The eagle's left head

[Quinkana]

I'm glad that the Venetians are pacified for now, and with the Greek colonies being under Lascarid control there is no doubt who is top dog in the East Med: the Third Empire is without a doubt hegemony of the Eastern Med, with no one being strong enough to knock them down for now. The fact that the Venetians lost in such humiliating fashion due to losing their colonial empire and having recruitment problems after the straits are closed would be a huge black eye to the republic.

Well, the OTL was a great example on how venetian policy was transformed. Once Venice lost its thalassocracy to the Ottomans, they focused on industry. If memory serves right, at some point Ragusa had a greater tonnage of merchant vessels that Venice. The Venetian patricians stopped being captains and invested heavily on their estates and industries. I would argue that this process had started by the beginning of the 15th century. At the same time, their oligarchic system ossified and social mobility decreased.

That would be very interesting for Venice to go for this, since it would be one of the few ways the Venetian polity would survive, but would it go and attempt to control the Po Valley as per otl, with the third empire being their enemy and allies to the third empire being there?

Also I don't see Venice not trying to hobble the third empire at least once or twice. This is a humiliation that I don't think the Venetians won't try to avenge at least once.

Wait a minute, which islands are we talking about exactly ?, because I would much prefer a Sardinia governed by a local dynasty ( for once there is the possibility, so that he can entirely concentrate on improving the local infrastructure and not treat us like a colony ( the only ones who in OTL had given a minimum of attention to the island were, ironically, the Spaniards, rather than their Savoy "" compatriots "" ) rather than instead ending up being annexed to the former Despotate of Syracuse, thank you, but I would prefer to end up back in the hands of the Aragonese in case such a situation is even remotely taken into consideration ( Syracusian annexation of Sardegna ) , rather than the Savoys ( who for us Sardinians are not exactly the brightest example of a good government, to put it in a polite way.... ) if instead we mean Cyprus, Crete and Rhodes, then it's a completely different matter, and I am more than in favor of seeing them incorporated into the possessions of the Sicilian Basileus ( even if I have a small weakness for the Kingdom crusader of Cyprus and for the knights of Malta ... oops I meant Hospitallers 😜 )

Yeah I agree that Sardinia is better ruled by themselves, and with the Lascarids and the local conditions in that point in time I could see them succeeding in doing so. Maybe we see Sardinia take over Corsica too, which would be interesting.

 

[galileo-034]

Great update. It will be interesting to see how the war starts between the ottomans and the new byzantine / Sicily empire.

Most likely possibility. Ottoman raiding parties getting out of hand/

Something like the Hafsids' OTL attack on Malta in 1429 for example?

Speaking of which, I'm curious to see how things evolve in the relations between the Lascarid Empire and the other big muslim players of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean, be it the Mameluks or the Hafsids. Between the Third Sicilian War* (1344-1353) and the War of St Titus (1364-1372), the Lascarids have displaced both the Angevins and the Venetians from the picture.
I could add they put Aragon out of the picture as a result of the Second Sicilian War* (1315-1335), between the end of the Catalan adventure in Greece, Frederick's dynasty in Sicily or the ill fated intervention of Alfonso IV at Malta, and except for the war of the Straits, they have been mostly been absorbed/distracted by Spain.
So even if Genoa has still Galata and the Black Sea trading posts, Syracuse has become the de facto hegemon of the region, and that must count big on the wider diplomatic arena.

* If you accept that nomenclature, with the First Sicilian war being the War of the Vespers.

 

[Chernabog90]

Speaking of which, I'm curious to see how things evolve in the relations between the Lascarid Empire and the other big muslim players of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean, be it the Mameluks or the Hafsids. Between the Third Sicilian War* (1344-1353) and the War of St Titus (1364-1372), the Lascarids have displaced both the Angevins and the Venetians from the picture.

I kinda suggested that their relationship should be enemy of my enemies is my friend logic for the relationship between the Sicilian and mameluks.

