Possible to defeat Germany in 1944?

psteinx

Given a general POD after January 1, 1944 for military actions (i.e. no launching D-Day in '43), BUT, allowing some of the earlier planning to be altered, is there a fairly realistic scenario for the military defeat of Germany before 12/31/1944?

I want to exclude Soviet heroics - the key alterations should be on the Western side. While I'm excluding a '43 D-Day, I'm open to at least some of the planning/organization that went on in '43 or earlier to be altered (i.e. if you want to de-emphasize the Italian campaign, or build more of this or that type of weapon). I'm also excluding internal German political scenarios (assassination of Hitler or whatever) except to the extent they're triggered by imminent defeat (i.e. American artillery at the gates of Berlin in December '44). Changing the location of Overlord, or the general structure of the invasion (omit the invasion of southern France?) is OK.

So, can the Wallies beat Germany ~5 months sooner? What's your best scenario for this?
 

cra0422

Here's some ideas:
  1. Make sure that Allied planners are fully aware of what the bocage region is like. Normandy was a popular British vacation destination prior to the war and much of southern England is similar to the bocage, so planners can have some idea on how to counter it, such as making sure that Allied tanks have attachments like the "Rhino" blades.
  2. When Hitler ordered his forces to recapture Avranches in order to isolate and destroy all American forces that had advanced into Brittany, have U.S. forces advance between Orleans and Paris, allowing them to seize Paris and advance towards the English Channel on the northern bank of the Seine. After this was done, strike straight for the heart of Germany along the shortest route and on a narrow front. This would work because Hitler had committed virtually all of his forces in France to the attack and the American forces (mainly Patton's 3rd Army) were in an excellent position to take advantage of it.
 

TDM

I think the big problem here is it more to do with how well the Germans in the west fight a defensive war, rather than how much better the Walies can do themselves., Because frankly I think there's not much realistic scope for the wallies to be quicker running an opposed invasion across North Western Europe

for instance

cra0422 said:
Here's some ideas:
  1. Make sure that Allied planners are fully aware of what the bocage region is like. Normandy was a popular British vacation destination prior to the war and much of southern England is similar to the bocage, so planners can have some idea on how to counter it, such as making sure that Allied tanks have attachments like the "Rhino" blades.
  2. When Hitler ordered his forces to recapture Avranches in order to isolate and destroy all American forces that had advanced into Brittany, have U.S. forces advance between Orleans and Paris, allowing them to seize Paris and advance towards the English Channel on the northern bank of the Seine. After this was done, strike straight for the heart of Germany along the shortest route and on a narrow front. This would work because Hitler had committed virtually all of his forces in France to the attack and the American forces (mainly Patton's 3rd Army) were in an excellent position to take advantage of it.
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The walie invasion was already suffering issues with logistics so I don't think a this single all in thrust straight to Berlin is really feasible. Nor do I think h German armed forces will just sit there and let it happen even if some of them are out of place in the first stages

Normandy to Berlin is roughly 1200km, the Germans will fight, and the earlier this is in the war the less they have the Soviets on their eastern door step and the more they can focus on the west. Plus OTL the wallies didn't even need to get to Berlin for victory to be achieved because the Soviets got there first, here they will need to. So you want them not just to do the same as OTL but faster, but more than they did OTL and faster than they did less!

Italy's a weird one, yes it's not going to win the war for either side so by that definition is a sideshow, and yes it ties up wallie resources, but it ties up a lot of Axis resources as well and takes Italy out of the war. Overall I think the axis feels this more than the wallies do.
 
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TDM

Sekhmet_D said:
Market Garden succeeds.
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That's a good one, although I'm not sure of the likelihood of it (unless the Germans evacuate the entire area they are going to counter attack at some point)

Also MG is end of September, and while in theory it put's the tip of the allied spear in a good position for Germany, getting across and Germany and taking Berlin in two months (i.e., end by of 1944) might be a bit of a tall order!
 
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marathag

marathag

Banned
The Flanking movement for stalemate on the Italian Front, Operation Shingle, is instead blended with Operation Anvil, the landings on the South of France to land three divisions, under the command of General Patch.
The German Army Group G will not be expecting this in January 1944.
These forces will be able match OTLs progress of Op. Dragoon, getting to central France before logistical limits are hit.
Meanwhile, Agent Garbo released his bombshell to Canaris, that FUSAG in the UK was all a massive fake, the South of France was the real 'Invasion' target.
Thus would release much of the forces stationed in NW France away from the coasts to redeploy against Patch.
That's when Overlord with four divisions is launched, in May, while all Panzer divisions in the West are in central France trying to push back Patch and the Free French.
So in this TL, Dragoon was actually Sledgehammer, while Overlord was Anvil, and the road to Berlin is wide open
 

