Eastern Europe in a Central Powers Victory

[No_Names_Left321]

What would the East look like in a late Central Power Victory? Yes I know this has been done already a few times but I couldn’t find anything using the Worlda format. Central Powers win by taking Paris in the Spring offensive in 1918, bringing the allies to the negotiating table. Treaty of Brest Litovsk and Treaty of Batum are still signed as in OTL.

Ukrainian People's Republic May-November 1918

What I have so far

Any input is greatly appreciated.

 

[Augenis]

I doubt the longevity of the Cossack republics, they would have rejoined Russia (or get conquered by it, if it is Red) or joined up with Ukraine soon after their establishment.

Lithuania is too large and Poland is too small.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

I doubt the longevity of the Cossack republics, they would have rejoined Russia (or get conquered by it, if it is Red) or joined up with Ukraine soon after their establishment.

Lithuania is too large and Poland is too small.

Germany would back a larger Lithuania, and would have been very reluctant to allow a big Poland.

 

[Augenis]

Germany would back a larger Lithuania, and would have been very reluctant to allow a big Poland.

Germany would have most likely begun to assimilate Lithuania, so having a large Lithuania wouldn't be in their best interest there.

Yeah, I know that they don't want a big Poland, but this Poland is just Warsaw and surroundings, which is comical. The Polish Border Strip was not that big.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Germany would have most likely begun to assimilate Lithuania, so having a large Lithuania wouldn't be in their best interest there.

Yeah, I know that they don't want a big Poland, but this Poland is just Warsaw and surroundings, which is comical. The Polish Border Strip was not that big.

Lithuania sounds like a nice nation building project for the Germans. Not many Gernmans there really. What they're more interesting in integrating would be Latvia and Estonia, where they'd likely hand over rule to the German speaking elite at first.

 

[DrakonFin]

Any input is greatly appreciated.

Finland with OTL borders in really minimum Finland ITTL. With German support it would be realistic to get more land for the Finnish state in Karelia (at the very least the parishes of Repola and Porajärvi) in between the OTL border and the Murmansk railway.

 

[No_Names_Left321]

Germany would have most likely begun to assimilate Lithuania, so having a large Lithuania wouldn't be in their best interest there.

Yeah, I know that they don't want a big Poland, but this Poland is just Warsaw and surroundings, which is comical. The Polish Border Strip was not that big.

The Germans did make proposals to incorporate Lithuania into the Empire, particularly Prussia. The Lithuanians rejected these and formed a constitutional monarchy and voted to give the throne to Wilhelm Karl, Duke of Urach.

Thanks for the input. Let’s discuss how Poland and Lithuania will look exactly, based on the maps above.

Something I forgot to mention, after winning the war against the Entente, the Germans help the whites in the civil war with troops and crush the bolsheviks. This would affect what lands would fall under German control, such as newly formed Cossacks states.
Augenis already said they may join Russia or Ukraine though.

 

[Ariosto]

Any input is greatly appreciated.

Galicia-Lodomeria was actually going to be ceded to the Polish State, but that was when it was still meant to be a Austrian puppet rather than a German one; then again they may still be glad to be rid of it as it would mean fewer minorities for them to worry about directly, giving the Poles some semblance of autonomy whilst having them deal with the issue of the Ukrainians in East Galicia.

Serbia was also meant to be set up as a "vassal state" as it were, but I forget the exact form it was meant to take or its boundaries.

When I have the time I'll try and dig it all up and remind myself what else there was, though it often amounted to the Germans screwing over their Allies one way or another.​

 

[Augenis]

View attachment 347497

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The Germans did make proposals to incorporate Lithuania into the Empire, particularly Prussia. The Lithuanians rejected these and formed a constitutional monarchy and voted to give the throne to Wilhelm Karl, Duke of Urach.

Thanks for the input. Let’s discuss how Poland and Lithuania will look exactly, based on the maps above.

Something I forgot to mention, after winning the war against the Entente, the Germans help the whites in the civil war with troops and crush the bolsheviks. This would affect what lands would fall under German control, such as newly formed Cossacks states.
Augenis already said they may join Russia or Ukraine though.

Those maps were only plans, which would have most likely not been realized for two factors.

One is that the territories up to Brest which are proposed here as part of Lithuania had basically no Lithuanians.

