I really don't like big mac but whoever us up timers might want to replace him with - that individual would have exactly the same problems and restrictions driving any hesitancy in ordering such a op.
Malaya What If
- Thread starter Fatboy Coxy
- Start date
Agreed. Me, I'd likely go, "Screw it, it's a go." The information is worth the risk to me, but even then only if the weather gave a solid chance of success. Otherwise you're taking a massive risk of kicking off a war for little to no return. If the weather looks good? Yeup, go for it.
And if the needed info comes back, strangely all it's gonna do is tell me I'm boned. I'm gonna have to ensure NONE of it gets out as morale will bottom out, plans (vs Emperor Mac's weird ones) don't really change (which means I'll last a little longer before inevitable capture or death); and my air force is totally screwed, being brutally outnumbered and outclassed. It gives me a better idea what I'm facing, but if I've been attention as I should for the last year, it's just confirming how completely isolated and outnumbered I already am.
The point? Mac was a arrogant self-deluded git, but in the end what happened was pretty much inevitable. Any changes are just moving deck chairs around on the Titanic and delaying the surrender that was going to happen no matter what. Had the fighters gone up as planned then you'd seen a bunch of dead US pilots, instead most survived because the air force was caught on the ground. That at least was a happy accident (though being a Japanese POW may not have been a good trade off, YMMV). NO amount of reconnaissance flights or hindsight changes the outcome for the Philippines. Unlike Malaya they're easy to immediately isolate, can not be reinforced once that's done, and were written off by the national high command from day one.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
Why other than his own personal arrogance didn’t MacArthur authorise reconnaissance flights over the Japanese positions in French Indochina and Formosa during 1941. Mac was under strict instructions not to give the Japanese a reason to start a war with the United States, and thus overflying Japanese or Vichy French territory was definitely off the table. Unlike the British who had just the same fears of provoking the Japanese into a war, the Americans had an additional disadvantage, due to the distance between their territory an the Japanese/Vichy French territories. They the Americans had to operate large multi engine aircraft in the reconnaissance role, whereas the British could operate converted single engine fighters. And again unlike the British, they didn’t have a hard land border with the Japanese, all of their reconnaissance missions involved a long overseas flight. So they were not able to as the British were, fly a photo reconnaissance aircraft along the border, and make the excuse, that given how ill defined the border was, the pilot made a navigation error. There is no doubt that Park would have been far more aggressive in his infiltration of Japanese territory if he had a few photo reconnaissance Spitfires and Mosquitos in his command. But he made the best use of what he had, and with the support of the Governor and Gort, was far more proactive than Mac was. Mac was operating under very strict rules from Washington, and lacking the experience that the British had against the Germans and Italians in Europe, wasn’t as informed as to the advantages that strategic as apposed to tactical photo reconnaissance provided. His general failure to establish a fully integrated and functioning intelligence system, was without doubt a major failure, but it was just as much a result of the general failure of the American system to to this day intergrated their intelligence systems. The British in the Far East had the CBFE, Combined Bureau Far East, which by now will be in addition to coordinating signals intelligence for all three services and the civilian sector, will be including photo surveillance and human intelligence. The Americans had no equivalent to this, and Mac didn’t have a single point of intelligence gathering but was forced to try to make sense of all the conflicting information himself.
RR.
RR.
Yeup, and Mac and his staff would be frustratingly very hit or miss with that said analysis throughout the war. Sometimes through no fault of their own, sometimes very much so.
Though to be fair, due to the issues with the parochial nature of American intelligence services protecting their turf, every US commander had these issues. Most had better a staff, however, not one overly stuffed (though not all) with sycophants.
It's a short list. LT GEN Fredendall or LT GEN Drum come to mind. Leave FM MacArthur as Generalissimo of the Army of the Philippines. Instead of just Tokyo Rose, there can be Manila Mac./sarc
Just an amusing aside that Coxy or others could incorporate into this timeline or any other timeline concerning the fighting in SEA during WW2.
It is apparent from JNAF and JAAF after action reports that Japanese pilots frequently misidentified P-40s and Hurricanes as 'Spitfires', particularly over Burma, Ceylon and Darwin. During the NEI fighting they even misidentified Dutch P-36s as 'Hurricanes', which is not as glaring a mistake as it may seem - try imagining a radial-engined Hurricane and it actually does not look TOO dissimilar to a P-36.
