Can the Avro Arrow be saved?

[Vinization]

Like it says on the tin. Can the CF-105 Arrow, a jet interceptor designed and built by Avro Canada in the 1950s, be saved from being canceled during its test phase in 1959? What led to the project being scrapped in the first place, and, should it be a success, would Avro Canada continue to exist ITTL?

Lastly, could this change give the Diefenbaker government a chance to keep a slim majority in parliament instead of losing it altogether in the 1962 election like IOTL? How would Canadian politics change with the Progressive Conservatives (what a weird name for a party to have...) staying in power for a few more years?

 

[CV12Hornet]

The Arrow was cancelled for three reasons. First, it was the single most expensive military development project in Canadian history, and the country hit a recession late in development. Second, avionics development was a gong show, with the planned avionics fit changing three times. Third, the development of the ICBM

The most plausible means I’ve seen to save the Arrow was to get rid of problem #2, making it further along and harder to cancel once a decision had to be made.

 

[Vinization]

The most plausible means I’ve seen to save the Arrow was to get rid of problem #2, making it further along and hard to cancel once a decision had to be made.

Would it be reasonable to assume taking care of the avionics problem will also diminish the project's overall cost?

 

[CV12Hornet]

Would it be reasonable to assume taking care of the avionics problem will also diminish the project's overall cost?

Yes. The originally planned avionics suite was already in development for the F-106, the Air Force and Convair footing the development bill. Instead, the RCAF changed course to the indigenous Astra radar and the Sparrow II active-radar missile, a missile the Canadians had to fund further development of when the US Navy, the original customer, canned it.

 

[LoftonHenderson]

How would the completed Arrow have compared to other delta interceptor projects of the time? I know EE, Fairey, and Hawker were all working on their own, the Americans had the F-106... I think the Arrow's main advantage would be range, though not all buyers need that huge endurance give the size of Canada relative to others.

But maybe if Canada could have created some foreign interest in the Arrow it would have been more viable despite the cost/timeline overruns.

 

[CV12Hornet]

How would the completed Arrow have compared to other delta interceptor projects of the time? I know EE, Fairey, and Hawker were all working on their own, the Americans had the F-106... I think the Arrow's main advantage would be range, though not all buyers need that huge endurance give the size of Canada relative to others.

But maybe if Canada could have created some foreign interest in the Arrow it would have been more viable despite the cost/timeline overruns.

The Arrow didn't have very good endurance. Certainly a hell of a lot better than other early Mach 2 fighters, but 400nm combat radius is no great shakes. In fact, in terms of range it was in the same ballpark as the Phantom.

As far as other interceptors, it would've been comparable to the British projects, and sat midway between the F-106 and F-108.

Foreign sales are difficult because there aren't many customers out there that want or need such a big, expensive interceptor. RAF interest was predicated on F.155 delays; once that was canned in 1957 the Lightning was cheaper, faster to acquire, and adequate to British needs, and afterward they don't need to replace the Lightning until the 70s and once they do they have a bunch of Phantoms they can dedicate to defending the British isles. Nobody else was interested.

Maybe Iran or Japan would be interested in the late 60s instead of the Phantom, but that's about all the opportunities I can think of.

 

[Monk78]

Ironically, the best customer for the arrow would have been the USSR

 

[LoftonHenderson]

The Arrow didn't have very good endurance. Certainly a hell of a lot better than other early Mach 2 fighters, but 400nm combat radius is no great shakes. In fact, in terms of range it was in the same ballpark as the Phantom.

As far as other interceptors, it would've been comparable to the British projects, and sat midway between the F-106 and F-108.

Any idea what the ranges would have been for the FD.3 or Hawker P.1103 – I assume even less than the Arrow right?

 

[CV12Hornet]

Any idea what the ranges would have been for the FD.3 or Hawker P.1103 – I assume even less than the Arrow right?

They had to intercept targets at least 250 miles from the UK, so probably around the same.

 

[LoftonHenderson]

They had to intercept targets at least 250 miles from the UK, so probably around the same.

Interesting, so significantly less than the Lightning. Honestly 1957 White Paper does get a lot of well earned flak, but I think it was for the best all these super interceptor projects got canned. I don't really think these planes would have had all that much utility if they'd ever went into full production.

 

[CV12Hornet]

Interesting, so significantly less than the Lightning. Honestly 1957 White Paper does get a lot of well earned flak, but I think it was for the best all these super interceptor projects got canned. I don't really think these planes would have had all that much utility if they'd ever went into full production.

Except no, because the Canadian requirement was to intercept targets 200nm out, and the Arrow could go further than that.

You need more fuel reserves than just what it would take to minimally get the plane to the target range.

 

[LoftonHenderson]

Except no, because the Canadian requirement was to intercept targets 200nm out, and the Arrow could go further than that.

You need more fuel reserves than just what it would take to minimally get the plane to the target range.

