Could the Entente + USA have beaten the Three Emperors' League?
- Thread starter Iggies
- Start date
The US will need a few years to build an army. France will have to survive for a few years against Germany’s full might, Italy will have to survive a few years against Austria’s full might, the Ottoman Empire will have to hold off Russia, Japan can only distract a limited number of Russian troops, Britain won’t have a huge army for a couple years either.
League of Emperors wins decisively if they start with OTL militaries. America can do nothing and Britain only a moderate amount in critical land wars for the first two years.
League of Emperors wins decisively if they start with OTL militaries. America can do nothing and Britain only a moderate amount in critical land wars for the first two years.
When does the USA enter the war ITTL? There's a good chance that the Dreikaiserbund would have won by 1917 if the USA still remains neutral until then.
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I agree. It could have been a very short war as France may have lost the Battle of the Marne with Germany being able to deploy its full might to the west in 1914.
I agree. But would they have had the same armed forces? I can only see that happening if Russia leaves the Entente and joins the Triple Alliance (making it a Quadruple Alliance) in the 1910s.
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Does WWI as we know it happen in the first place? If A-H and Russia are allies will Russia support Serbia? That stops the chain reaction that started the OTL WWI in it's tracks.
What is exact POD? How this alt-WW1 would begin (It can't begin same way as in OTL since Russia is ally of A-H and German)? When the war would begin? What is casus belli? How history go before that war? How all these three nations would develope prior the war? When and how USA would join?
You should give more information before it can be answered.
POD in the late 1800s I suppose (no Franco - Russian agreements, worse Anglo-Russian relations, either Kaiser Willy dies or gets some sense knocked into his head, and Germany is much friendlier to Russia) to set up the proper alliances. Perhaps an Anglo-Russian incident in Central Asia or a Russo-Japanese incident in East Asia could trigger a similar chain of interlocking guarantees as OTL Sarajevo 1914. To have the USA involved from the start, maybe much worse German-American relations going in? Colonial clashes?
I'd have two more questions then, how strong are the US armed forces at the outbreak of this notional war? Not exact numbers or anything like that, but more like the following list kind of thing:
Top Armies, from largest to smallest:
Russia, 1
Germany, 2
France, 3
Britain, 4
and so on...
Austro-Hungary,
Italy
Turkey/Ottoman Empire
Japan
USA
Where each army would have a number, from one to nine, for overall size.
For instance, historically the US army in going to be on the bottom, probably in both respects, and that would look like this
USA, 9-9
A similar system could be used for naval strength I suppose.
In general, the whole Russian-Ottoman situation still happens, but the Russians having to worry about a Japanese front is more than countered by NOT having German and AH fronts.
Italy and France, augmented by the UK and (eventually) the US can stand against G & AH, but where does the balance of the Russian situation stand?
Italy and France, augmented by the UK and (eventually) the US can stand against G & AH, but where does the balance of the Russian situation stand?
I had to rely on Wikipedia for the dates and recently I was told in a thread on Secret Projects to not believe a word I read on Wikipedia. However, in the absence of anything better here goes. The League of the Three Emperors came to an end in 1887 IOTL and then there was the Reinsurance Treaty between Germany & Russia between 1887 & 1890. The latter wasn't renewed by Kaiser Wilhelm II which led to Russia forming the Dual Entente with France in the 1890s. So I suggest the POD be 1887 with the League of the Three Emperors not being dissolved in 1887 and instead continuing until 1914 or the Kaiser renewing the Reinsurance Treaty.
One of the consequences is likely to be is that the Three Emperors spend less money on their armies between 1887 and 1914 which means they could spend the money saved on something else like developing their economies, infrastructure or their navies. It's rather likely that the Kaiser would spend most of the money he saved on his navy. From 1890-ish to 1905-ish IOTL the British were maintaining a Royal Navy strong enough to fight France & Russia (because they had the World's second & third largest navies) and from then until 1914 a Royal Navy that was strong enough to fight Germany. ITTL the British will have to maintain a Royal Navy strong enough to fight the larger German & Russian navies, which it had the money to do, but at the cost of a weaker British Army so no BEF ITTL. Meanwhile, France may feel the need for a stronger army which may be at the cost of a weaker navy.
There was a Japan joins the Central Powers thread recently in which Japan changed sides in 1914 which made it much easier to speculate on what might have happened. Having Russia change sides in 1914 ITTL would make it a lot easier to speculate upon what might have happened.