 

[Xenophonte]

So even if Genoa has still Galata and the Black Sea trading posts, Syracuse has become the de facto hegemon of the region, and that must count big on the wider diplomatic arena.

After the just finished war with Venetia, confirming the Sicilians central/eastern Med., hegemony, is in Genoa interest to keep the somewhat friendly relations with them. Cause, actually in case of conflict, and besides from the damage to their commerce they would be cut out from their Black Sea possessions/trading posts, most of whom would be practically defenseless while the rest 'd be left to their own resources...

 

[galileo-034]

I kinda suggested that their relationship should be enemy of my enemies is my friend logic for the relationship between the Sicilian and mameluks.

In what sense it remains to be seen. If the Ottomans are strong enough to draw the bulk of Timur's attention to them like OTL, then it leaves the door open for the Mameluks to continue their regional hegemonic ambitions. They did vassalize Cyprus at some point in the early 15th century I believe.
I'm more seeing the region settling along a Lascarid vs Mameluk fracture line, like the ERE of old versus the Ssassanids. At this point, without the resources of the Balkans to empower their resurgence after the Timurid invasion and solidify their hegemony, the Ottomans are going to be on the periphery of the contest between Cairo and Syracuse by the late 15th century. They are not enemies yet, like the Romans were not yet the enemies of Parthia before the 1st century BC, but they are on a course to become so.
Pending that, there is no so much reasons that would push Cairo to be particularly leaning on the Lascarids; they have not yet collided with the Ottomans in Anatolia, so they don't have much in terms of common enemies, and they won't have any more if the Lascarid prevail in the Balkans after the Timurid invasion (cut the Straits at Gallipoli and Constantinople, entice/help Serbian and Bulgarian rebellions, and finish off Turkish Thrace, while the Sons of Osman are at each other's throats in Anatolia).
The Ottomans may resurge to unite only Anatolia ITTL, but that won't never rise to the level of threatening Mameluks without their European resources and even less compell Cairo to be friendly with Syracuse.

 

[Quinkana]

In what sense it remains to be seen. If the Ottomans are strong enough to draw the bulk of Timur's attention to them like OTL, then it leaves the door open for the Mameluks to continue their regional hegemonic ambitions. They did vassalize Cyprus at some point in the early 15th century I believe.

I don't think the Mameluks would be able to do this ittl. Syracuse would do so before the Mamelukes, and probably will in this war they're waging.

If Syracuse doesn't do so rn and the Mamelukes roll up with a navy the Sicilians will show them why they are strong enough to beat the Venetians.

I'm more seeing the region settling along a Lascarid vs Mameluk fracture line, like the ERE of old versus the Ssassanids. At this point, without the resources of the Balkans to empower their resurgence after the Timurid invasion and solidify their hegemony, the Ottomans are going to be on the periphery of the contest between Cairo and Syracuse by the late 15th century. They are not enemies yet, like the Romans were not yet the enemies of Parthia before the 1st century BC, but they are on a course to become so.

I do think we will see something akin to this, as the Ottomans would be neutralised or be slowly conquered by the Lascarids. A base from Egypt is quite a good place to build up control over the Levant, while the Sicilians will go from Cyprus to Cilicia and into Syria.

I would love to see a Christian state built around Cilicia and Syria.

Pending that, there is no so much reasons that would push Cairo to be particularly leaning on the Lascarids; they have not yet collided with the Ottomans in Anatolia, so they don't have much in terms of common enemies, and they won't have any more if the Lascarid prevail in the Balkans after the Timurid invasion (cut the Straits at Gallipoli and Constantinople, entice/help Serbian and Bulgarian rebellions, and finish off Turkish Thrace, while the Sons of Osman are at each other's throats in Anatolia).

I think its likely that we could get a Venetian-Mameluk alliance against the Lascarids like how a similar alliance formed against the Portuguese.