The second - and here is the big part - a Kingdom of Lithuania would simply not arise in a CP victory scenario. Why? Germany did not agree to that plan. Yes, Germany. When the idea of inviting a Catholic German Duke of Urach to be crowned as King of Lithuania came up, the Council of Lithuania (the elected representative body of the Lithuanian nation at the time) made their conditions for the Duke - including that he must live in Lithuania, learn Lithuanian and rule as an independent king. As it should be obvious, Germany did not agree to such demands when they were proposed, as they were directly opposite to their goals in the Baltics. In fact, the Ober-Ost government demanded that the Council of Lithuania declare the February 16th act invalid and revert to the original December 1917 act of independence, which declared Lithuania as a republic with "eternal ties to Germany".

It was only when the 1918 Spring Offensive failed that the Germans, desperate for allies in the East, agreed to the Urach plan - however, since we are presuming that the 1918 Spring Offensive succeeds, the Urach plan is never accepted and Lithuania is forced to revert to a puppet republic.

So, contrary to the eternal "Mindaugas II Lithuania" cliche, a German victory in WW1 would likely see a puppet Republic of Lithuania. If not an outright annexation for a land route to the UBD.

 

[Augenis]

Hell, the December 11th Act of Restoration of the Statehood of Lithuania, which is what would almost certainly be applied to Lithuania in a Central Powers victory world, sounds a bit like annexation:

Šiai valstybei tvarkyti ir jos interesams ginti taikos derybose Krašto Taryba prašo Vokietijos
imperijos apsaugos ir pagalbos. Atsižvelgdama į Lietuvos gyvybinius interesus, reikalaujančius skubiai
užmegzti nuolatinius ir artimus ryšius su Vokietijos imperija, Krašto Taryba pasisako už amžiną, tvirtą
Lietuvos valstybės sąjungą su Vokietijos imperija, kuri visų pirma bus įgyvendinama per karinę,
susisiekimo, muitų ir pinigų sąjungą.
Vilnius, 1917 gruodžio 11 d.

To organize this nation and to defend it's interests in peace negotiations, the Council requests assistance and support from the German Empire.

Knowing the prime interests of Lithuania, which demand to immediately open constant and close ties with the German Empire, the Council supports eternal, strong ties with the German Empire, which will be first initiated through a military, transport, customs and monetary union.

Vilnius, December 11th, 1917

 

[AvatarOfKhaine]

Hell, the December 11th Act of Restoration of the Statehood of Lithuania, which is what would almost certainly be applied to Lithuania in a Central Powers victory world, sounds a bit like annexation:

Is it possible for the Germans to crown Mindaugas II von Urach as King as kingdom within the empire? For them to essentially force him upon the Lithuanians and hope that it can be integrated eventually to keep the unrest down low eventually?

Maybe a Grand Duchy or something to make a pretence of fairness while going full integrationist?

 

[Augenis]

Is it possible for the Germans to crown Mindaugas II von Urach as King as kingdom within the empire? For them to essentially force him upon the Lithuanians and hope that it can be integrated eventually to keep the unrest down low eventually?

Maybe a Grand Duchy or something to make a pretence of fairness while going full integrationist?

It is possible, yes. Though whether it is Urach or another Catholic German noble who is leading Lithuania is up to the German government.

 

[AvatarOfKhaine]

It is possible, yes. Though whether it is Urach or another Catholic German noble who is leading Lithuania is up to the German government.

Surely they might pretend to throw a bone and pick the Urachs, I'm fairly sure the Baron started learning the language almost immediately and that counts for efficiency if nothing else.

It also helps that in such a scenario he owes his royal crown to the Germans and thus would remain loyal.

 

[Ariosto]

<SNIP>

As Khaine suggested I think it ultimately would have been to Germany's benefit for it to let Mindaugas to take the crown, but on the basis of being a direct vassal within the Empire in much the same way the United Baltic Duchy was set to be. If that is the case then it shouldn't be much of a problem with the former Grodno Governorate being incorporated into the Lithuanian Duchy, and it'd fit with Berlin's plans to settle the area over time anyhow. The addition of other minorities within the Duchy could also serve to divide the local populace in a way that benefits German governance, in much the same way Ukrainians were to add a substantial minority concern to the Polish State. ​

 

[Ariosto]

Something I forgot to mention, after winning the war against the Entente, the Germans help the whites in the civil war with troops and crush the bolsheviks. This would affect what lands would fall under German control, such as newly formed Cossacks states.

The Germans had no interest in actually intervening in the Russian Civil War, and actually to some extent preferred the Bolsheviks as they expected such a State to quickly collapse upon itself and to leave Germany without a major competitor in the East. More likely you would have the Germans equipping and training proxies such the Ukrainians, Cossacks or Georgians which they to some extent did historically, and there may be some aid going in the direction of the White Russians but not much; the most important concession that the Germans probably would grant would be the right for the White Russians to establish operating bases within their client States, from which they could strike into Soviet Russia without being hassled by Bolshevik partisans interdicting their supply lines and be safe from Soviet pursuit.

