If Brown managed to win the 1976 Democratic Primaries,how would he do in the General Elections,who would he pick as his VP,and how different would his Presidency have been from Carter's? Also,would it be plausible for him to win the 1980 Elections somehow given the Iranian Hostage Crisis and similar things that hurt Carter?
Jerry Brown 1976?
- Thread starter Marthabutt
- Start date
I think '76 was too soon for Moonbeam, he was governor for less than two years. If he did win the nomination, Ford could probably beat him, considering how close he came to beating Carter OTL.
I suppose Moonbeam could possibly win CA with its 45 EVs, but he would do poorly in the South, where Carter won every state but VA. The south was still somewhat democratic, but it took a Carter or a Clinton to win majority support, southerners who were seen as moderate. A California liberal like Brown wouldn't sit well with the good ol' boys and their wives. So he loses. By a lot.
Jerry Brown is no liberal. Quite frankly, I don't know what he is. But I agree that he's to ideologically dissimilar from just about everyone that he gets beat like a drum.
I'm going to disagree and say he wins by a better margin than Carter. I mean, he'll be able to win the west coast and (relatively) compensate for losing Carter's southern strength. And besides that, Carter was a terrible campaigner, who turned what should've been a near-landslide into a bare win.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Sometimes the person who is almost nominated is looked favorably at four years later.
So, Brown is nominated, Ford wins the general but then faces the late 70s headwinds.
Does Carter win the Democratic nomination in 1980?
So, Brown is nominated, Ford wins the general but then faces the late 70s headwinds.
Does Carter win the Democratic nomination in 1980?
I don't see how he does better than Carter. If he wins the West Coast, it'll be narrow, as that was a Republican leaning region of the country at the time (California was the state that elected Ronald Reagan Governor twice). Plus, the northeast was still home to the Rockefeller Republicans, Brown will win all the states Carter won there, but nothing else. All of the South, including Texas will go to Ford, I don't know if the West coast alone will make up for those loses. Keep in mind to that Brown, politically was very eccentric, and that could cost him states like Wisconsin and Ohio, which were the closest states of the election OTL.
How Would he stay relevant after losing the nomination in '76? His term as governor had been over for years by the time he won the Presidency OTL. If he stays relevant, he's got a shot at the nomination in 1980, otherwise, not a chance.
Mitt Romney served one term as governor and got nominated six years after it was over, so it's possible. There's no way for Carter to return to high office without having to primary a strong incumbent Democrat though.
I'm not saying it isn't possible, I just wonder how Carter would stay relevant in this scenario without a primary against a strong incumbent Democrat? Romney, for better or worse, did stay relevant without challenging any Republican between 2008 and 2011.
I guess the trick will be to make 1976 a major battle between Brown and Carter, where Carter is seen by everyone as the clear runner-up who "should have won".
Alternate idea, and this may require another small POD, have Herman Talmadge resign in scandal from the Senate in 1977, and get Carter appointed to the Senate and then win election to the remainder of the term in 1978. Then instead of running for reelection in 1980 he runs for President and wins the nomination and presidency.
Makes sense, especially because Ford's chances of winning increase with Brown as the nominee (heck, I think Reagan would have a shot against Moonbeam).