The Ottomans may resurge to unite only Anatolia ITTL, but that won't never rise to the level of threatening Mameluks without their European resources and even less compell Cairo to be friendly with Syracuse.

If the Ottomans were denied the Balkans they will not be able to unite Anatolia, the Timurids crushed them there and without the refugium of the Balkans Ottoman power would just collapse. And hell the Ottomans wouldn't do as good with the Lascarids expanding around the same period into Serbia and maybe Bulgaria after they take what they want in the quickly collapsing Serbian state.

There's a huge possibility that the Ottomans get crushed by Timur and the Lascarids attacking them from both sides.a

 

[goumaister]

In what sense it remains to be seen. If the Ottomans are strong enough to draw the bulk of Timur's attention to them like OTL, then it leaves the door open for the Mameluks to continue their regional hegemonic ambitions. They did vassalize Cyprus at some point in the early 15th century I believe.
I'm more seeing the region settling along a Lascarid vs Mameluk fracture line, like the ERE of old versus the Ssassanids. At this point, without the resources of the Balkans to empower their resurgence after the Timurid invasion and solidify their hegemony, the Ottomans are going to be on the periphery of the contest between Cairo and Syracuse by the late 15th century. They are not enemies yet, like the Romans were not yet the enemies of Parthia before the 1st century BC, but they are on a course to become so.
Pending that, there is no so much reasons that would push Cairo to be particularly leaning on the Lascarids; they have not yet collided with the Ottomans in Anatolia, so they don't have much in terms of common enemies, and they won't have any more if the Lascarid prevail in the Balkans after the Timurid invasion (cut the Straits at Gallipoli and Constantinople, entice/help Serbian and Bulgarian rebellions, and finish off Turkish Thrace, while the Sons of Osman are at each other's throats in Anatolia).
The Ottomans may resurge to unite only Anatolia ITTL, but that won't never rise to the level of threatening Mameluks without their European resources and even less compell Cairo to be friendly with Syracuse.

I don't think Bayezid would be foolish enough to rival Timur while in Europe he has to deal with the Laskarids. Not to even mention the Nicopolis Crusade in the meantime. I actually would see the Ottomans submitting to Timur to either have free reign in Europe or to even drag him into conflict with the Laskarids.
First though we shall see the Crusade take place. Maybe the Laskarid excommunication and dominance in the Hellas will play a role to avoid it as it was the case with the Smyrniote Crusade but I see Hungary getting in against the Ottomans to gain influence in Wallachia and Northern Bulgaria.
Even before the Crusade in 1396 we have the Ottoman invasion of Serbia in 1389 which could or maybe should be directed towards the Laskarid Hellas. This is the main conflict coming in Theodore's way.
Well in general what I want to point out is that Timur is 30years away and ALOT of things can drastically change the current situation.

 

[Xenophonte]

I think its likely that we could get a Venetian-Mameluk alliance against the Lascarids like how a similar alliance formed against the Portuguese.

Venetia after to lose her fleet/be defeated just had manage to survive/avoid to be besieged, at the expense of the loss of her colonial empire and with it her status of great Power.
Given that, I tend to think that the Serenissima, now with only the resources of Terraferma plus the lack, for the foreseeable future, to have enough resources to rebuild their fleet at prewar levels and experienced crews, for manning it.
Would be probable, at very least, to be strongly hampered their efforts to leave their (IMO) current status of a North Italian (land) power...

If the Ottomans were denied the Balkans they will not be able to unite Anatolia, the Timurids crushed them there and without the refugium of the Balkans Ottoman power would just collapse. And hell the Ottomans wouldn't do as good with the Lascarids expanding around the same period into Serbia and maybe Bulgaria after they take what they want in the quickly collapsing Serbian state.

I think worthy to be noted that OTL Timur's expansion/conquest wars in the M. East first (1400 Siege of Damascus) and especially to Anatolia / temporal demise of the Ottoman Sultanate (1402 Ankara battle), at this point of the time, if not butterflied/changed, would probably still be decades away...

