AHC: Portugal-Leon and no Castile-Aragon by the end of the Reconquista

[I_am_Unk]

What are the series of PoDs that could end up resulting in Iberia looking something like this by the end of the Reconquista (1492)? There are only 3 conditions to be met to arrive at this scenario:
1- At one point, Portugal will inherit the throne of Leon and dominate the union;
2- Castile and Aragon must not unite nor be close to unitying like in OTL;
3- The Kingdom of Navarre is to remain an independent country.

I did make a thread similar to this more than one year ago specifically exploring the PoD where Portugal unites with Leon in 1230 instead of those lands going to Castile upon Alfonso IX's death. Now, I'm curious to know what other PoDs could have landed us in such a timeline. Timelines such as Alfonso IX living longer or even a dynastic union between Portugal and Leon in the previous century are equally acceptable, as long as Portugal doesn't end up as the junior partner of said union.

 

[Mildtryth]

Have Fernando III's elder half-brother live longer, produce some descendants and hope this eventually results in Portugal inheriting the kingdom.

 

[holycookie]

View attachment 906623

The way the map looks it makes sense for France and Portugal to split Iberia. Portugal gets Castile, France gets Navarre, and Catalonia (the Hispanic March). And the rest is divided between the two. I don't know who would get the Balearic Islands, I would say France probably. Especially with the French focus in the Mediterranean and the Portuguese one in Asia.

Timelines such as Alfonso IX living longer or even a dynastic union between Portugal and Leon in the previous century are equally acceptable, as long as Portugal doesn't end up as the junior partner of said union.

you can have Castile uniting with Portugal instead of Aragon, this should maintain a more equal relationship between the two with the capital being Lisbon.

 

[Taunay]

@Kellan Sullivan @Kurd Gossemer @Aluma

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

A more disastrous military results and waning kings who rule less and less effectively with time, the reason Castile became so big was because they both managed to win several times alongside having a good diplomacy and stable lands to attract kingdoms to join in with them. Remove that and Portugal will fill in that void and Aragon will be too busy with France.

 

[TheLivingStorm]

This almost creates a Divergences of Darkness scenario but a possibility is that Afonso I of Portugal's heir Sancho is never born or dies early leaving him with no son and making it so one of his daughters or their kids inherit. The only daughter of Afonso to have a kid is Urraca who luckily was married to Ferdinand II of Leon however before Afonso died their marriage was annulled but not before having a son the future Alfonso IX of Leon. With Afonso having no sons and with only one daughter with a son it is extremely easy to make it so that after Afonso dies in 1185 Ferdinand pushes for his son to be King of Portugal, at this point Urraca was a nun, and after Ferdinand dies in 1188 the Kingdom of Portugal-Leon will exist of course how long it last and if Alfonso has kids is up for debate but you wanted a how and here it is. For Castille I have no answer for that I would have to do a bit of quick reading for that.

Edit: Question does the result have to end up like the map?

 

[I_am_Unk]

This almost creates a Divergences of Darkness scenario but a possibility is that Afonso I of Portugal's heir Sancho is never born or dies early leaving him with no son and making it so one of his daughters or their kids inherit. The only daughter of Afonso to have a kid is Urraca who luckily was married to Ferdinand II of Leon however before Afonso died their marriage was annulled but not before having a son the future Alfonso IX of Leon. With Afonso having no sons and with only one daughter with a son it is extremely easy to make it so that after Afonso dies in 1185 Ferdinand pushes for his son to be King of Portugal, at this point Urraca was a nun, and after Ferdinand dies in 1188 the Kingdom of Portugal-Leon will exist of course how long it last and if Alfonso has kids is up for debate but you wanted a how and here it is. For Castille I have no answer for that I would have to do a bit of quick reading for that.

Edit: Question does the result have to end up like the map?

Answering your last question (because I haven't the time yet to read everythjng with caution): not necessarily? That map is based on the discussion on the thread of that Alfonso IX scenario I talked about in the first post. The 3 points above the map are more important than the map itself, which serves as a visualizarion of the scenario.

 

[TheLivingStorm]

Answering your last question (because I haven't the time yet to read everythjng with caution): not necessarily? That map is based on the discussion on the thread of that Alfonso IX scenario I talked about in the first post. The 3 points above the map are more important than the map itself, which serves as a visualizarion of the scenario.

