Had the Soviet Union collapsed or been defeated by Germany during WW2, how would that have affected the Pacific War? Would that have benefited Japan or not? And if so, how and why? Thank you very much.
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Consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union for the Pacific War
- Thread starter Juan de Mariana
- Start date
Of course it would've benefitted Japan. It would've freed forces tied down along the soviet border for the Pacific war, and facilitated the movement of strategic material between Germany and Japan. In addition to direct benefits like German machinery and technology, Japan would've benefitted from a reich made stronger with more rubber and other vital commodities, tying down more allied strength in the ETO. (There would've been more successful trade as the axis would no longer depend on the risky blockade running expeditions.) And of course the fall of the USSR would've required more allied resources for the ETO, instead of Japan, as the allies no longer had the USSR to tie down German forces.
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I like this question, and I think some assumptions may need to be set first.
Assuming that the Nazis manage to take Moscow in December 1941, Stalin is captured or killed.
Assuming the evacuation of Moscow is completed as per OTL.
Assuming Stalin's successor decides that accepting an armistice, with territory ceded as far as 100km past Moscow, and a DMZ 100km past that, (still something like 1000km between this line and the Urals).
Assuming Russia sticks to its neutrality pact with the Japanese and moves, (at a guess), 75% of it's far east forces west to support the new western border.
This frees up potentially 2m troops, (assuming 1.5m remain on occupation and "anti-partisan"/pacification duties. As well as thousands of 1941 vintage tanks and aircraft on the German side, and maybe 600,000 Japanese soldiers from the Kwantung Army, maybe 1000 out of 1800 planes and a few thousand tons of
In a country the size of China, they will get swallowed up easily. So for the Japanese, it's business as per OTL by and large.
2m spare soldiers is a blessing and a curse for Germany.
2m reserves that could go to Africa, the Balkans, the South of France, Sweden, anywhere. Even Britain*...
However, part of the problems that Hitler faced in 1938/39 is that, as I understand it, the economic policies of Nazi Germany were unsustainable without conquest and state looting to keep it artificially buoyed.
So bringing 2m people back from the Army means finding work for 2m people...
So they stay in the Army and Hitler needs to find somewhere else to invade.
Big boost to the Africa Corps and drive on the middle east? Take territory up to Turkey's southern border?
That would keep those additional 2m soldiers busy and turn the Mediterranean into a Fascist lake if they succeed.
However it also keeps those 2m soldiers busy and tied up in the same way the Japanese army were tied up in China, being just successful enough to advance, but not successful enough to be able to securely disengage.
End version?
More or less the same as OTL Germany and Germany defeated by the end of 1945
At best it would benefit the Japanese in a minor way, with a few divisions from the Kwantung Army freed for service in China or elsewhere. At worst, occupation of the Soviet Far East drastically stretches Japan's very limited resources and spreads them even thinner across the Chinese and Pacific theaters. The only really major difference would be how the situation is resolved as Japan is defeated - there no longer is a strong Red Army to launch the 'Manchurian Strategic Offensive' and later hand off the territory to the People's Liberation Army. In that case, I imagine a total Allied occupation of Japan and Korea, a reconstituted Chinese Republic fighting a protracted guerrilla war against the Chinese communists, an interesting situation in the Soviet Far East vis a vis borders and agreements, and probably some wrangling over the status of Mongolia. Those last two kind of depend on how stable the rump USSR is.
Anglo/American - Nazi War by @CalBear explores the scenario. The POD is vaguely set in early 1941 so Hitler realizes North Africa is doomed and does not support Mussolini. This frees up the OTL troops and forces used in North Africa to focus on the Soviet Union instead. The Soviets lose Stalingrad, Stalin goes crazy and executes his best generals for their failure, and the USSR never recovers. While this happens, the Allies launch a paratrooper invasion of the German-occupied Channel Islands to relieve the beleaguered Soviets but it does not divert the Germans. The Channel Islands are liberated but the Germans still defeat the USSR, which also includes capturing most of their manufacturing areas and Lend Lease equipment. A ceasefire between the Western Allies and Germany is signed in 1947 which holds until 1954, starting the next phase of the Second Global War.
In this scenario, with the ceasefire in effect, the Allies get to focus on the Pacific War more. It still proceeds the same way as OTL up until the liberation of the Philippines where in the U.S. lands in Lingayen Gulf instead of Leyte in OTL. From there, the U.S. liberates the Philippines starting from Luzon all the way down to Mindanao. Japan is then blockaded (rather than the use of nuclear bombs) to surrender until 1946.
As per the effects in mainland Asia, probably the same as OTL. The Japanese would still do their atrocities and still be found in a unwinnable war in Burma, the Philippines, Malaya, and China. Especially the nightmaring conditions of China.
