Interesting, I didn’t realize that was what it was! To be sure, it’s hard finding good material on Portugal at this time, especially since the prompt for the country is “still a monarchy” and it’s very hard to find non-Republican Portuguese figures post-1910
Sequel de Mayo (Cinco de Mayo, Vol. II)
- Thread starter KingSweden24
- Start date
Whatever happened to Ellison "Cotton Ed" Smith? Dude essentially brought the CSA to war and he doesn't even get a mention during the Confederacy's final hour.
A lame duck with no influence. Thomas Martin and the bourbons in Confederate congress rule the country. Even when Smith had support from congress he was outsized by Tillman and by his own cabinet. Presidents Pro Tempore of the senate have been essentially the most powerful figures in the confederal government since Tillman took over in 1903 or so.
Portugal's population may be apoplectic now but they'll be the ones laughing all the way to the bank when they realize Cabinda alone has something like 60% of OTL Angola's oil reserves. Plus however much the area around Luanda has.
France now gets to find out what happens when you stall out on a megaproject for 40 years. This will also end great for Bogota, I'm sure.
Plus, a major difference is that IOTL France was probably the European power with which the US had the best relations; ITTL, France is probably the chummiest of the European powers with the CSA (and I think has the worst relation with the US as well), so the US will be less keen to lend to them because of that, which likely butterflies one of its two top reasons to join the war (no need to make sure the guys who owe you a shitton of money win the war you lent them money to fight if you haven't lent them any money). Plus British neutrality will do a lot to make sure either of France and Germany don't pull any of the shenanigans Germany did regarding sea lanes in OTL's WWI, so there goes the other top two reason.
Others were arguably more influential in that, and in any case the CSA, while definitely still presidentialist, has about as weak of a presidency as you can have without making it ceremonial (the Southern elite's ability to generate stupid grievances is perhaps best encapsulated by them somehow resenting an executive that was supposedly massively undermining slavery, despite most administrations in the direct leadup to the Civil War bending over backwards to appease them). As has been said, Thomas Martin has been running the show for a while and will continue to do so after Vardaman is sworn in, though Vardaman will be able to throw much more of his weight around.
Mmhmm though that wasn’t discovered until right around this time IOTL
Sidelined as a lame duck almost immediately
All great points here. Re: Cabinda, that’s exactly what I had in mind when keeping it Portuguese…
Please do! I’m always happy to have people check my work on demographics. The 1910 estimates are the last time we did it
Yeah, but he also was the commander-in-chief for the majority of war. I thought he would get one special mention post-presidency.
Gman’s Germany Pop Estimates - 1915
Ok so to start Germany, in 1910 their population was given as 64.5 million. In OTL around 1910 they had 64.9 million including Alsace-Lorraine which had 1.8 million. From 1910-1913 (i am excluding 1914 as it saw WW1 begin and did not feature unaffected population growth) their population grew to 66.9 million. A 2.4 million increase in 3 years results in 103.7% population in 1913 relative to 1910 at 100%, this translates into 1.228% annual growth compounded. If this is extrapolated over 5 years for CdM Germany (I am using the same rate for convenience's sake), we get 64,934,999*(1.01228)^5= 69 021 138 people.
Gman’s Italy Pop Estimates - 1915
For Italy in TTL their 1910 population is 38 495 039. OTL from 1910 to 1914 (the last year before Italy enetered WW1) their population increased from 34.7 million to 35.7 million, whereas from 1900-1910 it increased from 32.3 million to 34.7 million, a 7.3% increase. TTL the 1900-1910 increase was 8.8% due to higher political stability in Italy translating into a better economy and reduced emigration. The OTL 1910-1914 increase was 2.73%, which is about 0.676% per year. I am going to increase this to (0.676%*8.8%/7.3% = 0.814%) per year to account for Italy being better off translating into higher pop growth rates. This would give Italy about 38 495 039*(1.00814)^5 = 40 087 502 people in 1915.
We’ll touch on him a bit in the context of Vardaman’s inauguration.
Yeah careful what you wish for, don’t give Madrid any ideas 😜
Love it! I’ll threadmark these and any future ones you do to make it easy to reference…
Republic Reborn
"...understandable, and his divisions diverted west towards Dallas from Texarkana rather than towards Little Rock, the initial target of his campaign. By January 13th, American forces were on the Trinity River, and on January 15th they seized Dallas and Forth Worth one day later. The key rail and manufacturing center of Texas and, increasingly, the Trans-Mississippi was now out of Confederate hands, despite a spirited defense and urban guerilla fighting. Whatever Ferguson's position with the Texan populace had been before, it was only more thoroughly eroded now.
