Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[nickmn]

My expectation is the Turks will let German forces vacate to the old international zone, and tell the Allies it is there job to flush the Axis out.

That won't be particularly smart of them . They are literally down , a boot on their neck and about to beg for mercy in order to avoid very large territorial losses . The last thing they would want would be to lead the allies to push for extreme demands out of spite ...

 

[Khan Doomy]

They have an easy excuse. The Allies demanded demobilization. They simply do not have the forces , by allied request, to intern German formations in Anatolia. Finland was permitted to keep its army on war footing which made possible the Lapland War.

 

[Xenophonte]

Re Cairo Armistice: The Assyrians and/or any possible 'National Home' for them isn't mentioned at all.
Also, per the Armistice terms, the Turks should allow and facilitate any and all movement through their territory that the Allies might need for deploy their troops against the Germans ones...

The Allies till conclusion of the hostilities with the Axis nations, to have full access to Turkish territory and use of Turkish ports and railroads as they deem necessary to pursue operations against the Axis.

IMO, this clause, aside that could imply the occupation of more strategically key territory for Turkey, it would also, make any German resistance/holdout attempts, would turn them untenable or temporals at best...

 

[Whiteshore]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a lot of the European Axis minor powers scrambling almost immediately after the Turkish ceasefire. There will probably be some coups, maybe even concurrent coups as different groups try to take advantage at the same time. Because it’s becoming more apparent every day that the end in nigh. It’s just a question of who you surrender to and what it’ll cost you.

With my idea of an Iron Guard Romania for a few months in 1944 after Germany foil a Romanian attempt at surrender being basically a Romanian equivalent to the Arrow Cross Party's Government of National Unity.

 

[Vaeius]

Re Cairo Armistice: The Assyrians and/or any possible 'National Home' for them isn't mentioned at all.

To be fair, any Assyrian state likely wouldn't come from any Turkish territory so I don't think there'd be any real reason to mention it. The most feasible areas are limited to Iraq around Mosul/Nineveh, the so called 'Assyrian triangle' like this which was a proposal during/after ww1. Which is actually what I partially based the proposed Assyria in my maps from, albeit that one was a good bit larger than what was proposed here.

For fun there's also this map that was proposed by the Assyrian delegation to the Paris Peace conference in 1919, which... is quite larger than even what I proposed and not something I'd call... practical for a few reasons.

Even if the Assyrians don't come out of this with full statehood, I could see some sort of special-autonomous region nominally part of Iraq or some sort of UN territory... Maybe it could achieve full independence in the future after their population had a chance to grow?

 

[Khan Doomy]

Iraq might be federalized anyway. Surprisingly that might make it easier for the Hashemites to hold on to power as powerbrokers. Especially if the army is also federalized.

 

[Quinkana]

Iraq might be federalized anyway. Surprisingly that might make it easier for the Hashemites to hold on to power as powerbrokers. Especially if the army is also federalized.

Tbf I think it's a possibility, and if the Assyrians could be the one who mediates between the Sunnis and Shiites in politics with the Hashemite king helping them along I could see it working. Assyria popping up would still be quite interesting tho, although I could see it being 'a nation in a nation' with a lot of Assyrians immigrating to the Assyrian triangle.

 

[Iskandar Khayon]

I imagine that the Turks are going to receive some severe consequences for their actions in the war. Not only have they backed the losing side for the second time in a row, they've committed bucketloads of war crimes against their foes (primarily the Greeks and Armenians) again for the second time in a row. Not good, not good at all. Turkey is going to be in for a rough time, both internally and externally, for the foreseeable future.

 

[Dunois]

I imagine that the Turks are going to receive some severe consequences for their actions in the war. Not only have they backed the losing side for the second time in a row, they've committed bucketloads of war crimes against their foes (primarily the Greeks and Armenians) again for the second time in a row. Not good, not good at all. Turkey is going to be in for a rough time, both internally and externally, for the foreseeable future.

The possible Turkish crimes in occupied Ionia, Constantinople and Armenia haven't be covered in much details so far.
@Lascaris what happened in the occupied territories between 1941 and now? We know that many people fled as refugees to Smyrna. But did the Greek army uncover potential crimes against humanity when they liberated the area? Were there death marches to the interior of Anatolia?

