The Tjibarri seem incredibly genre savvy and skilled at playing power politics than even contemporary old world powers would be on average. How old are the Aururian states compared to their Native American counterparts? Compared to them the older Aururian civilisations appear to have a degree of political sophistication well beyond any of them ever did. If any non-Afro Eurasian state has a chance of remaining intact after old world contact it is surely them.
Tjibarr, at this point, is the heir to some four thousand years of civilization and well over 1500 years of continuous literacy. More importantly, the kind of political skills Lopitja has are the kind Tjibarri government and society are designed to cultivate. The constant competition between factions for wealth and power encourages this level of gamesmanship — all the more so because it seems to be completely nonlethal. If you can't kill your enemies and you can't scare them, you have to outsmart them every single day.
While no analogy should be taken too closely, when thinking of Tjibarr and the Five Rivers, it may help to consider a comparison with classical Greece.
Classical Greece was able to support large urban populations (thanks to imported food), had strong philosophical and commercial traditions, and developed a whole range of new cultural concepts. The Five Rivers are also able to support relatively large urban populations (thanks to perennial crops), and thanks to natural transportation networks has a strong internal trade network, with subsidiary trade networks externally. The Five Rivers, too, came up with its own cultural innovations.
In particular, though, classical Greece also recognised the concept of balance of power. The Five Rivers states recognised this concept too, originally as four states fighting amongst themselves (Tjibarr, Gutjanal, Lopitja and Yigutji), then, after one of those collapsed due to climatic changes, with the rise of the new state of the Yadji to the south. So the Five Rivers - and Tjibarr in particular - think in terms both of balance of power,
and of how this can be disrupted by the appearance of a new power.
Naturally, no analogy is exact. The Five Rivers are heirs to a
longer direct tradition of literacy and continuous cultural development than Greece was; Greece lost literacy (mostly) during the Dark Ages, which was also a significant cultural interruption. Conversely, Greece can build on some older traditions (of Mesopotamian and Egyptian origin).
Of course, in some (though certainly not all) areas the Five Rivers is ahead of classical Greece - such as in medicine and distillation. The Five Rivers are behind overall due to not having as long a tradition of technology to build on, not being in a position to import technology from other places, and also things like a relative lack of domesticated animals.
On the whole, though, a general comparison to classical Greece is not a bad one.
It's not a society in which I could function, but if the Dutch are going to do things like the sacking of White City (and man, was I ever sorry to hear about that) then I'm glad they're up against Tjibarr.
The Tjibarri political system is certainly much more robust than that of, say, the Atjuntja or Yadji, or the Triple Alliance or Tawantinsuyu. It's not without its flaws, but on the whole it is much less vulnerable than most other states. The most obvious vulnerability, of course, is that Tjibarr has two neighbours (Gutjanal and Yigutji) who have a long tradition of rivalry, and who may perhaps be persuaded to move against Tjibarr.
Tjibarr does seem to be a society deliberately made to face off against competing colonialist powers. Even as Europeans take control of the continent, I think they will continue to shape Aururia's destiny.
Tjibarr wasn't intentionally designed to fend off invading powers - I simply ran with what seeming both interesting and plausible - but yes, they do have more potential for survival than most of their neighbours.
The Five Rivers has been the economic heart of Aururia for centuries if not millennia, which helps. Tjibarr also has an immense advantage of geography. Its heartland is simply very, very hard for Europeans to invade, being already at the end of a long supply line from Europe, and then requiring a long push inland upriver, where it's much easier for Tjibarr to send forces downriver.
As I think I've mentioned before, of the Aururian societies which have some chance to survive until 1800, the likely contenders are (in order), the Five Rivers, the Nuttana, the Yadji and (rank outsiders) the Patjimunra. Possibly the highlanders too, if only because colonising powers won't be too bothered by them.
Also, I'm interested to see that the French are coming into the continent. There power projection abilities seem inferior to the Dutch and English at this point, but it will be interesting to see if they can work with native allies to get a toehold on the continent (not that this would be a good thing in the long run for their native allies).
The French have some significant disadvantages in terms of building up the sort of merchant marine required to compete with the Dutch and English: not as much shipbuilding, plus a much stronger tendency to interfere with commercial activities via taxation and the like. Plus the general distraction of having to fight lots of land-based wars.
However, they do have some advantages of their own. Generally better at cooperating with local powers, for one. A decent presence in Aotearoa, for another. And the fact that they are neither English nor Dutch, which to some Aururian peoples makes a fair bit of difference.
Well, that was...certainly to be expected eventually. Though I do wonder what the future holds for the Middle Country. Puppet? Protectorate? Colony? Guess we'll see.
Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, the only question about the fate of the Atjuntja was how long they lasted. They may survive at a better level than, say, the Triple Alliance, but at the very least a very strongly-puppetised protectorate.
If Aurora as a whole were to have a continental flag what would it look like?
In the seventeenth or eighteenth centuries, probably an endless argument, although it wouldn't really occur to anyone to describe a continental flag of Aururia. (It would be like asking for a unified European flag during the same period.)
In the late nineteenth or twentieth centuries, such a thing might be conceivable, but it would probably give too much away to describe what such a flag might look like.