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If the Three Emperors did fight World War I as allies then it's rather likely that Italy would have remained neutral or sided with the Three Emperors because they joined the side that they thought would win IOTL and they'd do the same ITTL.
thaddeus
Donor
casting around for a POD, could there be Russian support for a SerBulgaria (to encompass Montenegro also) that puts Russians on the Med and the Adriatic? although I would think Austria-Hungary would hate that, maybe they are bought off or pressured by both Germany and Russia to go along?
that could put Italy and the Ottomans on the same side? an invasion of Greece by SerBulgaria starts WWI? "the Third Balkan War?"
I don't know because I don't know enough about Balkan politics.
The Russians are going to be in big trouble here. They might have had the largest army in WW1 IOTL, but they critically relied on Allied support to arm them. The Americans alone provided several million rifles and other firearms to the Russians, many Russian warships were built in the USA, and they were also gifted plenty of weapons by the UK and even Japan. ITTL all that is gone, and all they have to rely on are the Germans who aren't the industrial powerhouse the USA is and have their own massive needs.
This war would get ugly fast and end in a treaty.
In this war France will fall and in the first year. With Germany going 100% after France and with France not getting any more support then OTL as the US Army is yo little and yo far away to matter. So France will fall.
Italy will be forced out of the war soon as AH does not have to fight on 2 fronts and Germany will soon finish France so will be able yo press Italy much more then it did.
Add in the Russia will be able yo send a few troops here or there to help as odds are it does not need all of it’s troops.
Meanwhile at sea… the G/R/AH are screwed 6 ways from Sunday. The combined Royal Navy and US Navy is bad enough. Toss in the French fleet that flees to GB the Italian fleet (what there is) and the Japanese and it is hopeless. Heck just freeing up the entire US fleet be Japan being able/willing yo go after any German ships in the Pacific would add even more US ships to the equation.
But ultimately France falls, Italy gives up and because nether side can do much to the other the US/GB/J and G/R/AH sign a treaty to end the war and basically leave each other alone. As neither side can force the other yo accept a harsh treaty.
In this war France will fall and in the first year. With Germany going 100% after France and with France not getting any more support then OTL as the US Army is yo little and yo far away to matter. So France will fall.
Italy will be forced out of the war soon as AH does not have to fight on 2 fronts and Germany will soon finish France so will be able yo press Italy much more then it did.
Add in the Russia will be able yo send a few troops here or there to help as odds are it does not need all of it’s troops.
Meanwhile at sea… the G/R/AH are screwed 6 ways from Sunday. The combined Royal Navy and US Navy is bad enough. Toss in the French fleet that flees to GB the Italian fleet (what there is) and the Japanese and it is hopeless. Heck just freeing up the entire US fleet be Japan being able/willing yo go after any German ships in the Pacific would add even more US ships to the equation.
But ultimately France falls, Italy gives up and because nether side can do much to the other the US/GB/J and G/R/AH sign a treaty to end the war and basically leave each other alone. As neither side can force the other yo accept a harsh treaty.
However, most of the largest army in WW1 (Russia's) was fighting the A-H and German armies IOTL, which it won't be ITTL because those countries are its allies and ipso facto Russia won't need the largest army in WW1 ITTL. Furthermore, not having to fight Russia means A-H and Germany need smaller armies ITTL so they can sell some of the arms they don't need ITTL to Russia.
I've not heard of the many Russian warships that were built in the USA before. Please tell me more.
I'm sorry, but I must challenge your conclusion. Your idea strongly implies that this atl Russia knows ahead of time who they are going to be fighting, and that this foreknowledge is sufficiently ahead of time to affect their pre war forces. The other side of the coin is two fold.
Unlike OTL:
1) Russia will be fighting the Japanese.
2) Ottomans are now part of the Entente, which means a repeat of the 1850's Crimean War part 2 is in the cards, is it not.
Making assumptions (on incomplete facts, like missing numbers 1&2 above), and then proclaiming that the Russians don't need as big an army are not carved in stone, and in my opinion, are a very shaky foundation upon which to build.
This is a further "building a house of cards" type of thing. Russia still needs it's army, so Germany and A-H still need their armies (and really, even if the Russians did downsize their own army, why would the CP just up and throw away their breathing room)?
And why, pray tell, would the Russians need to buy them, if they were indeed downsizing their army in the first place. Makes no sense.
So, no offense, but I just don't buy it.