I really hope Turkey doesn't get off easily TTL. Given their geographical position and the at times rather interesting nature of Turkish nationalism OTL (Stuff like the sun language theory etc). Things could become very weird post war.

 

[Khan Doomy]

I would caution that even in the heights of Kemalism (or Ataturkism based on your political POV) Sun theory etc were really just elite constructions with small support. The dominant political ideology was essentially "orthodox" Rumelian CUP ideology. Sun Theory was a Rumelian attempt to incorporate Anatolia but largely broke itself on the islamic reality of Anatolia.

 

[Andreas]

Constantinople and Eastern Thrace by the time of the armistice, are under Turkish, aren't they?
I wonder why the Allies did not demand for the return of the latter to Greece and the delivery of the former to Allied control.
Furthermore, there is no provision for the Turkish stance towards the German and Bulgarian forces at the same area. Considering the experience from the Italian armistice, one would expect a better preparation for the Turkish one.

 

[Khan Doomy]

The Turks are required to evacuate their troops from those areas as per the demobilization term. It is pretty clear the Allies will enter Turkish territory to pursue the war. Turkey essentially in the state of Greece 1915-1916.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Even if the Assyrians don't come out of this with full statehood, I could see some sort of special-autonomous region nominally part of Iraq or some sort of UN territory... Maybe it could achieve full independence in the future after their population had a chance to grow?

I feel bad for whatever group of diplomats has to sort out the mess of centuries old grudges, overlapping claims, and mutually exclusive British promises that region has become. I just hope a resolution is reached. The worse outcome for the area would be kicking the can 10 years down the road for an eventual plebiscite. But a stable safe Assyria in any form could draw in lots of Christian groups scattered around the Middle East.

Iraq might be federalized anyway. Surprisingly that might make it easier for the Hashemites to hold on to power as powerbrokers. Especially if the army is also federalized.

I have to admit a federalized Hashemite kingdom is something I hadn’t thought of. The problem would be getting the various parties to buy in but I could see it working well if they get over that speed bump.

I imagine that the Turks are going to receive some severe consequences for their actions in the war. Not only have they backed the losing side for the second time in a row, they've committed bucketloads of war crimes against their foes (primarily the Greeks and Armenians) again for the second time in a row. Not good, not good at all. Turkey is going to be in for a rough time, both internally and externally, for the foreseeable future.

We shouldn’t ignore the Kurds either. They were specifically mentioned in the prison labor segment if I remember correctly. And Circassians.

I really hope Turkey doesn't get off easily TTL

Easily is a relative term. Losing something like over 100,000 square miles of territory (Kurdistan is a lotta land don’t forget), millions of tax payers, billions in potential resources in the lost territory, having to pay reparations and have their industrial equipment taken, and possibly losing access to the straits depending what the peace deal eventually is. And I’m sure I’m forgetting a few thing. It’s not unconditional surrender but it’ll be damn close.

The real question is wether their will be any war crime trials. And the sad reality is there probably won’t be. Neither the Wallies or the Soviets will see it as a priority while they’re both jockeying for position post war. It would gets points with peoples who’s post war allegiances are already decided, and piss off the military leadership in what is likely a militarily run Turkey. Their might be a few token sacrifices but their won’t me any wide spread trials unless I’m completely wrong about the post war political stances of the major powers.

 

[Lascaris]

The possible Turkish crimes in occupied Ionia, Constantinople and Armenia haven't be covered in much details so far.
@Lascaris what happened in the occupied territories between 1941 and now? We know that many people fled as refugees to Smyrna. But did the Greek army uncover potential crimes against humanity when they liberated the area? Were there death marches to the interior of Anatolia?

I really hope Turkey doesn't get off easily TTL. Given their geographical position and the at times rather interesting nature of Turkish nationalism OTL (Stuff like the sun language theory etc). Things could become very weird post war.

Admittedly I wasn't much inclined to get into the uhm more gory details, if anything to the extend that it could well invite flamewars. So...

First the good news. The TTL Turkey of 1941-44 is NOT the Ottoman Empire of the three pashas. Projecting their behavior in 1914-18 (the 1914 mind you is not a typo) to Turkey in general would be both wrong and I think unfair. Further to this the TTL Greek-Turkish war of 1919-21 has been a fair bit cleaner, just on account of August-September 1922 not happening and that applies to both sides.