It did not help the position of the Ferguson faction that their demands for tens of thousands of Confederate troops to stream into Texas was done to capture Laredo from the decamped legislature and their allies, rather than expel American forces from the belt of cities they controlled across the north of the state. Despite the fall of Dallas, the logistical capability of punching deeper into Texas was strained and Philadelphia ordered a consolidation rather than further offensives to focus on their primary targets in Georgia and Virginia over the year ahead; the Dallas Campaign was the last major action of the war on Texan soil by American forces other than minor skirmishes with Texas Rangers and the State Militia. As such, Texans with little to no love for the United States were witnessing their Governor turning the Confederate Army into just as much of an army of occupation as the Yankee one, aimed against their fellow citizens for daring to defy him as was their constitutional prerogative. Defections to the "Laredo Legislature" by Militiamen and Rangers as well as veterans of the various fronts in the east picked up dramatically in the first part of the new year and it looked like Texas was ready to tip into all-out civil war even as the Great American War raged in the East.
The Laredo Legislature found itself also with a curious amount of support. Foreign governments were confused and intrigued by such a mundane dispute in Austin turning violent and forcing the government to rupture into two armed camps on opposite sides of the state, threatening a civil conflict on Texan soil, and more than a few saw their own potential advantages in the chaos. Mexico's new Reyes regime provided encouragement and even supplies, having been grievously offended by the behavior of Ferguson towards their retreating forces during the chaotic weeks of late October and early November. It helped, of course, that Tejanos were among the group least endeared to the Ferguson administration or his Vardamanite allies in Richmond, and also the Texans upon whom Garner had built his political base. The deterioration of Mexican-Confederate relations and violence thereafter had thus badly polarized Tejanos against Austin and Richmond alike and left them desiring a closer relationship with Mexico, for protection if nothing else. Europeans, unsure what exactly was going on, nonetheless covertly established contacts with Gore, asking pointedly if his dispute was exclusively with Ferguson or with the confederal government in Richmond and whether they should thus treat this as a general revolt, a question Gore was increasingly unsure of how to answer despite Rayburn's continued insistence that this was an internal matter for Texas and that the state's commitment to the war effort had not wavered.
This was a position in which Rayburn was increasingly isolated, however. Besides British-Canadian agents who were feeling out what exactly was going on in Laredo, it was American "diplomats" speaking on behalf of the Hughes administration in Philadelphia who were the most deliberate and indelicate in their approach. Gore was taken aback that these Yankee spies seemed to be offering overt support above and beyond what the Mexicans were, and Garner politely thanked them for their visit but rejected their more direct entreaties in late January. When Laredo Legislature leadership gathered for their daily meeting on January 26th afterwards, Rayburn asked what had been suggested, and Garner revealed that support had been offered explicitly for an independent Republic of Texas with no territorial losses and a separate bilateral treaty with the United States to escape the war with small but not overwhelming reparations if they declared independence and withdrew from the war immediately.
Most of the men in the room were shocked, and some outraged at the proposition. Garner, after Rayburn had calmed everybody down by rejecting such a suggestion out of hand, surprised his comrades when he stated that while he had thanked the Yankees for their time and then shown them the door, he had nonetheless left the door open to further discussions and that the Yankees had been very adamant in making sure he and Gore knew that they considered the group of men in Laredo as Texas' "legitimate constitutional government," with all that that perhaps entailed. Johnson mused that this was both an offer and a threat in one sentence, with which Garner concurred. Gore, at this point, finally rose and declared that it was an "opportunity, but only to consider, not to pursue."
Nobody was ready quite to take the leap, but it was the first time that the Big Four in Laredo - Gore, Garner, Rayburn and Johnson - had gazed across the abyss and pondered what awaited at the bottom if they did not move soon. The seeds for the declaration of the Second Republic of Texas had thus been planted, and as Ferguson's loyalists and the Confederate Army mustered in Austin and Houston to march on Laredo, whether or not to take advantage of this crucial hour became a much more live proposition..."
- Republic Reborn
It did not help the position of the Ferguson faction that their demands for tens of thousands of Confederate troops to stream into Texas was done to capture Laredo from the decamped legislature and their allies, rather than expel American forces from the belt of cities they controlled across the north of the state. Despite the fall of Dallas, the logistical capability of punching deeper into Texas was strained and Philadelphia ordered a consolidation rather than further offensives to focus on their primary targets in Georgia and Virginia over the year ahead; the Dallas Campaign was the last major action of the war on Texan soil by American forces other than minor skirmishes with Texas Rangers and the State Militia. As such, Texans with little to no love for the United States were witnessing their Governor turning the Confederate Army into just as much of an army of occupation as the Yankee one, aimed against their fellow citizens for daring to defy him as was their constitutional prerogative. Defections to the "Laredo Legislature" by Militiamen and Rangers as well as veterans of the various fronts in the east picked up dramatically in the first part of the new year and it looked like Texas was ready to tip into all-out civil war even as the Great American War raged in the East.
