a position of strength.
In the end, it'll be the people she wouldn't have convinced anyway who'll attack her the most. The warhawks, who want to see Germany crush South America and create a neo-colonial empire. The sexists who insisted that woman have no role in politics in the first place. And the opportunists who will attack her anyway.
So while she and the party might lose some voters, they might gain others. Or the decline might be indistinguishable from the usual coalition fatigue.
And for the matter it might help in the long term - might help this ATL Germany to formulate clear terms of what they want out of a conflict before they intervene, allowing them to get in and out far more cleanly than they would otherwise.
altamiro
Banned
The OTL German Greens had some outright Völkische, blood-and-soil founding members opposing modernity as such.