Now the bad news. This is Kemalist Turkey. Which at the time was to be blunt a dictatorship. In OTL 1919-20 Karabekir's troops were anything but shy massacring Armenians, the bulk of the suffering of Pontic Greeks was in 1919-22, prisoners of war and Anatolian Greek hostages were horribly maltreated and large numbers apparently killed outright or died in captivity. Add to this massacres culminating in the burning of Smyrna. to what degree blame for these can be put to Kemal? One notes he made Topal Osman guard commander of the Grand National Assembly and Nureddin commander in Smyrna. Then in 1937-38 Kemalist government was anything but shy about massacring and deporting thousands of civilians during the Dersim rebellion (massacre is how a certain T. Erdoghan has described it) including allegedly the use of poison gas. And come 1942, now under Inonu, was again anything but shy to target the minorities with the Varlik Vergisi and send thousands to labor battalions.

So for a rough list of notes.

• There has been no Turkish Jasenovak or extermination camps.
• The Jewish population of Thrace and Constantinople was not protected from the Germans and shipped to Poland. The Jewish population in Anatolia was protected though.
• Labour battalions have already been mentioned and are in widespread use.
• The Turkish army was anything but shy to strip off anything useful from occupied areas and tax them, literally, to death.
• Massacres and maltreatment of civilians to secure the occupation and in reprisal for partisan activity are widespread.

Overall the Turkish occupation zone excluding Constantinople had ~1.815,000 million people in 1940. About a third fled ahead of the Turkish army (it would be more but in Thrace the civilians had nowhere to flee). About 269,000 died from all causes (starvation, executions, massacres, etc). About 100,000 Greeks and Armenians died in Constantinople which was particularly vulnerable to starvation.

EDIT allegedly striken through. The use of poison gas and for that matter burning people alive was reported by Ihsan Sabri Çağlayangil in his memoirs. Given he was foreign minister of Turkey and acting president in 1980...

 

[Khan Doomy]

Admittedly I wasn't much inclined to get into the uhm more gory details, if anything to the extend that it could well invite flamewars. So...

First the good news. The TTL Turkey of 1941-44 is NOT the Ottoman Empire of the three pashas. Projecting their behavior in 1914-18 (the 1914 mind you is not a typo) to Turkey in general would be both wrong and I think unfair. Further to this the TTL Greek-Turkish war of 1919-21 has been a fair bit cleaner, just on account of August-September 1922 not happening and that applies to both sides.

Now the bad news. This is Kemalist Turkey. Which at the time was to be blunt a dictatorship. In OTL 1919-20 Karabekir's troops were anything but shy massacring Armenians, the bulk of the suffering of Pontic Greeks was in 1919-22, prisoners of war and Anatolian Greek hostages were horribly maltreated and large numbers apparently killed outright or died in captivity. Add to this massacres culminating in the burning of Smyrna. to what degree blame for these can be put to Kemal? One notes he made Topal Osman guard commander of the Grand National Assembly and Nureddin commander in Smyrna. Then in 1937-38 Kemalist government was anything but shy about massacring and deporting thousands of civilians during the Dersim rebellion (massacre is how a certain T. Erdoghan has described it) including allegedly the use of poison gas. And come 1942, now under Inonu, was again anything but shy to target the minorities with the Varlik Vergisi and send thousands to labor battalions.

So for a rough list of notes.

• There has been no Turkish Jasenovak or extermination camps.
• The Jewish population of Thrace and Constantinople was not protected from the Germans and shipped to Poland. The Jewish population in Anatolia was protected though.
• Labour battalions have already been mentioned and are in widespread use.
• The Turkish army was anything but shy to strip off anything useful from occupied areas and tax them, literally, to death.
• Massacres and maltreatment of civilians to secure the occupation and in reprisal for partisan activity are widespread.

Overall the Turkish occupation zone excluding Constantinople had ~1.815,000 million people in 1940. About a third fled ahead of the Turkish army (it would be more but in Thrace the civilians had nowhere to flee). About 269,000 died from all causes (starvation, executions, massacres, etc). About 100,000 Greeks and Armenians died in Constantinople which was particularly vulnerable to starvation.