It is apparent from JNAF and JAAF after action reports that Japanese pilots frequently misidentified P-40s and Hurricanes as 'Spitfires', particularly over Burma, Ceylon and Darwin. During the NEI fighting they even misidentified Dutch P-36s as 'Hurricanes', which is not as glaring a mistake as it may seem - try imagining a radial-engined Hurricane and it actually does not look TOO dissimilar to a P-36.
The British are trying to maintain their 350+ year old Empire. The Japanese are attempting to expand their Empire. The Americans are trying to
establish a global Mercantilist Empire, as the British had in North American. That's the easy observation.
The British definitely had a head start of 300+ years on Intelligence Services. Were the Japanese Intelligence Services established as courtiers or functioning?
The American Intelligence Services are an oxymoron at times. Intelligence can be gathered, but is often dismissed or pigeonholed. Then again, the US Flag is
patterned on the East India Company...
Which one appears most inspiring? Appearances can be deceiving. Somehow, I can't get Floyd the Barber (Andy Griffith Show) out of my mind when I see GEN Drum.
File:MacArthur Manila (cropped2).jpg - Wikipedia
File:L.R.Fredendall.jpg - Wikipedia
File:Hugh Drum.jpg - Wikipedia
I for one, imagine a moustache and spectacles on LT GEN Drum
Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
Hi Nevarinemex, this is an interesting post, in part because, pardon my ignorance but I've never heard of Gen Hugh Drum. With one eye on the options that might play out in this timeline, it did get me thinking that should Mac's performance be seen as poor, assuming the British do better, then there might come a time for the Americans replacing him as the senior US commander in this theatre. And yes, your right, Fredendall is a inspiring, has Marshal's support, seems to have a good reputation, and an ability to self promote, which given your replacing Mac, may be a given requirement. And there is no reason I can see to have the hindsight of how things went for him in North Africa.Which one appears most inspiring? Appearances can be deceiving. Somehow, I can't get Floyd the Barber (Andy Griffith Show) out of my mind when I see GEN Drum.
File:MacArthur Manila (cropped2).jpg - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
File:L.R.Fredendall.jpg - Wikipedia
File:Hugh Drum.jpg - Wikipedia
I for one, imagine a moustache and spectacles on LT GEN Drum
Not having a Scoobie (surely this has to be an American expression) about The Andy Griffith show, I can look at Gen Hugh Drum a little dispassionately, and yes I guess he could be a contender, but how does Marshal view him.
Of course given the paucity of American troops that might be available, they might both be too senior to command, which could allow the American troops to serve under an ABDA commanded by Lord Gort.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
Was the British various intelligence agencies successful during the intra war period and WWII, to which I believe the answer is Yes/No. Yes the British along with her Commonwealth allies ran a very successful intelligence campaign against the Axis powers. However they completely failed against their principal enemy, the Soviet Union, which managed to completely infiltrate both the British intelligence agencies and the UK Government. One of the main reasons why they were so successful against the Axis powers, is that they the Axis powers were so disorganised and riven with internal conflicts, and spent as much time fighting each other as they did fighting the British. Note Britain had a number of significant failures, it didn’t realise for a long time that the Germans had broken its naval codes, or that the Germans had effectively taken control of the efforts of SOE, in Denmark, Holland and Belgium. But overall the British were able to learn from their mistakes, and had significant depth to their intelligence system, so as to overcome their failures. Germany had far better optics than Britain, and the British spent the first few years of the war using second rate cameras and second rate aircraft, in their photo reconnaissance efforts. However by mid war the British had established a very effective photo reconnaissance system, that provided them with a major source of information. And it was a system , that involved experts from all the services and the civilian sector, it ran its own training program for photo interpreters and a research program into better cameras and aircraft. Plus it was able once it had realised the advantage of doing so, it ran a highly successful counter photo intelligence program. Taking photos of its own territory to see what information it revealed, and suggesting methods to mitigate the information that was available to its enemies, from their own photo reconnaissance efforts. Britains intelligence agencies managed to punch above their weight during WWII, and provided the government and military with much valuable information, and were far more integrated than those of the Axis or America. This was as much due to the old boys network, as it was to planning, and this network was very much responsible for its major failings in the post war period. It should always be remembered that the various British intelligence agencies were comparatively young, with five and six only being formed just before World War One. While the Twenty Committee and SOE, were wartime formations, and the JIC was only came into being in 1936, but all of them were lead by chaps who knew each other, and they didn’t operate under the far more formal rules that their American counterparts did, rules that often precluded cooperation.
RR.
RR.