In this scenario, with the ceasefire in effect, the Allies get to focus on the Pacific War more. It still proceeds the same way as OTL up until the liberation of the Philippines where in the U.S. lands in Lingayen Gulf instead of Leyte in OTL. From there, the U.S. liberates the Philippines starting from Luzon all the way down to Mindanao. Japan is then blockaded (rather than the use of nuclear bombs) to surrender until 1946.
As per the effects in mainland Asia, probably the same as OTL. The Japanese would still do their atrocities and still be found in a unwinnable war in Burma, the Philippines, Malaya, and China. Especially the nightmaring conditions of China.
There isn't a single answer to this question.
If the collapse is between August-October of 1941 the result if very different than if it after the Japanese have attacked the UK & U.S. Same goes for later collapses and on how badly the Soviets actually crumple.
That's what happened in AANW. Although Berlin wasn't nuked if I remember, it was hit with an anthrax weapon from the British in retaliation for the St. Patrick's Day bombings in 1954.
If the collapse of the USSR is between August-October 1941, does it mean the Japanese will still attack Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, Guam, Wake Island, DEI, and Hong Kong? Or a similar thing will play out but not necessarily on December 7/8, 1941?
Then of course there is the debate of whether or not it was the nukes or the Soviet invasion of Manchuria that forced Japan to surrender in otl.....
But we've had a thousand different threads with that debate.
Ichi Go will be a lot more successful in this atl. Problem is a Soviet defeat does nothing to help the Japanese navy.
But we've had a thousand different threads with that debate.
Ichi Go will be a lot more successful in this atl. Problem is a Soviet defeat does nothing to help the Japanese navy.
The Soviet defeat will also do nothing to Japan's inevitable defeat at the hands of the United States. It might delay the war to 1946-1947 but the outcome will still be that Japan will capitulate at some point. Either through blockade, firebombings, or even atomic weapons.
I was thinking of the collapse being after the attack to Pearl Harbor.
I honestly think this would be worse for Japan. Without the Soviets to pay the butchers bill to topple the third reich, there is no way the WAllies attempt the DDay invasion and therefore divert the bulk of their forces against Japan while strategic bombing Germany and blockading them as well.
Japan still loses, one way or another. The only likely change is that Japan retains Chishima (Kuril) and Southern Karafuto (Sakhalin) since I assume a Soviet collapse means no Soviet invasion in 1945, and I don't really see any incentive for the USA to hand over those territories to a rump Soviet state, much less German-occupied/controlled Russia. Especially if Truman is already the President, since unlike FDR, he had no blind spot with regard to Stalin. Unless the rump Soviets already have troops on those territories making it fait accompli, Japan almost certainly keeps them.
No Soviet boogeyman also likely means the Japanese economic miracle either gets delayed or is butterflied away entirely, with a longer, slower, and more painful reconstruction of Japan. That said, I don't think the USA would let Japan stay in ruins for too long, depending on how long the Chinese Civil War goes. Regardless of whether or not the KMT or the CCP comes out on top, China will inevitably become an even greater geopolitical rival to the USA than Japan ever was. IIRC, there was even a growing perception in the USA that the KMT was a fundamentally fascist regime from 1944 onward, after Jiang's heavy-handed refusal to integrate Chinese forces with the unified Allied command structure in the Pacific.
Whether it's the Communists or the KMT, Japan will inevitably have to rebuild and rearm, so the Americans don't get stuck having to defend the islands on their own if it comes to that.
No Soviet boogeyman also likely means the Japanese economic miracle either gets delayed or is butterflied away entirely, with a longer, slower, and more painful reconstruction of Japan. That said, I don't think the USA would let Japan stay in ruins for too long, depending on how long the Chinese Civil War goes. Regardless of whether or not the KMT or the CCP comes out on top, China will inevitably become an even greater geopolitical rival to the USA than Japan ever was. IIRC, there was even a growing perception in the USA that the KMT was a fundamentally fascist regime from 1944 onward, after Jiang's heavy-handed refusal to integrate Chinese forces with the unified Allied command structure in the Pacific.
Whether it's the Communists or the KMT, Japan will inevitably have to rebuild and rearm, so the Americans don't get stuck having to defend the islands on their own if it comes to that.
With a Soviet collapse being after Pearl Harbor, but before the beginning of 1943, Japan can gain some short-term benefits.
*If* the Soviets via defeat are brought into an armistice and forced to yield track and cargo space, Soviet territory can be used for strategic trade between the European Axis and Japan by rail and overflight.
