Part Seven
INTERLUDE TWO; - Raising a Big 'IF' at a Planning Conference.
Main Conference Room, Top Floor
OKM Annex, Blenderblock Building
Berlin 11 May 1937.
The results of the sometimes-heated discussions that had taken place since the commencement of the meeting had to date largely been in line with Konteradmiral Wever’s expectations coming into the conference. Little more than preliminary maneuvering and confirmation of the key features already largely known and discussed in the outline detail of Plan Z shortly to presented to Hitler and the OKW. With eight senior admirals of the Kreigsmarine present, not counting himself, Wever had contributed little to date, keeping silent for the moment knowing that his own contribution would undoubtedly disrupt this overall appearance of accord soon. Having already sent out an outline precis to all parties of his case, he was reasonably sure that all the interested parties were largely waiting as well for him to raise what was undoubtedly going to be a contentious counter to the outline plan notionally being finalized at this moment.
Presiding over the meeting from the center of the long table, Generaladmiral Raeder, in his role as Commander in Chief, had said very little to date, allowing Vizeadmiral Rolf Carls his deputy as Flottenchef (Fleet Commander) to run the preliminary phase of the meeting. As Fleet Commander, and highest-ranking administrative officer of the OKM, Carls was a key officer instrumental in drafting Germany's pre-war naval war plans, and collating that with the draft of Plan Z. Beyond giving Wever a level stare as they took their seats, Raeder had given little indication to how he regarded the paper outlining Wever’s stance he knew he had received, allowing Carls to present unhindered the planned submission.
At this point, there was an obvious break, and for the first time Admiral Raeder, spoke up, bringing immediate silence down the table. “I have recently received an interesting submission from Admiral Wever, and I assume you have all received a copy and the opportunity to study his presentation” pausing while there was a general murmur of assent or nodding response from the gathering, “Before opening this up for debate, he has asked to summarize some other additional aspects and possible issues that he felt best not immediately put on paper, but nevertheless, needs to be discussed in confidence amongst us, prior to presenting it a wider forum outside of OKM,” causing some stir down the table, before gesturing, “Admiral, your forum.”
Standing and conscious that all sets of eyes were on him He paused briefly before commencing. “I wish to begin by restating the obvious, that as you are all well aware I am originally from a non-Kreigsmarine or Reichsmarine background and these observations are presented from this external perspective as a result, and that is reflected to a degree in some of the points to be made. Let me clearly state this because external perceptions of our presented Plan Z, particularly with the other services, are going to be of importance if it is to be implemented as part of the wider Wehrmacht planning. Firstly, let me say that Plan Z represents our wish list for forming a fleet capable of challenging the naval power of the Great Britain and to be completed by 1948. If we are successful in attaining acceptance of the plan, then it will be essential that we prioritize the actual construction queue of vessels as it is my assessment that we will not have this full timeframe to complete construction of the numbers designated in this plan. In saying this, I am confident that it is probable that we will be involved in active hostilities with the UK in less than five years, given the current national foreign policy and stated political agenda,” pausing as there was some shuffling and exchange of looks. “I am happy to debate this analysis further or if you wish to investigate this further, but I would recommend that OKM must give this some allowance if we attain approval to proceed.”
“I will state now that effectively I believe that it will be virtually impossible to attain ratification of Plan Z, or if approval is given then that successful implementation will be subverted largely before it can achieve any contribution to the existing force strength of the navy.” Delivery of this flat pronouncement caused an obvious wave of reaction to sweep over almost all present as Wever Pressed on. “I base this on two clear factors, one simply a matter of logistic fundamentals, and the second on recognition that progress in undertaking this program can only be possible with the cooperation, or at least without active interference of the other service. This in my honest opinion is currently highly unlikely, in fact almost impossible to guarantee at the moment, and I can almost certainly guarantee that the opposite will occur to Plan Z as tendered.”
Sweeping his gaze around to meet those of the attendees he now had the total attention of all. “Firstly, the reason for requesting this secure forum and why I have avoided putting of this to paper yet, is it will be a key issue that the other services can use to attack any naval expansion plans we may present, including Plan Z as tendered, and that this OKM will have to be prepared to defend however we proceed.” Meeting directly the gaze of Raeder, he paused, then seeing the nod to go on he continued. “If we gain approval for this level of construction, then subsequently securing the fuel oil necessary to operate the fleet will likely be an insurmountable problem. Fuel consumption will more than quadrupled between 1936 levels and the completion of the program in 1948, from 1.4 million tons now to over 6 million tons. The navy would have to construct some 9.6 million tons worth of storage facilities for enough fuel reserves to allow for less than a year of wartime operations; longer conflicts would of course necessitate an even larger stockpile. Compared to the combined fuel requirements of the Kriegsmarine, Heer (Army), Luftwaffe (Air Force), and the civilian economy, the projected domestic production by 1948 of less than 2 million tons of oil and 1.34 million tons of diesel fuel is absurdly low. Needless to say, if these figures are obtained by either service then the construction program will die still born.” Gesturing his aide, who proceeded to pass out documents to those seated he continued, “Copies of this analysis and the figures used to arrive at these totals are here for your information and confirmation. For all that this is likely to limit any future progress in this plan, I wish to advise that we need to assume that even before presenting Plan Z, we are very likely to lose out it terms of available resources and be placed far below those of both the Heer and the Luftwaffe.”