MWI 41120521 Gort and Phillips Agree On Bullring
Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
1941, Friday 05 December;
The summary was finished, the facts (as much as they had) laid bare. All the senior officers and the aides had left the room, leaving just the two of them. They looked at each other across the table, Phillips speaking first.
"Winston and the Chiefs of Staff have finally done it. After all this time, you've got the green light. It's your call, Tiger. I can sail out and then turn around and come back, and not start a war, but when you move into Thailand, we're committed. And if you're wrong, Winston will hang you out to dry, be sure of it. The terms of launching Matador are pretty clear: you have to be certain they are going to attack us. The occupation of Thailand on its own isn't sufficient. Any war with Japan and the Americans not in it would simply be a disaster for us all."
"Yes, Tom, it's a frightful decision But I'm convinced it's the only way we can put up a good show in defending ourselves. I'm just thankful they made the decision when they did. I honestly feared they wouldn't agree to it. But before I make the definitive call, how do you feel about supporting me?"
"Well, as we've just heard, significant Japanese Naval forces are on the move south, along with a large number of transports, with a further considerable number of transports sheltering in Cam Ranh Bay. But as yet we've seen no movement from any of the carriers in Japan. I'd expect a couple of them at least. So what are you proposing, Tiger?"
"Execute Operation Picador. Sail tomorrow, and be in an advantageous position, and I would go Sunday morning - or not: depends on what happens in the next 24 hours. If we have called it wrong, all I'll have done is sent over my SOE agents, and they will be laying low, while you can turn back and call it a fleet exercise. But if we're right, and I go Sunday morning, you're already in place to help me with any invasion forces."
"In principle, that works for me. But what air cover do you guarantee me, Tiger, if I go, regardless of whether you launch Matador or not?"
"Tom, Keith says he can provide a continuous CAP of four Hurricanes during the daylight hours, up to 60 miles out at sea from Kota Bharu down to Trengganu, and 100 miles seawards south of that. In addition, he can provide ASW flights from Kota Bharu southwards. He'll maintain air reconnaissance over the Gulf of Siam as far north as the line Surat Thani and Phu Quoc, weather permitting. As far north as Singora, if a Japanese invasion force tries to land, he will hit it with everything he has. You have my word: he will deliver on all of that."
"OK, that's fine, Tiger. But have you thought of this: what if my presence out there puts them off, and they simply land in Thailand? Where does that leave you?"
"Frankly, Tom, have you any idea how many nights I've laid awake thinking of that? It's given me bloody nightmares. If I enter Thailand, and there is no war, my head would be on the block. But I keep asking myself this: why would Japan go to all that trouble to do that? They'll just give advance warning of what's to come. You've heard the intelligence reports, the really secret ones. War is coming, it's just a matter of when."
Phillips stood up, picked his cap up off the table, put it on, adjusted its rake in the mirror, and turned to Gort, hand out to shake. Gort rose and stepped forward, shaking hands. "OK, Tiger, I'll do it. If I get a wriggle on, I can sail at 5am, hmm, maybe earlier, yes, earlier the better, I think. I need to put some things in place. Palliser will remain behind; he can take care of things here while I'm gone. I want the air cover agreement written down and a copy signed by you in my hands before I go. It's not that I don't trust you, but for my own benefit, should something go terribly wrong. I'll shake hands and wish you well now, Tiger, we might not have the chance later. Good luck, old boy!"
"Thank you, Tom, I'm grateful for your support. Yes, you'll have the letter directly. I'll have it typed up as soon as we finish. And if things do turn out as expected, good hunting to you, and the best of luck."
Phillips found Palliser in a side room They walked back to the car, and once inside, Phillips told him of the agreement, and Palliser's forthcoming role. Meantime, Gort had both Percival and Park back in the room and quietly explained the agreement to them.
Afterwards, orders given, letter written and dispatched, Lord Gort sat back, a large scotch in his glass, and wondered again if what he was doing was the right thing. The relief he'd felt when London had agreed to giving him authority had taken a weight off his mind, while at the same time it had given his confidence a boost. He considered why it was quite so important to him that he had felt the need to press Winston for the authority on launching Matador. How much easier to have just left it as a suggestion, and if war happened, shrug the shoulders and say what could he do. But he remembered the despair he'd felt in France, waiting on decisions from Billotte and Gamelin, and the interference from Churchill at that time. That, and the conviction that he had done the right thing in the end by ordering the retreat of the BEF to Dunkirk, had convinced him. He had to be his own man; the decision would be his to make.