Well, then seems I get to obliterate history then going to post a continuation later because I'm busy but eventually I'll get to it I have gotten a bit to invested in this.

 

[I_am_Unk]

you can have Castile uniting with Portugal instead of Aragon, this should maintain a more equal relationship between the two with the capital being Lisbon.

I guess that would be an option, but wouldn't Castile eventually become the major partner of the union? They do have quite a bit more population than Portugal after all. Why would the capital of such union be Lisbon?

A more disastrous military results and waning kings who rule less and less effectively with time, the reason Castile became so big was because they both managed to win several times alongside having a good diplomacy and stable lands to attract kingdoms to join in with them. Remove that and Portugal will fill in that void and Aragon will be too busy with France.

What are the consequences for Castile in this case? I don't know much of how these types of things work, but Portugal started as a County under the Crown of León and eventually gained its independence when the King of León had its influence over the region weakened. Is it possible that a breakaway country (perhaps an independent Kingdom of Toledo) might happen if following TTL?

This almost creates a Divergences of Darkness scenario but a possibility is that Afonso I of Portugal's heir Sancho is never born or dies early leaving him with no son and making it so one of his daughters or their kids inherit. The only daughter of Afonso to have a kid is Urraca who luckily was married to Ferdinand II of Leon however before Afonso died their marriage was annulled but not before having a son the future Alfonso IX of Leon. With Afonso having no sons and with only one daughter with a son it is extremely easy to make it so that after Afonso dies in 1185 Ferdinand pushes for his son to be King of Portugal, at this point Urraca was a nun, and after Ferdinand dies in 1188 the Kingdom of Portugal-Leon will exist of course how long it last and if Alfonso has kids is up for debate but you wanted a how and here it is. For Castille I have no answer for that I would have to do a bit of quick reading for that.

Edit: Question does the result have to end up like the map?

How long do you estimate that such a union might last (if it isn't definitive)? You do imply a bit that it might not last for long. Either way, I think this is a more plausible alternative to the scenario in that last thread I started.

Well, then seems I get to obliterate history then going to post a continuation later because I'm busy but eventually I'll get to it I have gotten a bit to invested in this.

I'd say that any point of divergence after Castile separates itself from León (without coming back to it a few years later) is fair game. Also, what does Divergences of Darkness mean?

 

[TheLivingStorm]

Divergences of Darkness is a mod for Victoria 2 and 3 that while a massive alternate history mod includes a Spain that was formed from the union of Portugal and Castille-Leon instead of Aragon which owns northern Africa and southern Italy which can, with player intervention, eventually forms the Kingdom of Aragon-Italy also still busy will be for a while will get writing later.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

I agree with @Kurd Gossamer. A series of more incompetent Castilian kings in the Reconquista with a series of more lucky Portuguese kings would make sure that Castile would gain less territory and Portugal would gain more.

 

[Taunay]

Having Henry I of Castile avoid his unlikely death would keep Leon independent from Castile for a longer time.

 

[I_am_Unk]

Having Henry I of Castile avoid his unlikely death would keep Leon independent from Castile for a longer time.

You know, I'm starting to realize I might need a much more extensive knowledge on Iberian history and family trees...

 

[TheLivingStorm]

In Castile, Alfonso the VIII seeking allies against the building threat in the West takes a more active role in influencing his daughter Berengaria to keep her marriage with Conrad the son of Holy Roman Emperor Frederick I Barbarossa against the influence of Eleanor of Aquitaine thus leading to a Staufen-led Castile. With this marriage solidified for the time being France would be encircled by a Staufen block causing tensions between the French and the Imperial. Seeing the inevitable threat to his power, the king of France, most likely Philip II, would betroth his sister Agnes to Alfonso the IX. This would create a balance game in Iberia with a French and Imperial aligned kingdom leaving Navarre and Aragon to stay neutral for the time being.

Note by the time Alfonso the IX and Agnes get betrothed her second husband should already have died and the third marriage can be butterflied away for your question, the hypothetical marriage of Alfonso and Agnes of the kids OTL Alfonso had many kids with two sons and following standard inheritance law would lead to the kingdom being split up unless he somehow only has one son which considering monarchs at the time is probably no.