I must have missed some answers because these questions seem obvious to me.
Will Aurora undergo colonization?
Depends how you define colonisation, but yes, parts of it will at least. Of course, colonisation runs the whole gamut from "trading post" to "informal client state" to "protectorate" to "directly ruled subjects" to "settlement colony", so that leaves rather a lot of scope to choose from.
If you're asking about what the fate of all of Aururia will be in terms of colonisation, well, that hasn't been revealed yet.
What would the modern day population of Aurora and New Zealand be if it were to have these crops?
To a first approximation, the population of OTL Australia and NZ would be the same as OTL if they had access to the basic crops. Colonial Australia and NZ's population was not really limited by lack of food, so it wouldn't change too much - just have more food for export. Potentially some of the spices could act as minor immigration magnets, but probably not on a large scale.
For the ATL population of Australia and NZ in the twenty-first century... well, it'll be higher than OTL, but I'm not sure yet how much higher.
What is the opinion of Aurora for people of Sir Lanka and Madagascar?
Sri Lanka - "people we sell spices to (and buy from)"
Madagascar - "people where the slaves come from" - though that doesn't mean that they have any particular negative views of Malagasy people
per se - they don't really think of slavery in racial terms
Just to thank you for another great update. The Atjuntja's six seasons are a brilliant touch.
Most believable that the Dutch would act so, especially if it meant they could destroy the House of Pain.
The Dutch troops did get more out of control than was planned, but regardless of what else happened, they would move to quash the House of Pain and its faith as soon as they took effective control. The VOC had a great deal of religious tolerance - for practical reasons - but accepting human sacrifice would be beyond the pale even for them.
Division of the year into six or seven seasons depending on temperature, wind and rainfall is common among Australian Aboriginal peoples.
Yes, in OTL the equivalent indigenous people of south-western Australia - Noongar - divided their calendar into six seasons. The particular seasons which they used were different to the ones here, since I figured that here they would move to an agriculturally-based calendar, but the principle is the same.
Hopefully Tjibar will be able to survive as a buffer, like Thailand and Afghanistan did IOTL.
It's possible, though as always with such things, I don't reveal too much in advance.
Here is an area that I don't think has been touched on before : Russia. How is it doing at this point in the tL?
Very good question! I don't have too many details worked out - perhaps there's someone more familiar with the history of seventeenth-century Russia who might have a few more ideas.
Peter the Great, in and of himself, is obviously butterflied away, but that doesn't mean that there won't be a similar "modernising" ruler arising at some point. I don't know enough about Russian history to know whether Peter the Great was vital or whether he just represented general trends (i.e. will an analogue be likely to appear).
In general, Russia made it through the Aururian plagues no better and no worse off than most of its contemporaries. Russia did, however, benefit from the Swedish-Polish Wars in the middle of the century, in which an even-stronger Sweden aimed at Poland, and still effectively broke Poland's status as a great power. Russia stepped into part of that vacuum, though it, too, ended up fighting Sweden. (Such are the vagaries of warfare.)
The Russian push into Siberia had already begun in OTL, and won't have been greatly delayed by the Aururian plagues. Russia will have lost parts of its population, but the new plagues will make what was already a horrific death toll for the indigenous Siberian peoples even worse. Certainly Russia will have first reached the Pacific Ocean by no later than 1650 (a decade or so after OTL), if not earlier, and will continue its push to colonise Siberia.
In terms of other effects of contact with Aururia, well, Russia will be less affected than most. Trade is difficult, although some of the Aururian spices may flow through in a small way.
wrt trading goods with the Aururians, the Europeans may have some success with textiles.
In SE Asia what exchanged well for spice was the chintzes and silks of Bengal, and I could see it easily happen in Aururia. In Tasmania bulky textiles exchanged for bulky cider gum, even?
Perhaps the English broadcloth, which they so desperately tried to trade with the Chinese and Japanese, may find a market in Tasmania or New Zealand?
Textiles (or even raw cotton and silk) are certainly amongst the main goods which would be desired in Aururia. Indeed, in terms of steady trade, they're probably about the best there is. Some Asian spices would have high desireability too, but the European companies also want to ship some of those back to Europe. The native Aururian fibres (flax, plus a few minor ones) are not as versatile as cotton or silk or even wool. Textiles made from New Zealand flax would have some specialised uses, but on the whole cotton and silk would be more desirable.
Broadcloth (and other wool) is more ambiguous; New Zealand flax also has its advantages, although it might be more convenient for the Maori kings to just swap imported textiles for spices and then put their slaves to other uses.
*Tasmanian gum cider is by now not much of an export - not to European tastes - but imported textiles might be traded for gold and peppers (popular exports).
I expect the arrival of silk and lighter cotton clothes to have a huge effect on Aururian societies, but with the plagues and upheaval of the 17th Century clothing would be an easy target for those wishing to restore the old order, both from those in power and those without.
Perhaps bans of import, or sumptuary laws and taxes against Indian cloth, the proceeds of which would pay for the purchase of the more acceptable western musket, horse and armour?
Sumptuary taxes sound the most likely; the aristocrats and well-to-do will still want to wear the newer textiles, so why not make them pay for it?