Quite how the Chiefs had managed to get Churchill's agreement was something he briefly wondered over. Perhaps Phillips's ruse in dressing it all up into ‘Bullring' helped. But more pressing needs quickly put that to the back of his mind. What he wasn't really appreciative of was that while the decision was now in his hands, Churchill and the Chiefs would now worry that he got the decision right. And the possible consequences: the transatlantic cables between Churchill and the President, and the discussions between Roosevelt and his Joint Chiefs of Staff, to get American support for this had only delivered a vague verbal nod, nothing in writing. It was as good as it was going to get, but just how good was that?
The summary was finished, the facts (as much as they had) laid bare. All the senior officers and the aides had left the room, leaving just the two of them. They looked at each other across the table, Phillips speaking first.
"Winston and the Chiefs of Staff have finally done it. After all this time, you've got the green light. It's your call, Tiger. I can sail out and then turn around and come back, and not start a war, but when you move into Thailand, we're committed. And if you're wrong, Winston will hang you out to dry, be sure of it. The terms of launching Matador are pretty clear: you have to be certain they are going to attack us. The occupation of Thailand on its own isn't sufficient. Any war with Japan and the Americans not in it would simply be a disaster for us all."
"Yes, Tom, it's a frightful decision But I'm convinced it's the only way we can put up a good show in defending ourselves. I'm just thankful they made the decision when they did. I honestly feared they wouldn't agree to it. But before I make the definitive call, how do you feel about supporting me?"
"Well, as we've just heard, significant Japanese Naval forces are on the move south, along with a large number of transports, with a further considerable number of transports sheltering in Cam Ranh Bay. But as yet we've seen no movement from any of the carriers in Japan. I'd expect a couple of them at least. So what are you proposing, Tiger?"
"Execute Operation Picador. Sail tomorrow, and be in an advantageous position, and I would go Sunday morning - or not: depends on what happens in the next 24 hours. If we have called it wrong, all I'll have done is sent over my SOE agents, and they will be laying low, while you can turn back and call it a fleet exercise. But if we're right, and I go Sunday morning, you're already in place to help me with any invasion forces."
"In principle, that works for me. But what air cover do you guarantee me, Tiger, if I go, regardless of whether you launch Matador or not?"
"Tom, Keith says he can provide a continuous CAP of four Hurricanes during the daylight hours, up to 60 miles out at sea from Kota Bharu down to Trengganu, and 100 miles seawards south of that. In addition, he can provide ASW flights from Kota Bharu southwards. He'll maintain air reconnaissance over the Gulf of Siam as far north as the line Surat Thani and Phu Quoc, weather permitting. As far north as Singora, if a Japanese invasion force tries to land, he will hit it with everything he has. You have my word: he will deliver on all of that."
"OK, that's fine, Tiger. But have you thought of this: what if my presence out there puts them off, and they simply land in Thailand? Where does that leave you?"
"Frankly, Tom, have you any idea how many nights I've laid awake thinking of that? It's given me bloody nightmares. If I enter Thailand, and there is no war, my head would be on the block. But I keep asking myself this: why would Japan go to all that trouble to do that? They'll just give advance warning of what's to come. You've heard the intelligence reports, the really secret ones. War is coming, it's just a matter of when."
Phillips stood up, picked his cap up off the table, put it on, adjusted its rake in the mirror, and turned to Gort, hand out to shake. Gort rose and stepped forward, shaking hands. "OK, Tiger, I'll do it. If I get a wriggle on, I can sail at 5am, hmm, maybe earlier, yes, earlier the better, I think. I need to put some things in place. Palliser will remain behind; he can take care of things here while I'm gone. I want the air cover agreement written down and a copy signed by you in my hands before I go. It's not that I don't trust you, but for my own benefit, should something go terribly wrong. I'll shake hands and wish you well now, Tiger, we might not have the chance later. Good luck, old boy!"
"Thank you, Tom, I'm grateful for your support. Yes, you'll have the letter directly. I'll have it typed up as soon as we finish. And if things do turn out as expected, good hunting to you, and the best of luck."
Phillips found Palliser in a side room They walked back to the car, and once inside, Phillips told him of the agreement, and Palliser's forthcoming role. Meantime, Gort had both Percival and Park back in the room and quietly explained the agreement to them.
