Denikin vs. Poland: Who wins?

Denikin vs. Poland

  • Polish victory; Denikin overthrown (possibly with assistance from other White forces)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Polish victory; All of Ukraine and Belarus conquered

    Votes: 1 5.0%
  • Stalemate

    Votes: 3 15.0%
  • Initial Russian victory followed by a Polish counteroffensive (similar to OTL)

    Votes: 10 50.0%
  • Victory of the Whites of Southern Russia; Poland cedes all of Ukraine and Belarus

    Votes: 4 20.0%
  • Victory of the Whites of Southern Russia; foreign intervention secures independence for Poland

    Votes: 1 5.0%
  • Victory of the Whites of Southern Russia; Poland is annexed or becomes a satellite state

    Votes: 1 5.0%

  • Total voters
    20
In 1920, the Polish-Soviet War broke out between the newly-independent nation of Poland and the Bolsheviks. It began with a Polish offensive in the Ukraine, supported by the deposed Ukrainian nationalist government, then a Soviet offensive which almost brought about the destruction of Poland, followed by a Polish counteroffensive which retook the eastern thirds of Belarus and Ukraine.

Previously, in late 1919, the Soviets had faced against the forces of Anton Denikin, a White Russian commander who unsuccessfully tried to take Moscow. His defeat was largely due to the operations of Makhno's anarchists, who had defeated Denikin's rearguard and disrupted his supplies. If Makhno was instead defeated in late September and retreated to the area west of Kiev, Denikin probably would have captured Moscow in December 1919, probably leading to the collapse of Soviet Russia.

In this case, the mutual antagonism between Poland and Russia would probably remain, only with a different entity representing "Russia". Denikin was himself half Polish, but he was also the most fiercely nationalistic White commander.

Supposing a Polish-Russian War broke out, who would win? Denikin's troops were considerably more capable than the Red Army (as evidenced by their ability to seriously challenge them while outnumbered roughly 7:12), however, sentiment in Ukraine and Belarus would probably be in favour of the Poles, as their nationalist governments were allied with Poland, and Denikin refused to accept even limited autonomy for them. In addition, the other White commanders would pose a significant threat to Denikin, something the Soviets did not have to deal with.
 
Denikin actually was ready to recognize Polish independence. This was a considerable concession from a "Russia one and indivisible" White--but the problem was that he was willing to recognize Poland only up to the eastern border of Congress Poland. (And he hedged even this by saying that final and official recognition would have to wait for a future Constituent Assembly.) https://books.google.com/books?id=5mSkxsos488C&pg=PA257
 
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