I think that this estaimate is logical. My expectation is you will get the usual trials for crimes of aggression and against peace (Peker, Chakmak) , probably a holocaust trial for the Istanbul Jews (again Peker, Chakmak and maybe some other officers) , and then maybe some trials of local officers etc. You are not going to get a destruction of the Turkish officers corps, or total lustration of the Turkish State apparatus.

 

[Lascaris]

One thing to note is that Pontic Muslims had and have a much better relationship with Pontic Christians which is why certain Turkish political forces still see them with suspicion.

How visible was the existence of Pontic Muslims, in particular ones the might be perceived as possibly Greek leaning in the Greek and Turkish public discourse of the time? Some for certain I have books dating to before 1922 mentioning their existence (Kontogiannis geography of Asia Minor for example) along with noting that some of the group like the Ophites were devout Muslims. For someone to give these groups the optiom to voluntarily migrate someone in the Greek or Turkish political/ruling class. Now who that could be?

This is my fear in general for any Greek speaking Muslims in Turkey when this is over. People like to have an other to blame when they lose a war. Particularly if that other is in anyway related to their enemy in said war. Anyone who could be considered as fraternizing with the enemy is going to be viewed with suspicion at best, and as an outright traitor at worst. So I could see Greek Muslim speakers in the Aegean being stuck between a rock and a hard place. Plus picking up sticks and moving for the second time in ~30 years isn’t gonna be super attractive to the recent arrivals no matter how much they might not want to be in Greece. So I feel like more people than you think might stick around. Especially anyone who didn’t really want to participate in population exchange in the 20’s.

Turcocretans are by this point too strongly nationalistic and with too much relatively recent bad blood to stay if their areas got annexed. Even if they wanted too chances are the Greeks would want them expelled.

Im pretty sure Soviets already kicked their Greeks out of Crimea ITTL, so I could see them doing the same to any Greek Muslims that are in their territory, wherever the border ends up being. It’s not a religious issue for them but a cultural one.

The Greek operation of NKVD happened on schedule. Did the 1942 deportations actually happen? Stalin was paranoid but TTL Greece is an active alive and Soviet Greeks particularly in the Caucasus have excellent reason to be loyal. Of course this opens the question of the 1944 and 1949 deportations. It looks to me that deporting the Greeks to Greece as opposed to Central Asia is reasonable to expect TTL. Ofter allin OTL Stalin dis let 20,000 leave fpr Greece in 1938.

By the ostensibly atheist Soviets? We’ve discussed before how they’re likely to just view the Laz as they would Georgians. Why would that change for Greek speakers who they see as untrustworthy.

This depends on whether the Soviets want to define them as Greeks for their own purposes or not. Otherwise Atheist or not I can hardly believe they are blind the the difference, It's like not knowing the difference between Irish Catholics and Oragemen...

It might be less cut an dry for Turkey but I can’t see anyone who speaks Greek being warmly welcomed regardless of their religion.

It does depend on the group. Turkocretans frex have impeccable nationalist credential (as Muslims not so much, at least while in Crete). Pontic groups like the Ophites have impeccable Muslim hence Turkish credentials. Other Muslim Pontians particularly recent sometimes less than voluntary conversions to Ismam? Rather less so and such things have a way of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies

If Greece cannot get Cannakkale, then it should definitely push for Sokia/Soke (includes Kusadasi, Didim), Halikarnassos/Bodrum +Milas/Miletos and the Rest of Mugla province.

Sokia having a Greek majority is a logical goal. The rest of Aidin and Mugla vilayets? There will be nationalistic reasons, anciet Miletus, Halicarnassus and the likes. The chrome mines are nice. But the actual strategic gain from annexing or expelling a quarter million people is... little.

The Usak plateau (Buldan-Esme- Usak-Banaz) area is really indifferent other than it's strategic purposes, (and I'm not sure if it's a curse rather than a benefit, yes there might be some pretty good heights to possess, but won't Greece overextend itself into the central Anatolian plateau, virtually be surrounded by everywhere (260+ degrees), it is also a territory without much economic significance, in the depths of Anatolia and most importantly without even a single Greek person.

It's 1945. The Greeks have no reason to want any territory for economic reasons. Lebensraum is horribly out of fashion... and was never in fashion in Greek political discourse in the first place.

Also I'm not entirely sure about the soil in and around Usak, but isn't it dry?