The Laredo Legislature found itself also with a curious amount of support. Foreign governments were confused and intrigued by such a mundane dispute in Austin turning violent and forcing the government to rupture into two armed camps on opposite sides of the state, threatening a civil conflict on Texan soil, and more than a few saw their own potential advantages in the chaos. Mexico's new Reyes regime provided encouragement and even supplies, having been grievously offended by the behavior of Ferguson towards their retreating forces during the chaotic weeks of late October and early November. It helped, of course, that Tejanos were among the group least endeared to the Ferguson administration or his Vardamanite allies in Richmond, and also the Texans upon whom Garner had built his political base. The deterioration of Mexican-Confederate relations and violence thereafter had thus badly polarized Tejanos against Austin and Richmond alike and left them desiring a closer relationship with Mexico, for protection if nothing else. Europeans, unsure what exactly was going on, nonetheless covertly established contacts with Gore, asking pointedly if his dispute was exclusively with Ferguson or with the confederal government in Richmond and whether they should thus treat this as a general revolt, a question Gore was increasingly unsure of how to answer despite Rayburn's continued insistence that this was an internal matter for Texas and that the state's commitment to the war effort had not wavered.
This was a position in which Rayburn was increasingly isolated, however. Besides British-Canadian agents who were feeling out what exactly was going on in Laredo, it was American "diplomats" speaking on behalf of the Hughes administration in Philadelphia who were the most deliberate and indelicate in their approach. Gore was taken aback that these Yankee spies seemed to be offering overt support above and beyond what the Mexicans were, and Garner politely thanked them for their visit but rejected their more direct entreaties in late January. When Laredo Legislature leadership gathered for their daily meeting on January 26th afterwards, Rayburn asked what had been suggested, and Garner revealed that support had been offered explicitly for an independent Republic of Texas with no territorial losses and a separate bilateral treaty with the United States to escape the war with small but not overwhelming reparations if they declared independence and withdrew from the war immediately.
Most of the men in the room were shocked, and some outraged at the proposition. Garner, after Rayburn had calmed everybody down by rejecting such a suggestion out of hand, surprised his comrades when he stated that while he had thanked the Yankees for their time and then shown them the door, he had nonetheless left the door open to further discussions and that the Yankees had been very adamant in making sure he and Gore knew that they considered the group of men in Laredo as Texas' "legitimate constitutional government," with all that that perhaps entailed. Johnson mused that this was both an offer and a threat in one sentence, with which Garner concurred. Gore, at this point, finally rose and declared that it was an "opportunity, but only to consider, not to pursue."
Nobody was ready quite to take the leap, but it was the first time that the Big Four in Laredo - Gore, Garner, Rayburn and Johnson - had gazed across the abyss and pondered what awaited at the bottom if they did not move soon. The seeds for the declaration of the Second Republic of Texas had thus been planted, and as Ferguson's loyalists and the Confederate Army mustered in Austin and Houston to march on Laredo, whether or not to take advantage of this crucial hour became a much more live proposition..."
- Republic Reborn
Makes a ton of sense - the major cities of central Texas south of the Metroplex and north of Austin (Waco, Temple, Belton, Kileen, etc) were all, at best, small cities/large towns instead of the booming cities they would become once I-35 was built and Central Texas started growing. Right now between DFW and Austin is a whole lot of nothing punctuated by a few small-ish towns (at best) so the infrastructure doesn't really lend itself to keeping a major army in supply for what is, at best, a tertiary objective for the USA.
Exactly. The economic weight of Texas at this point was in its eastern lumber forests and increasingly oil around Galveston/Port Arthur, too, so the US is very far from the (pro-Ferguson) part of TX that is actually of value to the CSA
@KingSweden24
Completely random question. But what is Jimmy Carter doing in the future, if you don't mind me asking? That is if you have anything planned? Do we stay in the navy, or do we end up being President of the Confederate States - just with a different political personality. I mean, cutthroat Jimmy Carter might be interesting...
Completely random question. But what is Jimmy Carter doing in the future, if you don't mind me asking? That is if you have anything planned? Do we stay in the navy, or do we end up being President of the Confederate States - just with a different political personality. I mean, cutthroat Jimmy Carter might be interesting...
You're assuming Jimmy Carter's dad isn't dying in a trench somewhere.
Speaking of people not existing, I would like to see atleast 2-3 fictional people(apart from royalty) running countries.