How long could slavery last in the USA after a Confederate victory?

[oudi14]

Over and over again, you see threads where it is asked about how long could slavery continue in a victorious CSA. It's been done to death. I never remember seeing anything on the flip side of the question.
Now, to give this some prospective, obviously there has to be a POD. The south couldn't just magically win. What I chose was Chancellorsville. In this TL, Lee did what he did as in OTL, but on steroids. And Hooker completely lost it, and wound up surrendering the entire AOP. It also helped that Stonewall didn't get hit by friendly fire, and came through the battle without a scratch. From there, Lee invaded the north, didn't go near DC, except to tear up the roads, rail lines, and telegraph wires into the city, and basically make it so that only daring riders could break through the blockade at night. One thing leads to another, and by mid summer, the war ends with a negotiated settlement. And the Union forces have to evacuate all CSA territory.
What I don't want to see happen is for this to turn into a discussion about what I just described being ASB, or whatever. If you think it is, so be it. What I am interested in is what I described above. As I see it, WV still comes in as a free state. Some hotheads in the Old Dominion might wish to send the ANV out to occupy the western counties, but I think cooler heads would prevail. As per OTL, it joins the Union on July 4, 1863. As a free state. Of course, Lincoln doesn't get re-elected; but I doubt Mcclellan is the candidate for the Dems in this TL either. So you have MD, DE, [with hardly any slaves] KY and MO. And I honestly don't know what happens next regarding the slaves in these states. Obviously Garrison, et al will continue to agitate for an end to it altogether, but I'm not sure that a wounded nation will give this as high a priority as it historically did. Perhaps not until circa 1870?

 

[Kaiser K]

Slavery in whatever the remaining slave states in the North would probably be abolished shortly after the war.

 

[Johnrankins]

Agreed, not very long but 1870 is doable. It is about as good a date as any.

 

[Benevolent]

As if the slave like sharecropping system wouldn't be even more brutal than it already was

As if the chain gang systems would become even more widespread.

Slavery would have continued, there is no doubt about it no law could change that miraculously even in someone's non-racist Confederate wet dream/fantasy

 

[oshron]

technically, there IS a go-around to slavery in the Union after a Confederate victory, it'd just be illegal. slavery has persisted through to the present-day IOTL, we just call it "human trafficking" now

 

[oudi14]

But, if 'm not mistaken, what you're referring to is what happens in the CSA. Of course, things will be brutal for the slaves there, but this is supposed to be about the USA. And I can't see any form of sharecropping happening there, not for any length of time at any rate. Correct me if I'm wrong, but only cotton involved sharecropping and that didn't grow in any of the aforementioned states [maybe in the bootheel of MO] Either way, slavery has to be gone within a decade. You may see Jim Crow laws in the border states.

As if the slave like sharecropping system wouldn't be even more brutal than it already was

As if the chain gang systems would become even more widespread.

Slavery would have continued, there is no doubt about it no law could change that miraculously even in someone's non-racist Confederate wet dream/fantasy

 

[Benevolent]

But, if 'm not mistaken, what you're referring to is what happens in the CSA. Of course, things will be brutal for the slaves there, but this is supposed to be about the USA. And I can't see any form of sharecropping happening there, not for any length of time at any rate. Correct me if I'm wrong, but only cotton involved sharecropping and that didn't grow in any of the aforementioned states [maybe in the bootheel of MO] Either way, slavery has to be gone within a decade. You may see Jim Crow laws in the border states.

Cotton was the primary but not the exclusive crop of sharecropping, it could be anything from peanuts to rice to sugar to like corn. The black population whether free or enslaved were still indebted and working primarily in agriculture for the most part unless they were lucky enough to get an education and be a part of the artisanal black elite.

 

[Johnrankins]

technically, there IS a go-around to slavery in the Union after a Confederate victory, it'd just be illegal. slavery has persisted through to the present-day IOTL, we just call it "human trafficking" now

Can you tell me HOW you can totally get rid of any crime outside of ASB mind control? Anti-slavery laws are strongly enforced in the US and have been for quite a long time.

 

[Indicus]

Slavery would be considered unpatriotic. We would see the lynching of slaveholders and I would say it would be abolished by 1867, when Radical Republicans gain control of Congress.

 

[Benevolent]

Slavery would be considered unpatriotic. We would see the lynching of slaveholders and I would say it would be abolished by 1867, when Radical Republicans gain control of Congress.

I think you have too much hope for the white population at that time tbh

 

[Johnrankins]

I think you have too much hope for the white population at that time tbh

Cold War logic, if your enemy is for it then you have to be against it. It might not be 1867 but I think he is right that it is inevitable over time.

 

[Benevolent]

Cold War logic, if your enemy is for it then you have to be against it. It might not be 1867 but I think he is right that it is inevitable over time.

The only reason why slavery would be maligned would be because the yeoman and poor white farm labourers would be angry at the enslaved person undercutting them.