 

[TeluguKhan]

Venetia after to lose her fleet/be defeated just had manage to survive/avoid to be besieged, at the expense of the loss of her colonial empire and with it her status of great Power.
Given that, I tend to think that the Serenissima, now with only the resources of Terraferma plus the lack, for the foreseeable future, to have enough resources to rebuild their fleet at prewar levels and experienced crews, for manning it.
Would be probable, at very least, to be strongly hampered their efforts to leave their (IMO) current status of a North Italian (land) power...
What is stopping Hungary, Austria, or Milano from carving up Venice now that its lost its fleet, and its great power status

 

[Xenophonte]

What is stopping Hungary, Austria, or Milano from carving up Venice now that its lost its fleet, and its great power status

Actually, Austria or the Empire would be of no concern,so as, I believe, that neither would likely be the Hungarian kingdom, if not antagonized, after that they had won their own war with Venetia. The main concern, IMO, would be either Milano or if managed to be formed without Papal interference/opposition, some alliance/coalition of Venetia neighbours...
But, basically it would depend on as would the politically weakened and decimated Venetian elites would manage to keep the current regime or if they would be displaced in favor of new elites. And if they would have a chance to exploit and to defend Terraferma, that, IIRC, at this time it besides from Mestre (proper mainland Venetia), it was comprised mostly from the annexed the territories of the Veronese communes of Treviso and Bassano del Grappa.

 

[galileo-034]

I think its likely that we could get a Venetian-Mameluk alliance against the Lascarids like how a similar alliance formed against the Portuguese.

How so? The Venetians OTL were in direct proximity with the Mameluks and then the Ottomans. Here, the Venetians have just been bottled up in the Adriatic. The only allies Venice can make or support are those in North Italy or in the western Balkans.

I don't think the Mameluks would be able to do this ittl. Syracuse would do so before the Mamelukes, and probably will in this war they're waging.

That example is a point about patterns of Mameluk expansionism, not about it happening ITTL. Eliminating Venice, the Hospitalers and soon enough Cyprus, from the scene means the Lascarids will be the only ones (implied the only naval power) left standing against the Mameluks.
The Ottomans, the other Turkish beyliks, the Hafsids, the Aragonese, Venice or Genoa, will all be left on the periphery of such showdown.

I would love to see a Christian state built around Cilicia and Syria.

That would be Armenian Cilicia. But too bad, it fell to the Mamluks in 1375; they already lost Adana and Tarsus to the Mamluks and their Ramadanid vassals in 1359.
It might be a little too late to change anything about it at this point in the TL, even if the Lascarids conquer Cyprus in the next couple TTL years.

The only chance would be that there be some Hethumid prince (or any Armenian noble of some standing) around to marry one of Theodore II's sisters, or if Marie of Korikos remarried into one of the grand houses of the Lascarid Empire, and reconquer Cilicia from the Ramadanids and the Mameluks on the back of a Lascarid mercenaries. That's because helping Levon V or any member of House Lusignan to recover it would be out of the question for Syracuse, and a direct conquest into the Lascarid realm would bring unwanted "complications" ( be it the commitment of resources to constantly defend it, or the diplomatic cost of it, regarding relations with the Karamanids, the most promising ally for the Lascarids in the regions against Ottomans and the coastal beyliks).

Fall of Sis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ramadanid Emirate - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[HunterX]

The Lascarids and Mamluks don't really have much in terms competing interests, I'm not seeing why they'd end up as dedicated enemies, especially as the Alexandrian crusade never happened to trigger Mamluk interest in Cyprus.

 

[galileo-034]

The Lascarids and Mamluks don't really have much in terms competing interests, I'm not seeing why they'd end up as dedicated enemies, especially as the Alexandrian crusade never happened to trigger Mamluk interest in Cyprus.

Not yet...