TDM

marathag said:
The Flanking movement for stalemate on the Italian Front, Operation Shingle, is instead blended with Operation Anvil, the landings on the South of France to land three divisions, under the command of General Patch.
The German Army Group G will not be expecting this in January 1944.
These forces will be able match OTLs progress of Op. Dragoon, getting to central France before logistical limits are hit.
Meanwhile, Agent Garbo released his bombshell to Canaris, that FUSAG in the UK was all a massive fake, the South of France was the real 'Invasion' target.
Thus would release much of the forces stationed in NW France away from the coasts to redeploy against Patch.
That's when Overlord with four divisions is launched, in May, while all Panzer divisions in the West are in central France trying to push back Patch and the Free French.
So in this TL, Dragoon was actually Sledgehammer, while Overlord was Anvil, and the road to Berlin is wide open
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I agree the German forces in France/western Europe will certainly not expect the wallies to land three divisions in southern France in Jan 1944 and advance them in land

Because it will be suicide :) ! Three unsupported divs will not last long* as a cohesive attacking force, on top of that once these three divisions are not followed by a lot more any ruse about this being the real invasion of Western Europe will be blown

Operation Shingle at least was landing troops in a country were other allied troops were already established and less than a 100 miles away (albeit with lots of Germans in between)!


*certainly not the 4 months you need them to keep the Germans busy until the four divs go across the channel. Also why only four divs in May that's a small force compared to OTL D-Day? Honestly I think this is going to be feeding three than four divisions to the Germans who will eat them up in two well spaced courses
 
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marathag

marathag

Banned
TDM said:
ecause it will be suicide :) ! Three unsupported divs will not last long* as a cohesive attacking force,
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Why unsupported? Will get all the assets that Shingle and Dragoon got.
At this time, the Nazis were dealing with a Soviet Offensive that was collapsing their positions in Ukraine thru the Carpathians, where the Nazis pulled over 45,000 men from France to stem the tide.
 

TDM

marathag said:
Why unsupported? Will get all the assets that Shingle and Dragoon got.
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Shingle wasn't exactly inundated with copious support and on top of that basically sat there and turtled until they received two more Divs and even then nothing really happened until the rest of the Italian campaign broke through the mountains and got going again with a two pronged attack.

Dragoon didn't need much in the way of support what with eleven divisions having hit the beaches and hedgerows of Normandy and those eleven being followed up by a lot more, and by then it being very, very clear that the Wallies main attack was in the north


Both of these are very different scenarios from your idea of landing three divisions by themselves marching into France to masquerade as the main wallie invasion of western Europe and trying to tie up all the Germans in and moved to France for 4 months.

marathag said:
At this time, the Nazis were dealing with a Soviet Offensive that was collapsing their positions in Ukraine thru the Carpathians, where the Nazis pulled over 45,000 men from France to stem the tide.
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There eastern situation in June 1944 wasn't much better what with Operation Bagration and yet they still found troops to send to France against the landings when they happened. Those 45k you mention were moved once Germany was pretty damn sure there was going to be no invasion of France

The real issue with this is Germany knows the Wallies have to land in Western Europe, it's not a matter of if but when. They also know that as bad as the situation is in the east if the wallies get established in the west the overall situation for them gets worse. So being able to drive back any Wallie landing in the west will secure their western flank and avoid a worse situation.

Putting three divisions in and then following up four months later with another four will allow Germany to do this by allowing Germany to chew up manageable chunks of Wallie forces

On top of that you will now have the wallies picking up the very expensive pieces of two failed seaborne invasion attempts in France.
 
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SWS

SWS

The Western Allied failure to advance the war into Germany immediately in the autumn of 1944 has been aptly referred to as the 'tyranny of logistics', even in the face of veritable German military collapse in August-September. I don't think you can achieve anything substantial without an instantaneously-operational port of Antwerp...
 
marathag

marathag

Banned
SWS said:
The Western Allied failure to advance the war into Germany immediately in the autumn of 1944 has been aptly referred to as the 'tyranny of logistics', even in the face of veritable German military collapse in August-September. I don't think you can achieve anything substantial without an instantaneously-operational port of Antwerp...
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That's where the Southern strike helps, at D+13, the mostly undamaged ports of Toulon and Marseilles were taken, with shipping coming in at D+29
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Market Garden's failure put paid to any chance for a 1944 decision by any Allied act of arms, even then it would be difficult. It isn't like the Red Army spent the Autumn of 1944 playing bridge. It lets the Warsaw Rising fail, but Soviet troops were fully engaged on three fronts that stretched from the Baltic to Yugoslavia.

Only real chance for a 1944 victory is if the July 20 Plot either full succeeds or is successful enough that Heer and Waffen SS units start fighting each other.
 

tallthinkev

CalBear said:
Market Garden's failure put paid to any chance for a 1944 decision by any Allied act of arms, even then it would be difficult. It isn't like the Red Army spent the Autumn of 1944 playing bridge. It lets the Warsaw Rising fail, but Soviet troops were fully engaged on three fronts that stretched from the Baltic to Yugoslavia.

Only real chance for a 1944 victory is if the July 20 Plot either full succeeds or is successful enough that Heer and Waffen SS units start fighting each other.
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I've never really had much time for a German civil war in WWII. The Heer and SS aren't going to be shooting each other on the Eastern Front, both lose. In the west I can see either side legging it and leaving the other to it. But maybe in German there could be some street to street fighting in some of the larger cites
 
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