POD: 1986 - Gorbachev's plane disappears over Atlantic returning from Reykjavik Summit

AceOfSpades

Following the historic, yet failed nuclear disarmament talks between Reagan and Gorbachev, contact is lost with the Soviet delegation's plane over the Atlantic. Suddenly finding themselves leaderless, the Politburo form an emergency leadership committee to take the reins. Unfortunately, the hardliners take this opportunity to seize control, resulting a political domino effect that leads to conflict with the West.



Basically, I'm looking for a good POD that incite a Soviet invasion in 1986. If someone has a better scenario, I would love to hear it.

Also, yes. I get that WW3 scenarios are a dime a dozen.
 

Lalli

Would even hardliners to be willingful go to devastating WW3 if they are not sure what there has happened?
 

pjmidd

Unless they think that the plane was shot down by the Americans, all it will do is roll back things in the USSR. That would take all their time and effort. To kick off a war in this period would need something like an exercise ( by either side ) being mistaken as preparation for the real thing and a preemptive attack launched ie WW3 by mistake.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
An author of dubious quality that I am somewhat acquainted with has used the same POD (though in 1990) for several of his TLs. It is a weak POD and he should have known better.
 

fasquardon

AceOfSpades said:
Following the historic, yet failed nuclear disarmament talks between Reagan and Gorbachev, contact is lost with the Soviet delegation's plane over the Atlantic. Suddenly finding themselves leaderless, the Politburo form an emergency leadership committee to take the reins. Unfortunately, the hardliners take this opportunity to seize control, resulting a political domino effect that leads to conflict with the West.



Basically, I'm looking for a good POD that incite a Soviet invasion in 1986. If someone has a better scenario, I would love to hear it.

Also, yes. I get that WW3 scenarios are a dime a dozen.
Click to expand...

No one in the Soviet Union was going to commit mass suicide for the memory of Gorbachev. Least of all the Hardliners in 1986.

Also, it's worth noting that most hardliners in the Soviet Union were pro-reform (indeed Gorbachev was a considered hardliner himself at this point) the only arguments were about details, rather than about whether things should change. Further, while the hardliners were generally those who were more suspicious of the West and believed the USSR needed a big stick to hand, I've never read about a single one of them advocating starting a war with the West.

The only way to get the Soviets to start WW3 is through accident or because things have gotten so bad that they are utterly convinced that if they don't strike first the US will hit them within the next 30 minutes and letting the balloon go up is the best way to save as many Soviet citizens as possible.

(I'd say the same is true of getting the US to start WW3 also, at least after the Cuban Missile crisis was done.)

fasquardon
 

CaliGuy

Banned
fasquardon said:
No one in the Soviet Union was going to commit mass suicide for the memory of Gorbachev. Least of all the Hardliners in 1986.

Also, it's worth noting that most hardliners in the Soviet Union were pro-reform (indeed Gorbachev was a considered hardliner himself at this point) the only arguments were about details, rather than about whether things should change. Further, while the hardliners were generally those who were more suspicious of the West and believed the USSR needed a big stick to hand, I've never read about a single one of them advocating starting a war with the West.

The only way to get the Soviets to start WW3 is through accident or because things have gotten so bad that they are utterly convinced that if they don't strike first the US will hit them within the next 30 minutes and letting the balloon go up is the best way to save as many Soviet citizens as possible.

(I'd say the same is true of getting the US to start WW3 also, at least after the Cuban Missile crisis was done.)

fasquardon
Click to expand...
Were the other Soviet hard-liners more in favor of a Deng-in-China style reform?
 

fasquardon

saluto said:
Economic but not political reform
Click to expand...

In that case, most hardliners favoured a "Deng style" approach. They did argue about which economic reforms to do and when they should be done.

Advocating much of a role for markets, even things like farmer's markets, was more of a minority position.

Often they also favored organizational changes as well, like Andropov's anti-corruption campaign. The ideas ranged from good to "rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic".

fasquardon
 
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