The same could be said of Rome and Parthia during the 2nd century BC (yet once the legions seized Syria, the clock was ticking), of France and Castille in the 14th century, England and Ivan the Terrible's Russia in the 16th century, yet we got seven centuries of Roman-Persian Wars, the great struggle between France and the Habsburgs from the Italian Wars to the War of Spanish succession, or the Great Game...

The Mamluks controlled very important trade routes, and that alone is bound to create serious contentions between the Lascarid Empire's mercantile aristocracy and Cairo. Add to it possible disputes over Cyprus, Cilicia, and why not put Sicilian encroachment in Tunisia and Cyrenaica on top of it...
Venice didn't have the resources to stand up alone against the full might of the Ottomans, so her options were more limited and dependent on outside support. The Lascarid Empire on the other hand is a well established power, and growing juggernaut, so they are less likely to restrain themselves like Venice would have done. Pulling an Alexandrian raid like OTL 1365 crusade every once in a while to "negotiate" tarif rates is possibly in the cards.

 

[X Oristos]

The Lascarids and Mamluks don't really have much in terms competing interests, I'm not seeing why they'd end up as dedicated enemies, especially as the Alexandrian crusade never happened to trigger Mamluk interest in Cyprus.

Indeed ! Without an Alexandrian Crusade, the Mamluks will continue their previous policy. If anything, the Lascarids have every reason to be friendly to Cairo. Due to geography, they can be the most important trade partner of the Mamluk Sultanate. They have silver (serbian silver exports included), mastic and they don't care much on papal decrees - they can export timber and metals to the Mamluks. It can be as prosperous relationship as the OTL Venetian-Mamluk one.

Sicilian encroachment in Tunisia and Cyrenaica on top of it...

I doubt that the Sicilians have any interests at all in Cyrenaica. There are no greek-speakers there nor any christians, while the region is of negligible economic value at best.

Tunisia is far away from Cairo and I am not sure that the Mamluks will care a lot about it. At this point they are past their prime and they have open fronts over their levantine possessions (revolts and future challenges from Ottomans, White Sheep and Black Sheep Turkomans). A friendly christian power that ensures there will be no more pesky crusades will be appreciated by the mamluk elite.

Speaking of Tunisia, I think the Sicilians will have major commitments in the Balkans and western Asia Minor and they won't be able to expand in Tunisia. Using their fleet and gran supplies to blackmail persuade the Tunisians to pay protection money tribute is another thing.

 

[galileo-034]

Speaking of Tunisia, I think the Sicilians will have major commitments in the Balkans and western Asia Minor and they won't be able to expand in Tunisia. Using their fleet and gran supplies to blackmail persuade the Tunisians to pay protection money tribute is another thing.

More or less what I had in mind.

I doubt that the Sicilians have any interests at all in Cyrenaica. There are no greek-speakers there nor any christians, while the region is of negligible economic value at best.

Sponge fishing perhaps? If I'm not wrong, Cyrenaica is closer to Crete than to Alexandria, and if Greek/Cretan fishing crews venture in these waters (confident of the protection the Lascarid fleet provides), the expansion of Greek economic interests in the region would invite political/military encroachment.
I remember reading in another thread that the Greeks did have a significant economic presence with fishing crews in the region by the 19th century and that it would have made a good candidate for colonial expansion (in "Pride goes before a fall" I think it was). I don't think it too unbelievable that such activity develop and Cyrenaica gradually moves into the Lascarid sphere, and they start emulating their ancestors in founding colonies to support it, or rather get enclaves in concession. Before long, you'd find this province, on the periphery of the Mamluk Sultanate, under the de facto sway of Syracuse.

 

[Quinkana]

Would be probable, at very least, to be strongly hampered their efforts to leave their (IMO) current status of a North Italian (land) power...

I think we'd just see Venice try to keep control of the Po valley and that's about it, which I think they could do for quite a while.