LIke really dry, like a steppe/savanna, so I'm not sure that agriculture can be an important economic activity in the area, so you can forget about relocating Greek farmers there, (unless they wanna grow levander or smth)...

Random pic east of Usak... Google street view is your friend. Could be anywhere in mainland Greece. Although again the economics are... of limited impact here.

So, to visualize some of the argument going back and forth over borders, I have decided to create yet another map! Showing what I see as the most reasonable areas of expansion for Greece.

View attachment 856243

In dark blue, are areas that I think are the likeliest areas for Greece to expand.

Thanks for the multiple maps first of all/

The Dodecanese and Rhodes are almost a given at this point, considering the demographics there and the fact that Greek troops have been on the ground there since just about the start of the war. Of everything on the table it's the 'easiest' to give to Greece considering they already kinda have it except on paper.

The Dodecanese is pretty much a given yes. It's an Italian colony with an overwhelming Greek majority and there isn't even Turkey to consider TTL. Besides the Greeks hold it since November 1940...

The Dardanelles/Canakkale Area, as part of the old League Mandate, it was exempted from the population exchange, and by Lascaris's numbers has the largest numbers of Greeks, at least before the war, in areas of potential expansion. Leaving the most strategically important areas to a new UN territory, it would minimize the risk of having an enclave in the back of Asiatic Greece. Leaving areas for International bases. I could also see some sort of agreement for nominal Greek administrative and political control over the region, in exchange for demilitarization and nominal international military control over the region+Gallipoli.

The Soviets are going to have kittens for any short of Greek control. It would put both sides of the straits under Greece after all. That it has, or had in 1941 40,000+ Greeks matter little. After all by the same token it has nearly 5 times as many Turks but I don't see anyone suggesting they return to actual Turkish administration...

The former Italian Mandate of Caria, also exempted from the population exchange on paper. There are still Greeks there, or were before the war, most seem to have fled before the Italians handed it over, but that was not terribly long ago, I wouldn't be surprised if a more than a few might be willing to go back. Politically this region is probably the least... headache inducing to give to Greece off of Turkey itself for the western allies. It's far from the straights so the Soviets can't really complain, compared to anywhere else it's relatively sparsely populated and has a good number of hills/mountains/rough terrain to work with and has/had a local population to serve as a bit of a fig-leaf.

Short off. Again it's nearly 80% Turkish. Even when counted together with the Dodecanese, which is not in the Greeks interest to claim, it still has a solid Turkish majority. Soo what are the Greeks gaining from claiming the whole lot? Security for the islands at the cost of extending their land frontier? Historical/nationalist goals like controlling Bodrum? Now mind you controlling parts of territory may be more practical.

In lighter blue are areas that I think are the most flexible, and most-likely to be considered in terms of 'defensive annexations' to safeguard other territory. Again, relatively sparsely populated territory with varying types of rough/impassible terrain, that would add some extra 'girth' and strategic depth. All relatively minor in terms of territory in the grand scheme of things. With the exception of areas on the Marmara, which is likely to see the most variability as the area with the most political tension and largest population of Turks.

There is also some religious and historical basis at least along the southern Anatolian coast for Greek expansion out to Myra, again it's rough terrain and comparatively sparsely populated.

Letting go of Constantinople was a big ask, I think these regions and the darker blue are the ones likeliest to serve as 'carrots' for the Greek government and politicians.

In lightest blue are areas that I don't think Greece would reasonably expect to gain but might put a token effort into asking about, this region could feasibly be occupied by international forces for a period post-war, maybe under the UN mandate, maybe under some other state-let, ala the Saarland, but would likely remain Turkish in the long-term.

I don't see the Greeks asking for territory just for territory's shake. There must be a reason, military or population wise. The Greek demands i the 1919 peace conference may offer a logical starting point here.

Others.

I think the British might have had to cough up Cyprus in exchange for Greece letting go of Constantinople, again they must have offered the Greeks some sizable concessions, generally I think that's vis-a-vis Turkey for the aforementioned reasons but Cyprus is a question in it's own right. Though how well they might keep to such an agreement is something that might cause issues down the line. Getting the British to cough up territory, at least until decolonization proper, is a bit like pulling teeth isn't it?