They wouldn't attack the slave owner they attack the slave, anything other than that is laughable and unrealistic imo.

 

[NolanFoster]

The end of slavery in the border states would be delayed, but it's inevitable within 20 years. It depends on who holds office after the war.

 

[Johnrankins]

The only reason why slavery would be maligned would be because the yeoman and poor white farm labourers would be angry at the enslaved person undercutting them.

They wouldn't attack the slave owner they attack the slave, anything other than that is laughable and unrealistic imo.

1867 is probably too early for it but sooner or later it would probably happen. The US government will want to differentiate itself from its rival and the most obvious difference is slavery. The US government would slowly but surely do things that help accent that difference.

It has few, if any , downsides. It differentiates it from its chief rival making it easier to focus its energy against the CSA, helps it in Europe, helps encourage slaves to escape and weakening its chief rival. It is likely to take a decade or two but it will almost certainly happen.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Slavery would be considered unpatriotic. We would see the lynching of slaveholders and I would say it would be abolished by 1867, when Radical Republicans gain control of Congress.

Slavery might well be abolished, but I doubt the Republicans (who in this TL have just lost half the country to rebellion) would be in much of a position to gain control of Congress.

 

[Benevolent]

1867 is probably too early for it but sooner or later it would probably happen. The US government will want to differentiate itself from its rival and the most obvious difference is slavery. The US government would slowly but surely do things that help accent that difference.

It has few, if any , downsides. It differentiates it from its chief rival making it easier to focus its energy against the CSA, helps it in Europe, helps encourage slaves to escape and weakening its chief rival. It is likely to take a decade or two but it will almost certainly happen.

Save for radical Quaker towns in Ohio I literally can think of no real proponents who honestly cared about the black population being free and also remain in the US.

They wouldn't fight to have them fully integrated in the US, in all likelihood the continuous flow of European immigrants working in the industrialising economies of the north would push the freed black agrarian population into extreme marginalization being faced with a lot of anti-black discrimination coming from nearly all populations.

I can see an increase of black folks in an already rather black majority waning Whaling population in New England leading to an exodus of sorts but that'd be a trickle of the black population.

 

[Mackus]

Slavery dies out in the north after few years.
Slavery wasn't just an on/off switch, there was plenty of laws which were required for continued existence of institution, laws which were absolutely loathed in North, more than the fact that South kept slaves in itself.
Fugitive Slave acts (which would be repealed pretty quickly) made it possible to not only recapture slaves who ran to the north, but also enslave free black from northern state on flimsiest excuses without due process: "This black man who lives in Chicaga kinda looks like slave who escaped my plantation. No, I don't have evidence it was him. No, I don't care entire city knows him that he lived here free man all his life. You still need to hand him over, its the law."
This was what made slavery so hated in north, the fact that in order to perpetuate it sovereignty of northern states was violated. After congress of rump USA abolish Fugitive Slave Acts, slave catchers from last slave-holding states of Union (and from CSA!) are powerless to bring them back.
Now that slaves know they can get away with running off, slave owners have choice of either freeing them, threating them like they would free men, or hire so many guards cost would nullify benefits of free labour. It would be hard enough for slave owners in CSA, but in border states often day of walk away from freedom, slavery would be unsustainable.

 

[Johnrankins]

Save for radical Quaker towns in Ohio I literally can think of no real proponents who honestly cared about the black population being free and also remain in the US.

They wouldn't fight to have them fully integrated in the US, in all likelihood the continuous flow of European immigrants working in the industrialising economies of the north would push the freed black agrarian population into extreme marginalization being faced with a lot of anti-black discrimination coming from nearly all populations.

I can see an increase of black folks in an already rather black majority waning Whaling population in New England leading to an exodus of sorts but that'd be a trickle of the black population.

Different conditions, you seem to think a CSA victory would have no impact on US ideology. Look at the results of WWII. It is actually amazing how quickly respectable racism died out after the war. Outside of the Deep South respectable racism was pretty much dead by the late 1960s- early 1970s and in the Deep South by the mid 80s at the very latest.

 

[Benevolent]

Different conditions, you seem to think a CSA victory would have no impact on US ideology. Look at the results of WWII. It is actually amazing how quickly respectable racism died out after the war. Outside of the Deep South respectable racism was pretty much dead by the late 1960s- early 1970s and in the Deep South by the mid 80s at the very latest.

Haha, I don't know what world you live in but it's very much alive and well in the north to this day and it is quite open at that.

 

[guinazacity]

Different conditions, you seem to think a CSA victory would have no impact on US ideology. Look at the results of WWII. It is actually amazing how quickly respectable racism died out after the war. Outside of the Deep South respectable racism was pretty much dead by the late 1960s- early 1970s and in the Deep South by the mid 80s at the very latest.

What the fuck is respectable racism?