The reaction to this sweeping statement was far less muted, a murmur of discussion rising over the sounds of papers turning as some of the grouped flag officers studied the presented documents, with others obviously more intent on the developing debate, waiting for a response from the senior figures present. Calmly waiting, Wever held the gaze of Admiral Raeder to see his response, before his gazed flicked to Admiral Carls, before returning. “An interesting summation Admiral, would you care to elaborate further?” with a slight hand gesture to continue as both Flag Officers leant attentively forward.
“I am aware that as a service in the postwar period we have been conflicted over what direction future construction should take. Since Plan Z’s development began it reflects the strategic thinking of this body for the fleet necessary to battle the Royal Navy. This force structure would be required should the current aggressive foreign policy make conflict with Britain increasingly likely. The path ahead in that situation requires the major fleet expansion detailed, at the very time when it is least likely that the resources required to achieve this will be available.” Here, realizing he was leaning forward perhaps too earnestly in his intent, he paused, leaning back to take a sip of water from the glass ahead of him, before resuming. “What we as a service will face is the probability that I believe the Kreigsmarine will be lucky to receive 10 to 15% of any resource allocation of the upcoming armaments expansion program, and far less than called for to implement Plan Z, despite whatever promises are presented," again pausing for emphasis. "It’s on this basis that I think we need to prepare our future direction for planning purposes. As the Americans crudely like to say, ‘How much bang for our buck can we get?' given such limitations should they occur. I have my own thoughts and contributions on how I think we can best achieve this and am happy to present this and discuss possible objectives and defend this statement as well. All I wish to ask from you all now is your consideration on how we ourselves can proceed as a body facing the dilemma of having insufficient or reduced force at a time when we need to maximize its capabilities as outlined in Plan Z. We need alternatives, otherwise we face an insurmountable force imbalance and that can only lead to a repeat of the ignominy of the Great War.”
Deliberately finishing on this stinging reminder, Wever leant back in obvious conclusion, letting the hubbub it had invoked wash over him, observing and being observed in turn by the two most senior Kreigsmarine officers opposite. In some ways it was cathartic to be forthright in such a forum, but also felt a deep calmness in his conviction and acceptance in the rightness of his course, and now simply awaited the outcome of his clearly stated case.
The next few moments passed as obvious debate and discussion washed around the table once the parties involved obviously concluded that he had finished for the moment. Walther peripherally registered mixed reactions, some nodding and some frowning looks amidst the discussions, as Raeder conferred briefly with Carls’s opposite, displaying little immediate reaction, before leaning forward to address him, bringing silence again to the table. ‘Just how certain are you of this outcome Admiral, on what grounds do you base the Assertion?” he queried.
With a slight shrug, Wever replied, “It matters little really at the moment, proof will come in the next few weeks when we all known Generalfeldmarschall Göring will announce the colossal armament program to dramatically increase the size and power of the German armed forces, with all due fanfare. I could specifically cover details, such as strong opposition from elements of the SS,” at this point meeting Raeder’s eye’s he saw him mouth ’Heidrich?’ and nodded briefly in response, before continuing, “Or I could detail feedback from my Luftwaffe associations. Simply put it’s not worth our time at the moment specifically detailing as to all the why’s, many of which you already know very well. Proof will be in the pudding at the time, and if I’m wrong then I’m wrong and I’m sure that this body will respond appropriately,” calmly sweeping his gaze around participants, accepting that this would be career ending if such was to occur. “What I do believe we can do at this time is to shape a response to minimize damage and maximize possible tradeoffs for best effect with cooperating with the Heer and Luftwaffe. For instance, if we go in prepared to ‘sacrifice’ battleship construction,” he said holding up crooked fingers, “we can gain leverage with the Heer as they get ‘additional’ armor for tank construction. Alternately we can offer to put carriers as a construction priority over battleships, again emphasizing the armor sacrifice involved to benefit the army, and probably gain Luftwaffe support in such event. I know this would seem self-serving for the MFK, but this is just one example of the level of horse trading possible and is where I think this meeting needs to be heading. Equally it can just as well be U-boat construction” nodding to Doenitz who was frowning initially, head of the U-boatwaffe, “if that is what will be our most effective course in developing an operational strategy to offset the RN advantages.”