I think worthy to be noted that OTL Timur's expansion/conquest wars in the M. East first (1400 Siege of Damascus) and especially to Anatolia / temporal demise of the Ottoman Sultanate (1402 Ankara battle), at this point of the time, if not butterflied/changed, would probably still be decades away...

I don't think the Lascarids could've conquered Anatolia from the Ottomans, but I could defo see them fighting over the Balkans (and the Lascarids controlling more than the ottomans) before Timur arrives. While Timur's armies are fighting the Ottomans, do you think the Lascarids won't take the opportunity to permanently kick the Ottomans out of the Balkans?

How so? The Venetians OTL were in direct proximity with the Mameluks and then the Ottomans. Here, the Venetians have just been bottled up in the Adriatic. The only allies Venice can make or support are those in North Italy or in the western Balkans.

it depends on their navy. For example, if the Mameluks believe that their navy is good enough to bust open the Adriatic they may just try to get Venice on their side.

That example is a point about patterns of Mameluk expansionism, not about it happening ITTL. Eliminating Venice, the Hospitalers and soon enough Cyprus, from the scene means the Lascarids will be the only ones (implied the only naval power) left standing against the Mameluks.
The Ottomans, the other Turkish beyliks, the Hafsids, the Aragonese, Venice or Genoa, will all be left on the periphery of such showdown.

I mean ofc, it'd mostly be two empires clashing on sea at least in the early days, but I don't see them doing much at this point. Maybe we'd get more interaction as the Sicilians start trying to enter the Levant in the 1500s.

But by that point the Mameluks are also a weakening power, and I do wonder if we'd see Arab christian states be a possibility in the region.

That would be Armenian Cilicia. But too bad, it fell to the Mamluks in 1375; they already lost Adana and Tarsus to the Mamluks and their Ramadanid vassals in 1359.
It might be a little too late to change anything about it at this point in the TL, even if the Lascarids conquer Cyprus in the next couple TTL years.

The only chance would be that there be some Hethumid prince (or any Armenian noble of some standing) around to marry one of Theodore II's sisters, or if Marie of Korikos remarried into one of the grand houses of the Lascarid Empire, and reconquer Cilicia from the Ramadanids and the Mameluks on the back of a Lascarid mercenaries. That's because helping Levon V or any member of House Lusignan to recover it would be out of the question for Syracuse, and a direct conquest into the Lascarid realm would bring unwanted "complications" ( be it the commitment of resources to constantly defend it, or the diplomatic cost of it, regarding relations with the Karamanids, the most promising ally for the Lascarids in the regions against Ottomans and the coastal beyliks).

I could see a reconquest of Cilicia from Cyprus, and the justification for it could just be from 'retaking rightful lands of the empire' to 'spreading christianity' to 'here's the newest hethumid prince and we'll support his claim to the throne'.

I could see it happen in the future if the Lascarids continue expanding around the Med. And in all honesty the empire that is being built in the Balkans right now could spread into lands that weren't ruled by Christians for centuries.

 

[X Oristos]

Sponge fishing perhaps? If I'm not wrong, Cyrenaica is closer to Crete than to Alexandria, and if Greek/Cretan fishing crews venture in these waters (confident of the protection the Lascarid fleet provides), the expansion of Greek economic interests in the region would invite political/military encroachment.
I remember reading in another thread that the Greeks did have a significant economic presence with fishing crews in the region by the 19th century and that it would have made a good candidate for colonial expansion (in "Pride goes before a fall" I think it was). I don't think it too unbelievable that such activity develop and Cyrenaica gradually moves into the Lascarid sphere, and they start emulating their ancestors in founding colonies to support it, or rather get enclaves in concession. Before long, you'd find this province, on the periphery of the Mamluk Sultanate, under the de facto sway of Syracuse.

That was indeed the case for the second half of the 19th century. But sponge fishing became a major industry for small greek islands, after the standard diving dress was invented and was firstly introduced in Greece in 1863. Before that, sponge fishing was very limited to shallow waters and a very small industry.