There was quite a bit of support in the British foreign office for giving Cyprus to Greece at the time actually. The British TTL have to be giving something to Cyprus TTL even if it's just more extensive self-government, as noted before Cyprus still has uninterrupted elections and a legislative assembly TTL which is a big difference from OTL.

 

[Lascaris]

We finally reached this point. Very quick decision making, but for the best. Now it is clear to all a Kurdish state is going to be created. Will be interesting to see reactions.

Is it? It took about 3 weeks between the Soviets breaking the front in the east and the armistice. In the meantime the Greeks also broke the front and drove to the sea of Marmara. At the time of the armistice they are in front of Bursa and Kutahya while the Turkish army has taken over 150,000 casualties, two thirds of it from the Soviets. If Ismet delayed much more his bargaining position would be getting much worse.

Well, talk about timing. Quite the consequential update at that!


It is the better flag in my humble opinion, any chance it gets kept as the standard following the war?

Will Italy be a republic after the war?

Gonna be honest, that's really quite funny. I do wonder how the German/Bulgarian forces handle the Cairo armistice and how long the straights will remain in axis hands. Plus how that might effect the Yalta conference in a year's time. If there will be a Yalta conference actually.

That would be spoilers, wait for the next installment.

Oh no... what a... tragedy... Anyway, that's probably a rather good thing for Italy at large, to make a clear change in the old/new government going into the final phases of the war and the final peace. A new government of democratic reformists liberating the north of the country from the Nazi's isn't a terrible base to build something new from. I've got a feeling Italy might walk away from ww2 a little better off than otl here.

Balbo's influence and I think he's likely to have some influence should have at least a few side effects... a few of them odd. Like the Italian navy insisting on getting aircraft because the air force are evil Balboists they can't have all aircraft!

They're not dumb that's for sure. Though likely a little, a lot, later than many of the new government might have liked. I'm not sure what Ismet got here that was exploiting allied discord though?

I wonder how the Germans/Bulgarians will react, they'll likely at least have time enough to seize the straights and the Turkish areas in Europe, which will likely be a pain to push past, though more that that.... I wonder if the Turks took any lessons to heart after the Italians came to terms.

They are not in danger of the Germans invading or occupying Anatolia that's for sure...

Yep, that’s a Hitler decision if I ever saw one lmao. We’re obviously losing and there was just a regime change in our ally? It’s fiiiiinnnnneeee. That said Italy and particularly Ukraine are the most pressing matters at hand.

Hey, not my fault Hitler worshiped Kemal and the Turkish nationalist movement. Ihrig's Ataturk in the Nazi imagination makes for some interesting reading. And if the Turks played on that for all its worth, Karabekir was the undefeated Kemal lieutenant after all... why good for them.

Damn, the Greeks got all the way to Afyon before the ceasefire. I hadn’t realized they got that far inland. And the Soviets got to Trabzon. That’s a lot of collective bargaining power even if you can play the Soviets and Wallies of each other.

By the time of the armistice things were going very much downhill from the Turkish point of view. Their army was being in full retreat on all three fronts and bleeding very badly. If exhaustion ad logistical constraints did not set in...

Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get something like the Arrow Cross Party Coup in Hungary IOTL here in either Romania or Bulgaria.

Hungary got already occupied by the Germans, Bulgaria for now is under the firm grip of the germanophile regency council, Romania... Codreanu is still alive there...

İnterestingly the Turkish army is to demobilize but not disband.

Oh you've noticed.

Especially as the Germans can always have the Iron Guard in Romania proclaim a National Legionary State if the government looks for a way out.

Would Codreanu work with the Germans? The man was rabidly nationalistic and the Germans have forced both Vienna awards on Romania. Then many rabid nationalists around Europe ended as collaborators putting the supposed Soviet threat first so I'd be hardly surprised.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a lot of the European Axis minor powers scrambling almost immediately after the Turkish ceasefire. There will probably be some coups, maybe even concurrent coups as different groups try to take advantage at the same time. Because it’s becoming more apparent every day that the end in nigh. It’s just a question of who you surrender to and what it’ll cost you.

In Romania even Antonescu was for an armistice but too hidebound to actually directly push for one. In Bulgaria the pro-Germans have a firmer grip at the moment...

My expectation is the Turks will let German forces vacate to the old international zone, and tell the Allies it is there job to flush the Axis out.