“Presenting the Plan Z is a starting point, our best case shall we say, but it needs to also be seen as our platform to base some serious horse trading from if the situation requires. This is the mindset I think we need to be readying now in response and how we as the Kreigsmarine can best position ourselves. In this, I can detail a number of MFK possible tradeoffs with the Luftwaffe and contingencies which I am prepared to outline, and these and similar ideas are the points we should be detailing in preparation. Also, possibly some operational plans that could evolve to include active Luftwaffe planning and support, realistically involving their participation in some of the heavy lifting in a confrontation with the RN.” Having stated his position, Wever again leaned back, waiting if the other senior figures gathered would take up this stance and run with it.
Without looking around too noticeably, as far as he could discern there appeared more interest generally, some nods or thoughtful expressions obvious, without any obvious eagerness to be the first responder. Observing the two senior figures opposite, He couldn’t help notice as the murmur of discussion quickly quietened as the pause lengthened, other parties at the table now also watching for the response. Scrutinizing their faces, it was obvious both were deep in thought, Admiral Carls with a slight frown on his brow, while Admiral Raeder sat more stone-faced meeting his gaze, but with one finger tapping his bottom lip. Then rocking back with a slight nod before rocking forward. he addressed the table in general. “Interesting,” pausing then addressing the table in general, “then I take it light of this observation,” here obviously mimicking Wever’s earlier crooked figure gesture, “there are now no immediate objections with presenting Plan Z as is, to the upcoming Wehrmacht meeting?” and with a general indication of accent sweeping down the table he continued, “then we shall proceed with that matter unchanged to find out what awaits us then. Since that matter appears now settled, then let us now continue in more general terms to discuss the notions presented so generously by Admiral Wever.”
Wever found himself sharing in the serration of surprise that met this declaration, as Raeder leant forward with a faint twitch of his lips as he directed his full attention to his subordinate opposite. “Perhaps you could outline in broad-brush terms some of the considerations and thoughts you have regarding this, if only to prompt some feedback from the other parties here.”
“You want me to open a general discussion in this forum…, to monologue?” he couldn’t help blurt in his surprise at this response, the last thing he expected.
“Yes. Why not?” Came the response from the General admiral, an undoubted slight grim smile now adorning his face. “Having so unmistakably nailed your flag to the mast, the future is now out of your control. Let us take advantage of this opportunity and see what such forthrightness can generate amongst us,” sweeping his gaze across the gathering. “Be our guest to monologue away freely, and perhaps we shall gain an advantage from such frankness.”
Wever couldn’t help but glance around at the other seated flag-officers, a gamut of mixed expressions visible as they too sought to adjust to the unexpected digression the conference was taking. Then briefly closing his eyes to gather his racing thoughts, unaware he was unconsciously kneading the bridge of his nose, as he strove to marshal them in a coherent manner to be presented. Then opening them he straightened and addressed the room as a whole. “Thank-you, General admiral for this unexpected opportunity to excel,” he opened, generating at least one hoped for snort of mirth from the table. “If this monologue appears unstructured and jumps around, please bear with me, as it covers several areas that appear disjointed, but in context form part of a wider picture. In all frankness I feel it poses questions about how we as a service should proceed and I honestly don’t know a satisfactory solution myself, so in the end I hope any open discourse will leave feedback that leads to some answers,” and having opened with a disclaimer he mustered his hastily ordered thoughts and commenced.
“To begin with, before my accident and transfer, as Luftwaffe chief of staff one of my projects was to contract for a four-engine long range strategic bomber project, “The Ural Bomber”. Besides targeting soviet Russia in accordance with Hitlers Eastern “Lebensraum” directive outlined in Mein Kampf, it was also aimed at the key strategic Caucus oilfields. Datum point,” he said with a nod. “This involves operations against Poland, which will almost certainly result in hostilities against Britain and France. Datum Point. Outside of this in event of war, the only sizeable oil assets likely available easily are from Romania who will probably export but insufficient for Germany’s needs, particularly in time of war. The other option is to undertake operations targeting the Middle East, Iran, Arabia etc. This undoubtedly will result in conflict with Britain. Datum Point. For these strategic imperatives I can only conclude we will inevitably face conflict with Britain and our forces must be orientated to undertake operations aligned with this eventuality.” A brief pause making eye contact around the table and seeing obvious nodding and agreement he continued.
“In continuation from this, with my accident, the Luftwaffe focus has switched to shorter range tactical aircraft, optimized to support Army operations, gaining their support. Datum point. Despite this, they have supported the continuation of one Heinkel four engine design, the Ju190, evolved from the Ural Bomber concept, which we require as a long-range maritime patrol aircraft. This is a key component for any successful planning involving any naval operation in the North Sea and Atlantic. Do I need to elaborate on this aviation requirement?” he briefly paused, and seeing no response continued. “This collaboration and resulting Luftwaffe support only came about as Goering is enamored with a large troop transport for his pet Fallschirmjager concept, and expansion of these and glider forces in event of war. Datum point. Without his support this generated, we wouldn’t be getting the maritime patrol capability for the navy, and as it is we will have to compete to get as many airframes as we can get in competition with Luftwaffe needs. However, key to this, in the event of hostilities indications are that Luftwaffe ground forces could expand to potentially division level forces for employment if he has his way. Datum Point. In such event these could be available to do the heavy lifting to support potential Kreigsmarine objectives. I will expand on this shortly.”
