If Aleppo fell in 2012

[kspence92]

Four years ago when rebel forces stormed into Aleppo for the first time they succeeded to seizing several districts of the city before being pushed back and a stalemate setting in.

What if, for whatever reason, the rebels (back then mostly the secular army defectors of the FSA) succeeded in taking the city and its ammo stocks located in the bases dotting around the outskirts. Could it have become a defacto opposition capital like Benghazi during the Libyan civil war?

 

[viperzero]

That's what was hoped. The trouble I see is the Syrian Air Force bombing the hell out of it. I don't see that being good capital material.

 

[An Oklahoman]

Four years ago when rebel forces stormed into Aleppo for the first time they succeeded to seizing several districts of the city before being pushed back and a stalemate setting in.

What if, for whatever reason, the rebels (back then mostly the secular army defectors of the FSA) succeeded in taking the city and its ammo stocks located in the bases dotting around the outskirts. Could it have become a defacto opposition capital like Benghazi during the Libyan civil war?

It would likely boost the prestige of the secular rebels. HOwever, whether or not that would improve the plight of Allepo residents is hard to tell. On one hand they would be spared four years of continuous urban street combat, while on the other hand the Assad regieme would likely seek to demolish it with air and artillery in order to deter other cities from rising up. Should that occur then we might see greater calls for a "no-fly zone" aka a air intervention in Syria.

 

[Jürgen]

The reason Aleppo didn't fall completely wasn't because the regime had a lot soldiers, it was because the rebellion had little support in Aleppo, the rebels complained early in the conflict over thew unwillingness of the people of Aleppo to support the uprising. In general the early rebels in Aleppo was from rural areas around Aleppo, these have mostly been replaced by Islamist rebels in the years since. Of course the early rebels rob and looted, as example the machinery in the industry areas north of Aleppo was sold as scrap metal in Turkey. The new Islamist rebels was a improvement. But my guess is that if the Aleppo fall in 2012, we will see Christians of Aleppo robbed and expelled, the Sunni middle and upper class will go the same way, while any Alawite will be hanged from lamp posts.

Military the fall of Aleppo may be a net benefit for Assad early in the conflict as reaching Aleppo becomes unimportant, instead he can focus onthe connection between the coast and Damascus, and getting rid of the rebels in Damascus. In the longer term it will make it harder for him to reconquer the north even to the small degree he have succeed in it.

 

[Yun-shuno]

If the rebels secure Aleppo early on could they make a push to Damascus within the year?

 

[Jürgen]

If the rebels secure Aleppo early on could they make a push to Damascus within the year?

No it wasn't really connected, the only non-reginal rebels in the early conflict was the Muslim Brotherhood, which wasn't active in the Aleppo region. If the Rebels take Aleppo, those rebels will simply sit on Aleppo trying to milk for as many money as possible.

 

[jmc247]

Ironically better for the regime as the defenders in Aleppo had the manpower to spare for a war of attrition. Assad might go even more all out on the city with scuds, barrel bombs and in time VX and other gasses.

 

[Yun-shuno]

Ironically better for the regime as the defenders in Aleppo had the manpower to spare for a war of attrition. Assad might go even more all out on the city with scuds, barrel bombs and in time VX and other gasses.

That would give the US and the other western powers the excuse to go all out Libya 2011 and Assad's head would be on a pike by the end of 2013. Then I imagine the Islamic state conquers Syria and large parts ofIraq exterminates the other rebel groups and the situation goes to hell.