That would not be enough to actually result in a victory for the Whites, least I doubt it would, but it probably would mean constant low-level partisan warfare for decades along the new Russian border, with a Japanese puppet State in the Russian Far East likely being maintained, maybe with Central Asia falling into disorder as well.​

 

[Augenis]

The Germans had no interest in actually intervening in the Russian Civil War, and actually to some extent preferred the Bolsheviks as they expected such a State to quickly collapse upon itself and to leave Germany without a major competitor in the East. More likely you would have the Germans equipping and training proxies such the Ukrainians, Cossacks or Georgians which they to some extent did historically, and there may be some aid going in the direction of the White Russians but not much; the most important concession that the Germans probably would grant would be the right for the White Russians to establish operating bases within their client States, from which they could strike into Soviet Russia without being hassled by Bolshevik partisans interdicting their supply lines and be safe from Soviet pursuit.

That would not be enough to actually result in a victory for the Whites, least I doubt it would, but it probably would mean constant low-level partisan warfare for decades along the new Russian border, with a Japanese puppet State in the Russian Far East likely being maintained, maybe with Central Asia falling into disorder as well.​

Yeah, I agree. The idea that a CP victory = no Soviet Russia, much like most other CP victory cliches, was started by Kaiserreich for HoI2 - and it wasn't really thought over much there, as Kaiserreich was born from a White Russia mod (All the Russias) and thus White Russia was a given from the beginning.

 

[No_Names_Left321]

Yeah, I agree. The idea that a CP victory = no Soviet Russia, much like most other CP victory cliches, was started by Kaiserreich for HoI2 - and it wasn't really thought over much there, as Kaiserreich was born from a White Russia mod (All the Russias) and thus White Russia was a given from the beginning.

Correct me if I’m wrong (I probably am) but didn’t Ludendorff want to destroy the Reds? Didn’t he say something about marching troops on Moscow after the war in the West was won?

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Correct me if I’m wrong (I probably am) but didn’t Ludendorff want to destroy the Reds? Didn’t he say something about marching troops on Moscow after the war in the West was won?

And then the soldier's mutiny who after surviving 4 years of bloodshed in both East and West sure as hell don't want to fight another goddamned campaign in the East

 

[CaliGuy]

Correct me if I’m wrong (I probably am) but didn’t Ludendorff want to destroy the Reds? Didn’t he say something about marching troops on Moscow after the war in the West was won?

Yes, he did--in fact, he even made such a suggestion in August 1918 in our TL--as in, without a German victory in the West.

Those maps were only plans, which would have most likely not been realized for two factors.

One is that the territories up to Brest which are proposed here as part of Lithuania had basically no Lithuanians.

The second - and here is the big part - a Kingdom of Lithuania would simply not arise in a CP victory scenario. Why? Germany did not agree to that plan. Yes, Germany. When the idea of inviting a Catholic German Duke of Urach to be crowned as King of Lithuania came up, the Council of Lithuania (the elected representative body of the Lithuanian nation at the time) made their conditions for the Duke - including that he must live in Lithuania, learn Lithuanian and rule as an independent king. As it should be obvious, Germany did not agree to such demands when they were proposed, as they were directly opposite to their goals in the Baltics. In fact, the Ober-Ost government demanded that the Council of Lithuania declare the February 16th act invalid and revert to the original December 1917 act of independence, which declared Lithuania as a republic with "eternal ties to Germany".

It was only when the 1918 Spring Offensive failed that the Germans, desperate for allies in the East, agreed to the Urach plan - however, since we are presuming that the 1918 Spring Offensive succeeds, the Urach plan is never accepted and Lithuania is forced to revert to a puppet republic.

So, contrary to the eternal "Mindaugas II Lithuania" cliche, a German victory in WW1 would likely see a puppet Republic of Lithuania. If not an outright annexation for a land route to the UBD.

So, what do you think that Lithuania's borders would have been right before it would have gotten annexed to the German Reich?

Also, for the record, due to the likely rise of anti-German sentiments in Russia in this TL, a large part--indeed, perhaps most--of Russia's ethnic German population is probably going to move out of Russia. Indeed, maybe Germany could try blocking their entrance into Germany proper and instead tell them to settle in the Baltic states (which Germany hopes to Germanize).

 

[No_Names_Left321]

Loving the feedback. I edited Poland and Lithuania’s borders. I haven’t made Lithuania in Personal Union with Germany yet, since I want to focus on borders first. I have found very little information regarding Belarus at the time, other than their territorial claims and a short history. Input on the Belarusian People’ Republic would be greatly appreciated.