AH challenge: a wider Falklands war

[oudi14]

Since today is the 30th anniversary, why not a Falklands scenario.
In OTL, hostilities spread beyond the Falklands themselves, into South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, which were Falklands dependancies [although there were no shots fired in the South Sandwich group]. How can we create conditions where actual fighting does occur on say, Southern Thule, and also on the South Orkneys, and South Shetland Islands, and also on Graham Land? A bit of a stretch, but maybe someone can come up with a plausible scenario.

Any takers

 

[Cook]

Operation Mikado, DLB’s truly insane proposal for an SAS raid on An Argentine mainland air base on Tierra del Fuego.

 

[Ash's Boomstick]

Yeah and more than that one sgt would have quit rather than commit suicide, in fact youd probably see the first full scale refusal for a mission since WW1.

 

[juanml82]

You could get some officer will balls to garrison the South Georgia, so you'll get shooting there. You can also get Operation Mikado, as mentioned, and Operation Algeciras (an Argentine attack by paramilitary forces on Gibraltar) done.
Those things don't need too much of a POD.

For an even wider conflict things get more unlikely. Get someone other than Carter as the American president in the late '70s, so there are no arms embargos so Chile and Argentina are better equipped. Pinochet might feel confident enough to join if threatened enough (unlikely). Argentina would have the P2 Neptunes working, so the British task force is detected more often and both carriers are hit. As a consequence, either the French or the Americans send their own carriers to assist the British.

 

[Top hats daily]

Chile vs Argentina lights up during the conflict, or have mass executions.

 

[Cook]

An Argentinian Marines Engineering detachment land on Ascension Island and destroy the airfield runways there in conjunction to the landings at Port Stanley to prevent British resupply of the Task Force.


They then land on the Frisian Islands before invading the north of Germany.

 

[Plumber]

What if Begin gets the Israel lobby on the Argentine side? Monroe Doctrine blah blah? That would be interesting.

 

[Petros >Peter Fergus<]

Spain snatches Gibraltar at the same time?

Any other outstanding claims on Britain at this time?

 

[RandomChance]

Spain sides with UK to reclaim Argentina....

 

[Archibald]

r the French or the Americans send their own carriers to assist the British.

Involving the french carriers would be fine. Particularly if the Crusaders were replaced by navalized Mirage F1s, and the Super Etendard by A-7s.

The POD could be more crimes like this one http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Léonie_Duquet

 

[krull1m]

An Argentinian Marines Engineering detachment land on Ascension Island and destroy the airfield runways there .

Oh god, I remember that thread! It was rather....entertaining/daft/painful*

*Delete as appropriate

 

[DD951]

Spain snatches Gibraltar at the same time?

Any other outstanding claims on Britain at this time?

Spain sides with UK to reclaim Argentina....

Couple little problems with that scenario-

1. Spain was accepted into NATO in 1981, formally joining in 1982
2. Gibraltar is covered under Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty

 

[Petros >Peter Fergus<]

The point of divergence would have to be sufficient to keep Spain out of NATO, without changing the delicate set of considerations that led to the Falklands in the first place.

I don't know how long Gibraltar could hold out, but taking it back would be very tricky indeed. Then again, taking back the Falklands was very tricky.

 

[Blackadder mk 2]

I recall reading something about Argentina planning to attack Gibraltar in a raid to somehow intimidate the British government but chose not to due to that pesky common sense thing.

 

[Julius Vogel]

Or perhaps the Argentinians attempt to raid Gibraltar, but for reason of incompetance accidentally raid La Linea instead, after local police run into them. Ruh-roh!

I could see that happening, given how close the town is (now at least) to Gibraltar

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Plumber, Begin or AIPAC supporting a dying junta Israel kept sending kidnap teams to visit for elderly Nazis...even as Israel has more serious concerns in Lebanon? Zero chance.


Also there was fighting on South Georgia, at the start when the Argentines landed and later as the first area retaken by the British. Led to a bit of a shock to find an officer wanted for crimes against French and Swedish citizens in command...

 

[Astrodragon]

Spain sides with UK to reclaim Argentina....

Followed by the RCN sinking the Spanish Fishing Fleet?

 

[Andy_H]

I recall reading something about Argentina planning to attack Gibraltar in a raid to somehow intimidate the British government but chose not to due to that pesky common sense thing.

Hi,First post ever on this site. But this peeked my interest.

Gibraltar is classed as a NATO treaty location I believe, therefore should Argentine attack it or even more insainly Spain attempt to retake it, I would imagine worst case this could activate the NATO pack against Spain and/or Argentina (though I imagine cooler heads would prevail even if this had occured)

A further way to escalate it would be to formally get Chilie on side with the British or to get agreement for South Africa (as I believe the British tried) to fly aircraft (read Vulcans) from bases on the western coast.

Andy

 

[RPW@Cy]

Plumber, Begin or AIPAC supporting a dying junta Israel kept sending kidnap teams to visit for elderly Nazis...even as Israel has more serious concerns in Lebanon? Zero chance.

Actually, Begin's support for Argentina during the war is apparently OTL. Speaking as a Brit who's always been sympathetic to Israel, this seriously annoyed me when I first heard about it. I suppose with the POD in mind this could have been done openly instead of secretly, with the Israelis seeking to join in by harassing the British military bases on Cyprus or something. I've no idea how this would play out in the US though.

 

[juanml82]

Hi,First post ever on this site. But this peeked my interest.

Gibraltar is classed as a NATO treaty location I believe, therefore should Argentine attack it or even more insainly Spain attempt to retake it, I would imagine worst case this could activate the NATO pack against Spain and/or Argentina (though I imagine cooler heads would prevail even if this had occured)

A further way to escalate it would be to formally get Chilie on side with the British or to get agreement for South Africa (as I believe the British tried) to fly aircraft (read Vulcans) from bases on the western coast.

Andy

The Argentine plan was to have some warship sunk while in Gibraltar by former guerrillas which were in exile in Spain, as had been persecuted by the dictatorship. As no official Argentine force would have done it, it provided the Argentine government with a way to wash hands and claim they had nothing to do with it. Whether NATO countries would choose to buy that or not is another matter.