With this declaration Wever, could see the first clear spark of interest in the surrounding faces before continuing. “From this basis, we must assume war with Great Britain, and I hope we can all agree that this will require some form of commerce warfare. I won’t rehash the constant planning we are all well aware with regard to those options against the RN. Future options will depend on the coming conference and what assets we will get. My contention is that with the force imbalances facing our surface forces the best option will be balanced battlegroups as previously hypothesized,” nodding in particular to Raeder opposite. “We will have at least four battleships, Mackensen, Yorck, Scharnhorst and Gneisenau, whatever happens. Dependent on the conference outcome, I would like to suggest that given the surface forces construction resources and freedom, that we place two carriers as our next priority,” looking towards Doenitz, holding up one hand to forestall any immediate interjection.
“I say that not just as MFK head, but to outline some options for the Kreigsmarine. To put it in context, you all are aware of the recent friction between the RAF and Royal Navy, yes?” and upon receiving nods continued. “That is going to create problems not just for the MFK but all of us. We now have got some independence from the Luftwaffe and control of tasking for our aviation but have limited aircraft numbers. Look now at what the RN is doing now that it controls their Fleet Air Arm without that restriction. Now that they can get as many as they can they have set out a massive force increase of carriers. Firstly, there is the dominion support from Nieustralis. They have expanded to three their light carrier conversions and both the old battlecruiser hulls are being converted. Within two years there will be at least five operational carriers available to that dominion. As a part of Empire in event of war at possibly two or three at least will probably operate with the RN. Add to this the RN is copying their example with two further Hawkin’s conversions and the Old Tiger undergoing similar rebuilds. Add on top of this is the new classes being laid down, at least one or two. By 1940 there will be at least five to eight additional carriers available to employ against us, in addition to the existing battlefleet, a massive expansion, all undertaken before their first new battleship hull is laid down. This is the actuality we face, not just our force imbalance in battleships. Before this we could possibly have formed surface groups of possibly two battleships and a carrier to break into the Atlantic Sea lanes to attack commerce. The carrier allows us greater freedom of action, for reconnaissance to locate conveys, shoot down search planes, and attack picketing cruisers guarding the passages and prevents them shadowing and reporting our ships positions. Once a breakthrough is achieved it could withdraw, mission accomplished. This is a feasible role even with a limited carrier arm. With the change in the RN force structure and size, it is now easier for the RN to mass 2-3 carriers to overwhelm a singleton, hence from the purely MFK perspective it is best to employ two carriers in support of such a plan.
Doubling the carriers makes successful employment of such a battlegroup more likely, and furthermore makes it proportionally harder for the RN to mass sufficient decks to counter them. That is why if we get approval for part or all of Plan Z I recommend at least two carriers be the lead items of any construction queue for countering the RN growth and still give operational flexibility to our existing battlegroups.” Again, meeting the eyes of his audience, he could see frowns and nods, but obviously fully engaging their interest.
“But this also tenders us options if we get a less satisfactory outcome of the conference,” he continued. “Goering may block plans to expand aircraft number available, in which case we can offer,” holding up inverted fingers, “to ‘sacrifice’ resources in the way of a carrier as a bargain chip to gain other resources for the Kreigsmarine. Also, this can be presented as a sacrifice of armor not required for a battleship for a benefit for the Heer. All bargaining points to horse trade with the other services to get the best result for the Kreigsmarine. If we do get two carriers, then in event of war in reality there is no way that Goering can maintain a cap on MFK airframes, if we have a carrier to employ them on. That is just one option. We can cite steel savings to increase U-boat tonnage,” nodding to Doenitz, “if that is what this body decides. But what we need to prepare for now is how to best shape and use these logics to both prepare a case to maximize our resources against the other demands, and then how best structure what we get for best effect.”
Here, suddenly realizing how dry his mouth had become Wever, paused to take a drink from the glass of water before him, meeting Raeder’s look and asked, “Can I continue to add a few further matters which, while in effect are a digression, also impact on this and that I’d like to elaborate on?”
The Grossadmiral had leaned back contemplatively, before looking around the table, “No. actually this is intriguing, yes?” before continuing, “Please continue to lay out your thoughts, then I think it will be interesting to get some other responses from those gathered,” with a go-ahead gesture.
“OK. That covers part of the issue facing us. Secondly, I wish to elaborate on some operational thoughts which may also shape our force structure we build towards and employ in addition to resources constraints. We will contribute little to any land component of any operation against Russia or France. Looking at other theatres I’ve seen in passing the possible proposals for Plans M and G in the Mediterranean, and both are subject to pre-conditions out of our control. Plan G for Gibraltar involves Spanish involvement, which is unlikely after the current civil war ends. The Malta precondition involves Italian participation, again beyond our influence. The strategic proposal which I’ve tentatively called is Plan I, and my staff is handing out a rough synopsis now, for your perusal and consideration,” gesturing to his flag lieutenant seated against the wall, who then proceeded to start handing out papers from his dispatch case. “This is a rough draft, meant as a discussion document initially, which I was hoping to raise later in this conference,” meeting Raeder’s raised eyebrow opposite, before continuing with his nod.