But aside from that, without the need to guard Manchukuo, more troops can be sent out to Pacific and southwest Pacific and Burma front garrisons to be more threatening to India. What everyone says about the Nazis being less tied down is also true. It is true the Japanese *Navy* does not benefit. Probably most beneficial for the Japanese, and remaining most flexible for the longest, they no longer need to keep air groups tied down in Manchuria, Korea, northern Japan to deal with any potential Soviet air threat, and can shuttle those air groups among all their island possessions through the end of the war, even *after* encroaching submarine blockade starts to restrict their sea mobility.
After a certain point in 1944, and accelerating into 1944, the Japanese ability to disengage troops from northeast Asia ceases to matter, as shipping losses due to the submarine campaign and overall fleet losses (battles of Philippine Sea, Leyte Gulf) mean island garrisons of any size cannot be resupplied, and it is increasingly difficult to move troops across water. At most, Japan could use spare troops to further wreck China, or harass northeast India.
define the parameters of "collapsed" & "defeat". when does either/both occur? the U.S.A. particularly, & UK in general, benefit by not having the bleed off of materiel for lend-lease to ussr.
Well, although the European endgame was completely different, it was a regime change in Germany and a negotiated peace there, your Pacific Nightmare, if I am remembering the name of your interesting scenario correctly, was starting to show some of what flexibility the Japanese could have once they knew they no longer had to fear any Soviet attack at all. Unlike in that scenario, here the rump Soviets would not be leaking military resources to Japan to mess with the west and bog it down in revenge for western-German deals it disapproved of in Europe, but it just might trade some undestroyed military surplus material to Japan for rice, soybeans, or rubber or tungsten it may need for population sustenance or certain industrial niches. Of course, that also needs to be weighed against any trade or credits or aid the USSR might be getting or thinks it could get from the USA and British Empire, and the risk of alienating them and losing it if any Soviet gear is seen in Japanese possession.
Very possibly.
A lot would depend on a whole notebook full of specifics (what does the actual treaty between the Reich and Soviets lay out as conditions is, IMO, far and away the largest of them). You could either see the Japanese's position considerably improved OR vastly worsened, depending on the status/operational decisions made by the WAllies (U.S decides to turn Guadalcanal into Tinian, the teen years and start blowing pougies out of Rabaul with 300 plane B-17G strikes and does the same with NE Australia against New Guinea and parts of the DEI and the Japanese are going to have even MORE fuel issues (depending the Reich/Soviet Treaty*).
Same goes for WAllied ground forces. It took several years for the troops in the CBI to wipe out the Japanese in some of the worst terrain the world has to offer combat troops, but what if 1/3 of the troops and materials that were collected for Overlord went to the CBI? WAllies retake Burma by late 1943 they can realistically create a serious supply route into China (Laos and Thailand will be unthrilled, but at least American cigarettes are better than the Japanese variety). 6th U.S. Army (as an example) with a solid logistic supply chain against the IJA in China? Know where my betting money is headed.
Even of the WAllies simply play the same hand the did IOTL the Japanese are still toast, only real difference in that the Kwantung Army is now even more overstretched, as is the South China Area Army. By summer of 1944 American industry hits full gallop and that is all she wrote for the Japanese.
*The oil fields of Siberia, where the Russians today are pumping very nicely, were flat beyond 1940's drilling tech (even in the 1950s those sorts of deposits were mainly only accessible by a small handful of drilling companies, most of them American)
Toaster is gonna toast, it is only a question of when and how and what the resource allocations to Nazi containment vs. Japan rollback are.
. Judging it impossible to succeed, *you* as the Allies may not be interested in cross-channel, cross-North Sea, cross-Mediterranean, cross-Caucasian, cross-Caspian, cross-Turkestani invasions, and may want to concentrate your greatest possible mass of mobilized force for fire and maneuver to make the quickest possible work of Japan.
But you possess important assets, the factory floors, workforce, recruiting pool, shipyards, and ports of Britain, Gibraltar, Malta, the Suez Canal, Middle East oil fields, in Iran and northern Iraq, that are in range of a large, formidable, and increasingly after Soviet defeat, underemployed Nazi and Axis Air Force, ground maneuver forces, and eventual rocket v-1then v-2 force. This Nazi force may be interested in *you* and your proximate assets that pose a threat to them.
As I noted earlier, it very much depends on the conditions of the Soviet surrender. That one factor determines much of what the Reich and its Italian Allies can hope to achieve.
What would be needed to hold the Reich at bay (assuming some sort of armistice is not concluded with the WAllies) depends almost entirely on the Reich/Soviet peace conditions
No way Germany is defeated by 1945, without the USSR there is no way any D-day invasion succeeds and the British are going to have a lot of problems even beating Rommel.