Most German units are deep in the east and in contact with the enemy...

Re Cairo Armistice: The Assyrians and/or any possible 'National Home' for them isn't mentioned at all.

No Assyrians left in Turkey in 1940...

Also, per the Armistice terms, the Turks should allow and facilitate any and all movement through their territory that the Allies might need for deploy their troops against the Germans ones...

IMO, this clause, aside that could imply the occupation of more strategically key territory for Turkey, it would also, make any German resistance/holdout attempts, would turn them untenable or temporals at best...

The Allies will be moving through and have some troops on the ground. One reason they don't occupy the place which is also one reason for an armistice instead of an unconditional surrender is they'd need over half a million men for occupation...

Even if the Assyrians don't come out of this with full statehood, I could see some sort of special-autonomous region nominally part of Iraq or some sort of UN territory... Maybe it could achieve full independence in the future after their population had a chance to grow?

That particular rooster is likely coming home in the not too distant future and the British have made promises and given armies to Kurds, Assyrians and Hashemites. And Israelis for that matter. Who deals with whom here?

Iraq might be federalized anyway. Surprisingly that might make it easier for the Hashemites to hold on to power as powerbrokers. Especially if the army is also federalized.

The Kurds at the moment are too strong to accept anything less than a unitary Kurdish state covering everything outside Iranian Kurdistan. So the question is more how the Hashemites and Assyrians deal with that and each other. Which ultimately ends to whether Abdullah makes a deal accepting the loss of Iraqi Kurdistan or sends the Legion north to contest that. He might well do either I'd think.

Constantinople and Eastern Thrace by the time of the armistice, are under Turkish, aren't they?
I wonder why the Allies did not demand for the return of the latter to Greece and the delivery of the former to Allied control.

They do, that's the part about full movement...

Furthermore, there is no provision for the Turkish stance towards the German and Bulgarian forces at the same area. Considering the experience from the Italian armistice, one would expect a better preparation for the Turkish one.

The Turks were in a bit of a hurry here...

I feel bad for whatever group of diplomats has to sort out the mess of centuries old grudges, overlapping claims, and mutually exclusive British promises that region has become. I just hope a resolution is reached. The worse outcome for the area would be kicking the can 10 years down the road for an eventual plebiscite. But a stable safe Assyria in any form could draw in lots of Christian groups scattered around the Middle East.

Of course it was hated by both Kurds and Arabs with the feelings reciprocated... not without reason given the Kurdish role in the genocide.

I have to admit a federalized Hashemite kingdom is something I hadn’t thought of. The problem would be getting the various parties to buy in but I could see it working well if they get over that speed bump.

The Kurds got more men with guns at the moment than Hashemites or Assyrians. Perhaps not as well trained and organized but that's a different question...

The real question is wether their will be any war crime trials. And the sad reality is there probably won’t be. Neither the Wallies or the Soviets will see it as a priority while they’re both jockeying for position post war. It would gets points with peoples who’s post war allegiances are already decided, and piss off the military leadership in what is likely a militarily run Turkey. Their might be a few token sacrifices but their won’t me any wide spread trials unless I’m completely wrong about the post war political stances of the major powers.

There was a question what Ismet got at Cairo... that the Turkish army has been demobilized not dismantled...

 

[Gokbay]

Hey, not my fault Hitler worshiped Kemal and the Turkish nationalist movement.

Would he have that to the same degree in this timeline where the Turkish Nationalist Movement failed to achieve (at least partially) its goals?

 

[Khan Doomy]

Would he have that to the same degree in this timeline where the Turkish Nationalist Movement failed to achieve (at least partially) its goals?

Well did it partially? Territorially sure. That said, Turkey still successfully got rid of "troublesome" minorities, and still avoided being a limited sovereignty state (ala Sevres Ottoman Empire). These are still significant achievements (compare Hungary ie). So I think Ataturk still has a lot of popularity among anti-imperialists and opponents of the Versailles system (including Nazis). Remember is the eyes of Indians Muslim and Hindu, Arab nationalists etc, the anatolian Greeks and Armenians were not communities with as much a stake in Anatolia as Turks but instead seen as imperialist tools and foreign bodies in Asia.

 

[Khan Doomy]

Aha l did not notice Karabekir fell for it and became PM.