“The key factor for this is that the preconditions for this plan to proceed are entirely ours to control, and if or how to proceed is not so heavily reliant on outside parties. The objective for this Plan I is for German forces to occupy Iceland and the Faroe Islands to simplify the Kreigsmarine anti-commerce operations in the North Atlantic.” This declaration was met with a quiet response of hushed interest around the table, as Wever continued. “I had originally intended to name it plan IF, after both the target islands, but for some reason Kommodore Boehm, quashed my suggestion,” he concluded, getting at least one bark of laughter and the desired murmur of amusement hoped for as he smiled slightly. “The key instigator for this to proceed would be occupation of Norway beforehand. I know that this has been integral to internal disagreements within the service, and I share worries that you yourself have raised admiral,” nodding to Raeder, “in that this runs the risk of very heavy losses to forces committed to such a task. This is what I mean by describing this plan having this precondition. (1) However, these will be at our discretion instigation wise. With this in mind it raises issues regarding construction options relevant to the post Plan Z resolution, which will be worth consideration now. I would welcome the opportunity to detail the implications of Plan I further, but this starts to include some operational detail which you may feel diverges from the intent of this meeting. For this I would just like to conclude with three other observations regarding resource priorities if I may?”
” Continue Admiral,” Raeder assented with a slight nod.
“Firstly, the U-boatwaffe’” with a brief nod again to Doenitz. “These will prove invaluable in any Atlantic option against British merchant shipping and in Plan I. If we lose out on construction priority, we can probably get a hundred hulls for the resources of one capital ship in terms of steel manufacture. Offering trade-offs to present such a saving to the Heer should be in our planning. Secondly in that event, not only does the size and endurance of those boats need to be increased, but some form of large resupply sub could be developed to further increase endurance. Next, if we lose resources or have limitations in place how do we get maximize any construction we get? In terms of simplicity getting more Auxiliary cruisers will impact our plans without restricting construction. An example is our training carrier Boelcke, which was a banana boat. These are a quick simple conversion that the other services don’t worry about. This extends to increasing the number of support vessels like the new Dithmarschen just completed. If we are to attack North Atlantic commerce then the more, we have the greater flexibility both surface and U-boat operations have. These being civilian construction, will have little impact resource wise on plans and provide greater operational reach. That also extends to other supply ships to be required. Lastly, is the point of intelligence. We will need Admiral Canaris and the Abwehr to devote resources to investigate Iceland, the Faroes and establish means to generate shipping intelligence for effective operational planning.” I threw this in as an adjunct as he knew Raeder distrusted the man.” I will finish now, and I hope those gathered here will consider some of the issues raised. If You wish sir, I am happy to expand more and actually have a great deal more on structure issues which extends to other ships and strategic points implicit with Plan I as presented, but that is supplemental to the original intent of this meeting. It could also be influential in other area’s such the smaller surface combatants like destroyers, and the size and employment of our naval infantry component.” With that Wever settled back into his chair in conclusion, just looking at the two senior figures opposite, and suddenly realizing a feeling a surprising degree of relief, as if a weight had been removed from his shoulders.
There followed a brief pause, as Raeder quickly flicked through a couple of pages placed in front of him, then looked up at Wever, then swept his gaze around the room. “Interesting, actually very interesting,” he commented, then obviously seeing officers engrossed in perusal of the tendered pages announced, “Gentlemen, I think we will take this opportunity while we are to together to pursue this further. To that end I think we shall have a 30-minute break and then perhaps here what other ‘datums’,” he said, holding up crooked fingers in parody of Wever’s early gesture, “that Admiral Wever may wish to elaborate on. Take this opportunity for a break and we will resume at 1430,” then standing and with a nod, leaving the room followed by Admiral Carls.
Taking advantage of the break, Wever left the room with several others to briefly freshen up, deferring approaches from several officers, before returning to resume the meeting shortly before both senior admirals reentered the room. Waiting while they returned, he had realized he felt quite lightened emotionally after the candid presentation earlier, realizing during the interlude how tense he had been given the problematic issues being faced. In his own mind it was in some ways a professional catharsis to offer one of the few strategic ways forward he could see for war with Britain. His own analysis still concluded that a positive outcome was unlikely, but his professionalism had concluded that in reality there were few viable paths forward and that this perhaps was the best available option.
With everyone seated once more, after a brief nod, Admiral Carls took the lead, looking surprisingly animated for the first time. “Why are you recommending this course for us at this time” he posed?