So what would actual range be then? If Arrow's range was ~400nm for intercepting targets 200nm out, would the F.155 ranges have been 400-500nm for intercepting targets 250nm out?

 

[CV12Hornet]

So what would actual range be then? If Arrow's range was ~400nm for intercepting targets 200nm out, would the F.155 ranges have been 400-500nm for intercepting targets 250nm out?

I would assume so, yes.

 

[Vinization]

On the political front, how would the PCs getting a majority (however slim) in the 1962 election change Canadian politics from that point onward? Would Lester Pearson resign as leader of the Liberals after such a defeat, and if he does, who could replace him? Certainly not Trudeau since he wasn't an MP yet.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Like it says on the tin. Can the CF-105 Arrow, a jet interceptor designed and built by Avro Canada in the 1950s, be saved from being canceled during its test phase in 1959? What led to the project being scrapped in the first place, and, should it be a success, would Avro Canada continue to exist ITTL?

Lastly, could this change give the Diefenbaker government a chance to keep a slim majority in parliament instead of losing it altogether in the 1962 election like IOTL? How would Canadian politics change with the Progressive Conservatives (what a weird name for a party to have...) staying in power for a few more years?

The Avro Arrow was the right plane for Canada, the US, the USSR, and basically no one else. Naturally the US and USSR aren't going to buy Canadian, so this is a plane that is only ever going to be operated by Canada with no hope of export orders to recoup development and maintenance costs, and it was a very ambitious project that was basically a blackhole for Canada's military budget. So I'd say the problem lays right at its conception when Canada and Avro fixated on building a super interceptor that would only be useful to continent sized countries and only operable/affordable by the most advanced airforces.

Avro had originally been working on a smaller single engine interceptor, which likely would have been easier to develop and would have more potential buyers.

Perhaps the RCAF decides that rather than focusing on having massive super interceptors that can quickly sortie to the Arctic from bases far to the south they instead request interceptors that can use smaller or even dirt runways in the Territories, something like a Canadian MiG-21. Which would reduce the all-important time to intercept, while also producing a plane that would have no shortage of foreign customers.

Perhaps the most radical but promising option would be to switch around the RCAF's two 1950s procurement programs. iOTL they wanted a domestically designed interceptor and a licence produced "strike-reconnaissance aircraft". So instead Canadair licence produces the Voodoo (or something like that), and Avro gets tasked with filling the operational need filled iOTL by the CF-104. So our alt!Arrow starts as a high performance bomb truck, which could evolve into a multi-role/strike fighter which would be a very nice thing to have on offer going into the mid-60s.

 

[Incognitia]

Perhaps the RCAF decides that rather than focusing on having massive super interceptors that can quickly sortie to the Arctic from bases far to the south they instead request interceptors that can use smaller or even dirt runways in the Territories

Implausible - what pilot wants to live in the boonies when they could be flying a plane from a base near a city with attractive young women who might be impressed by a pilot?

 

[Gunnarnz]

The Avro Arrow was the right plane for Canada, the US, the USSR, and basically no one else. Naturally the US and USSR aren't going to buy Canadian, so this is a plane that is only every going to be operated by Canada with no hope of export orders to recoup development and maintenance costs, and it was a very ambitious project that was basically a blackhole for Canada's military budget. So I'd say the problem lays right at its conception when Canada and Avro fixated on building a super interceptor that would only be useful to continent sized countries and only operable/affordable by the most advanced airforces.

I agree with this point, although Australia might also fit into that category. If faced by a Red Indonesia that made better use of its Tu-16s, I think the Aussies might be remotely plausible purchasers. They're not going to want to fund or run an orphan fleet either, of course, so in anything resembling OTL it can't happen, but if another major power picks it up they might go for it. They were looking at the B-58 and RA-5C, after all.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I agree with this point, although Australia might also fit into that category. If faced by a Red Indonesia that made better use of its Tu-16s, I think the Aussies might be remotely plausible purchasers. They're not going to want to fund or run an orphan fleet either, of course, so in anything resembling OTL it can't happen, but if another major power picks it up they might go for it. They were looking at the B-58 and RA-5C, after all.

Yeah Australia arguably has the geography and capacity, but its strategic environment and its perception of its role in the Cold War would disincline it from purchasing such a narrowly specialized plane.

 

[lhagambia]

The best way to save the Avro Arrow is to make it part of Britain's F. 155T interceptor program. The Arrow is way better than any of those designs that never got off the drawing board. The Arrow actually flew. It would then be built for RAF and RCAF.

 

[LoftonHenderson]

The best way to save the Avro Arrow is to make it part of Britain's F. 155T interceptor program. The Arrow is way better than any of those designs that never got off the drawing board. The Arrow actually flew. It would then be built for RAF and RCAF.

Was it better though? And if so how much?

I know the FD.2 flew and was apparently quite impressive. Fairey said they could have some sort of FD.3 flying by 1960 at the latest IIRC

How would the two have compared?