Afterwards, orders given, letter written and dispatched, Lord Gort sat back, a large scotch in his glass, and wondered again if what he was doing was the right thing. The relief he'd felt when London had agreed to giving him authority had taken a weight off his mind, while at the same time it had given his confidence a boost. He considered why it was quite so important to him that he had felt the need to press Winston for the authority on launching Matador. How much easier to have just left it as a suggestion, and if war happened, shrug the shoulders and say what could he do. But he remembered the despair he'd felt in France, waiting on decisions from Billotte and Gamelin, and the interference from Churchill at that time. That, and the conviction that he had done the right thing in the end by ordering the retreat of the BEF to Dunkirk, had convinced him. He had to be his own man; the decision would be his to make.
Quite how the Chiefs had managed to get Churchill's agreement was something he briefly wondered over. Perhaps Phillips's ruse in dressing it all up into ‘Bullring' helped. But more pressing needs quickly put that to the back of his mind. What he wasn't really appreciative of was that while the decision was now in his hands, Churchill and the Chiefs would now worry that he got the decision right. And the possible consequences: the transatlantic cables between Churchill and the President, and the discussions between Roosevelt and his Joint Chiefs of Staff, to get American support for this had only delivered a vague verbal nod, nothing in writing. It was as good as it was going to get, but just how good was that?
There is always the problem that the USAFFE outlived ABDA in OTL .
Sounds more like Cockney rhyming slang to me. Scoobie Doo = clue.
If I remember correctly, the US State Dept, i.e. "Foggy Bottom" issued on 4 DEC 41 a briefing about the UK and Thailand. The tenor was that US Foreign Policy would no
longer be swayed, should the British engage martially, with the Kingdom of Thailand. I came about this when I was researching the Foggy Bottom Chronology in 1941. It's
late. It might not trickle down to the British Far East quickly. But PM Churchill would have been aware NLT the morning of 5 DEC 41.
There is a problem I can envision for Force Z. Their CAP is extended into an area where the IJN 22nd NAF might operate. So A6M might accompany a second or third flight. It is
not out of the question. How well Hurricanes operate over open ocean is yet to be seen. Going for the level bombers at the expense of leaving torpedo bombers unmolested,
may accomplish the same outcome.
Errolwi
Monthly Donor
<pours one out for Rear Admiral Sir Christopher George Francis Maurice Cradock KCVO CB SGM>
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
So the Chiefs of Staff in London have been able to overcome the intense objections of the Foreign Office, and persuade Winston to give Gort permission to carry out his plans. Phillips is right, if it all goes wrong and Gort has managed to get Britain into a war with Japan, without the Americans coming on board, Winston will put all the blame on Gort and hang him out to dry. However given what we know of Japanese plans, and the speed of information distribution at the time, the Japanese will have conducted their attack against Pearl Harbour, before the official announcement by the British of their actions is released. And given just how monstrous the attack on Pearl is for the American press, and the welter of other news, Japanese assault on Hong Kong and other areas, the British preemptive action in Malaya/Thailand, is going to appear below the fold in the majority of Western papers. Phillips is right to insist that he has a singed copy of the letter promising continues air coverage of his fleet, not because he doesn’t trust Gort or Park, he does. He needs to be able to prove to the Admiralty if everything goes pear shaped, that he wasn’t reckless and sailed off without any thought of the possible consequences. Phillips is confused by the lack of Japanese aircraft carriers in the region, he knows that the intelligence agencies are good enough to spot them if they were there. And he also knows that it would be foolish at best, to send a major invasion fleet into the South China Sea without carrier support. And that is why there is a niggling though at the back of his mind, that the invasion fleet is headed for Thailand and not Malaya, and is designed to provoke a premature reaction by the British. It’s only when he receives news of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, that everything will make sense to him, and he will be able to proceed without the fear of running into a Japanese carrier force. He will only have to worry about land based aircraft, and provide that he is only attacked by unescorted bombers, his four Hurricane CAP, will prove adequate to significantly disrupt such an attack. Strangely the people who will be most upset by the British preemptive strike into Thailand is not the Thais but the Japanese who will be incandescent with rage that the British have stolen a match on them. To their mind the oh so proper British are not meant to do such things, they were meant to wait until they were attacked, blissfully drinking gin slings and playing bridge. The forgot that we British didn’t gain the worlds greatest empire, by being nice fools who only play the game according to the rules. We British are a to a great extent still are the worlds most sneaky dirty underhand backstabbing basteds, who will do whatever it takes to come out on top. It’s just that we do it with style, manners, and a degree of polish that means that as we stick the knife in we always apologise. Remember the worlds biggest money laundering centre is not some third world country or Caribbean Island, it’s the City of London, were nice chaps in impeccable suits will with the cooperation of the British government, take your ill gotten money and wash it for you, for a suitable fee.
RR.
RR.