“It’s quite simple really. Given the logic of a war with the Royal Navy and an assumption of us not having anything like the necessary resources for this action, it’s an operational strategy that offers some hope of interrupting the Atlantic supply line, whilst also coopting a hopefully realistic level of Luftwaffe support in attempting this. That combined with the attraction that it’s progress and implementation will be to a far greater degree under our control, or rather the decision if to proceed I should say, is the far greatest attraction it offers to us as a service.”
“You said Hopefully,” interjected Raeder.
Pausing, Walther found himself kneading his brow, before going on. “Up until say 1935, I would have said almost certainly,” he said, “but in the last few years since the Royal Navy won its fight with the RAF, the situation is changing rapidly and it is less certain now,” again pausing. “We are all well aware of the traditional force imbalance with battleships, their dozen plus against at best up to four of our own. Since 1935 that same level of imbalance is now rapidly swinging against us in naval aviation. I’ve already mentioned the Nieustralis element but now we are starting to look at similar levels of imbalance in carrier forces. Until recently, at best the RN could have had available at best four or five carriers, spread across their Atlantic commitments. Facing that strength dispersed across the area, we could realistically have had a single carrier supporting a surface group, and faced a force imbalance that could still be manageable, but that’s no longer certain. It’s beginning to look like it’s possible that any lone carrier could face a mustered response of three or four to one. Meaning we have a greater need to have say two decks to be effective. Also, it means that no longer can we really consider two single carrier surface forces viable if we have them, which reduces our flexibility. The great appeal for us of Iceland is that it is essentially an unsinkable aircraft carrier if we hold it, but that still doesn’t mitigate what I said about employing our own carrier forces. Secondly, I will say that this will have to occur before Great Britain itself deploys forces to Iceland to preempt such an action by us. If the Tommie's beat us there, then I would suggest that the possibility of successfully implementing Plan I is highly unlikely in the face of an effective armed opposition. " (2)
“Having said that how we progress now will flow from this. If war comes Britain will plan to repeat the distant blockade strategy of the Great War if we don’t change the model of the conflict, with us again lacking the strength to force a direct confrontation. If we pursue the northern option and take Norway, that will force the Tommie’s to change their plan. But it will also free up our offensive options to attack their Atlantic trade. Plan I will go ahead depending on what the Norway occupation costs us. Too expensive in terms of ships and material and it will die stillborn,” he said, seeing acknowledging nods all around, “But that is a precondition on which we will both have direct impact upon, and the final call will essentially be ours, not the other services”.
He could tell this idea in particular met with general approval. “This is where Plan I can be a viable strategic role for the Kreigsmarine if the earlier pre-conditions are met. If we can base the new maritime reconnaissance aircraft there they could range as far as Newfoundland, forcing shipping far to the south and simplifying reconnaissance and access of both surface and submarine forces into the North Atlantic to attack their convoys. Iceland will be our base and it’s where we can realistically plan to hurt the Royal Navy with the forces in hand. We will need to be daring and bold, and the increasing aviation abilities of the Royal Navy can only serve to marginalize this to be honest. Placing aviation forces will require up to two hundred planes, more as the British strength grow, plus those on the Graf Zeppelin and a second carrier if we can get one. The carriers will have an important role to play enabling the freedom of action for our surface forces.”
At this point Carls interjected, “We can’t match the British fleet at sea!” Wever shook his head. “Our air power will even the odds. If the airfields at Bergen and Reykjavik are made operational as quickly as possible it will only serve our purposes. I want the British to try and take it back. It will tempt the British into placing their surface fleet in range of our aircraft. The pilots of the Kriegsmarine have trained for this, and if we involve Goering in the capture of the island with his Fallschirmjager, then the addition of further Luftwaffe aircraft to aid in this is also a given.”
“How certain are we that the Luftwaffe will cooperate,” posed Raeder? “This is where my links with the Luftwaffe have worked to our benefit. Through Kesselring, the production of the Ju190 is already approved. Presented to Goering as a transport carrying twice the number of paratroops as an Aunty Ju of greater range, he has adopted it as a project. That our own quota is now available as a long-range maritime patrol craft for the Kreigsmarine is entirely coincidental,” he finished with a slight smile, meeting a matching range of smirks and grins around the table. “Can we be certain of Luftwaffe support in such an endeavor? Realistically, a 100%? The answer is probably No, but I would still say there is a very high chance of their assistance. Even if this does not eventuate, we will still gain useful aviation assets for the Kreigsmarine. This long-range lift and reconnaissance capability can only be of benefit for us irrespective, more so should the Norway and Iceland options proceed.”
Seeing the groundswell of support of those present around the table he decided to expand further. “As I first proposed this was tendered as Plan IF, the F being for the Faroes. A further extension could include extend part of the operation to occupying the Faroe Islands. They’ll provide a stopping point and another unsinkable base if successful. But this will require us to do the work and prepare our own force structure for this eventuality. This requires a plan and the size of the service troops and special shipping that have been specially selected and trained. The advantages are that its population is far smaller than Iceland and only take a much smaller force to secure. A grass strip can be created on the Faroe Islands as quickly as it can be made. The engineers assigned and how we under take this task are and extra training are work we can begin preparing for now. We already have a possible location on Vagar Island identified, mainly because it is hard to attack from the sea, and it would be difficult for any British force to shell. The hope would be to have aircraft ready to operate from the island group in three to four days, particular if we can quietly conduct a covert check and survey beforehand.”
“That’s very fast” posed Carls, “What if that’s not possible?” “Then Bergen and Iceland will need to pick up the slack. they should slip through without difficulty. The advantage is that it will give us control over the Denmark and other Gaps controlling access to the Atlantic. Being 400km closer it means that the Luftwaffe tactical aircraft as well as ours can then be used against Britain as well. It places Glasgow and Derry within range of our Ju 88s from a completely new direction. At the moment any planes would have to fly right across England to hit targets on the west coast, but if they came in from the north, then we open up another angle of attack. There will be losses and it won’t be easy, but if it works, then the Northern Atlantic access will be controlled by us, forcing all enemy convoys to take a southern route.”
At this point Raeder leaned forward and spoke, “It all sounds promising, but what chances do you hold for long term victory?” Wever reeled at the question. “What do you mean?” “Closer, also means that the British can deploy more assets against there. Is it going to be retainable against the levels of force they might deploy,” he asked? “If the British try and blockade the island we’ll attack them from the air, but if they commit major forces, then probably not, No.” “Then why attempt this extension, isn’t it an over-extension, and as you’ve already indicated we are facing an uphill fight against a force imbalance?”.
Here Wever paused to best phrase his response. “Part of the plan is to find the enemy so the role of the reconnaissance planes in a forward location will be very important. Here we are trying to use airpower, our own MFK included, to counter the Royal Navy and improve our options. If we land in spring it will take the British time to muster forces to try and retake it, easily until summer in the face of a determined force, and we can attrite any efforts they attempt. That is only a short window of time and we could very easily retain it until the onset of winter makes it untenable for an immediate response. This would give us many months of easier Atlantic access to attack the convoy routes, whilst simplifying our own supply issues if it is only of a small size. Yes, it will be likely lost in a longer campaign, but while we hold it, it creates problems for the British. They can’t really proceed on an Iceland solution without clearing the Faroe’s first, all the time costing them resources exposure to our attacks.”
Meeting Raeder’s gaze directly he received a slight nod, before the Grand Admiral responded. “So, Iceland will be an unsinkable aircraft carrier. Assuming we have the precondition met to attempt its capture, and that the Luftwaffe complies, and we seize it quickly and unload your forces, but how will you hold it and get supplies to the Island?”
“Here is why I think we have to start making preparations now, even before we know how the upcoming conference pans out. Beyond the Carriers and larger warships discussed much of our more modest demands can be shaped. We are far more likely to get modest resource needs met even if my thoughts on Plan Z are accurate. For supply, I’d build extra destroyers for fast runs from Norway. Now with my aviation background I’ve studiously avoided any “unsolicited” ship advice,” glancing around faces and seeing acknowledgement of his point, “though I might soon make some carrier designs suggestions as soon as the Japan group return, but I can’t help but hear your professional shop talk about the 34 model destroyers and their bow issues in heavy seas. Here is where Kapitan Roehm,” nodding towards the Destroyer Type commander down the table, “may want to have input into his designs given the scenario we are considering. (3) Lose a bow gun or extend the bow to improve seakeeping for winter in the North Atlantic and increase the range. I won’t provide any useful input, but this is the kind of contingency planning which we can prepare for and requires his input,” getting an acknowledging nod from down the table. “Hopefully we can also fly in supplies with the new Ju190, though Iceland would remain out of range for a return journey for most of our planes, even from Norway. Even if the Faroe’s fall, Iceland will be a tougher nut to crack. I’ll toss out a couple of other considerations. Using bad weather fast auxiliaries should still be possible to keep supplies flowing. Should we look at adding an Auxiliaries Type Command, not only for that role but also Auxiliary cruisers and a resupply for surface forces in the raiding role, again because they are civilian and the other branches aren’t really going to care?” he posed, seeing thoughtful looks around the table. “So, these are some of the resource questions we have to ask and prepare for. Particularly if a land campaign is going to take the lion’s share of the Führer’s interest, and Germany’s military might.”
“The Kriegsmarine had little role or contribution in such an offensive in the west. Norway, Denmark will place demands on us initially but what forces are best? We may be served by aiming for Iceland even if it doesn’t eventuate. It’s only home to perhaps one hundred thousand people with no military. There is a sixty man force that trains on weekends; sort of a branch of the National Police, but that is all. I have no doubt that we can take Iceland, if we decide to proceed and the British don’t beat us there. Then you have to supply Iceland if it proceeds. Fast supply ships and the extra destroyers will have to be built to undertake the task, but they are useful in the preceding or other stages even if the plan isn't implemented. The supply challenge gets worse if the force imbalance in aviation gets greater as I’m beginning to worry about. The island is only home to one hundred and thousand people, though we will evacuate some of the women and children back to Norway. A fast auxiliary like the Altmark can make the trip from Bergen in just over two days using poor weather to mask movements. But increased air opposition means we have to increase force levels on the island and their support stationed there, conversely require an increased logistic support, a cyclical problem.” Here he paused, taking another sip of water, “but this increased threat means we will have to disperse or hide assets on the island as the opposition grows. We can probably keep air superiority for some time, but we’d need to disperse things like fuel supplies and support ships for U-boat operations. The Mine warfare type commander will probably want to Liaise with Admiral Doenitz and select the most secure anchorage to mine and defend, so that we can operate it as a forward base for convoy attacks.” At this point Wever realized he was beginning to repeat himself to a degree and chose to finish. “Sincerely gentlemen, this is what I mean we can think to address and take steps in forward planning, even if our resource needs are not going to be met in the planned conference.” Realizing he was finishing lamely, he simply swept a look around the tables faces, and then leant back in his chair, obviously finished for the moment.
A slight murmur of comment began, including a brief soft exchange between Carls and Raeder opposite, before being cut short when the Grand Admiral again spoke. “Say you pull all this off, and first you have to convince the Führer of your plan, but say you do, what then? Can we beat the British and the French.” Here Wever quite simply bit the bullet and declared, “How? We failed last time and now our leader wants to have another try, and quite simply we won’t have the forces to do it directly this time either. The French and British navies outnumber us considerably, so we have to define what constitutes a victory to us, and then present it to the Fuhrer as such. It simply comes down to how the Kreigsmarine can contribute as part of the wider ground war.” Here, nodding towards Doenitz, who was obviously looking unhappy at this comment, he continued “You have to believe in the Führer. He said that the British wouldn’t defend Poland, but we have to plan as if they do. We are at best incidental to a wider campaign in Western Europe,” said Wever. “It’s my belief that the resource allocation will reflect this, and really, I like the rest of you just don’t want our service reduced to irrelevance in its contribution to a wider war in this regard. We have to have achievable aims that contribute, otherwise the other arms will have complete control and start dictating on how we conduct our operations.” At this point Wever’s mouth snapped shut, realizing he was exposing himself to the forum of officers present. “We deal with the here and now, and job is to find ways to marginalize the Royal Navy as much as possible and hopefully force England out of the war. Can we call this victory, I don’t know? All we can do is to convince the Führer that our plans are viable, and broach the levels of support required to achieve aims in conjunction with his wider plans. Without something I fear for what our ultimate role may be if we can’t be seen as a viable contributor to any war effort.”
All this time Raeder had been observing, and now rubbed his chin before answering. “I can see merit in your analysis, and actually like the idea behind the plans. If the Royal Navy is tempted north and your planes are wait for them, then maybe it will work.” Looking to Carls then back down the table he directed, “We can work with this and develop it further, Agreed?” Seeing a general nodding of agreement, he addressed his deputy directly. “Gentlemen, I think it best we start arranging to develop these points further and send me the details when we can organize a coherent strategy regarding this and possible resource options,” before turning to address Wever directly. “As for you Admiral,” he said with a wintry smile, "I think you have just gained yourself a spot as an aide on my staff for the upcoming meetings,” glancing down the row of faces, “Along with Admiral… Doenitz, I think,” he finished. “Such forthrightness deserves its reward and I’m sure it will be an interesting experience for us all.” With that, he stood, closing the meeting and heading out, followed by his deputy, leaving the room in an animated hum of discussion and Wever, slightly shocked at the final response to his concepts, and wondering what was going to come now.
- Controlling Norway as strategic Objective had been recognized before 1915 with the RN adoption of a distant blockade policy. Occupation had long been suggested by strategists such as VAdm Wegener as part of possible strategic plans during the post war period and the importance of ice-free transit of iron ore for German increased its importance. Well aware of its Strategic importance its capture of ports would create gaps in the blockade of Germany and give access to the Atlantic allowing Germany more effective use of its sea power. Initially in balance Raeder saw advantages in having Norway remain neutral allowed the safe passage for merchant vessels transporting ore via Norwegian coastal waters to Germany. In addition, there was the perception (accurate as it occurred) that any Kreigsmarine operation to invade Norway would likely involve very significant losses to any Kreigsmarine force involved. With events like the Altmark incident and planned invasion of Denmark would lead to the invasion proceeding in 1940.
- RN occupation of Iceland May 1940
- ITTL as a result of this meeting there would be several modified destroyer designs constructed by the Kreigsmarine. Featuring suppression of the super-firing 5-inch and later 5.9inch gun position in the bow, to lengthen the forecastle and reduce weight forward. These changes offered considerably improved seakeeping and greatly increased range.
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