Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

Vichy changing sides will trigger Anton but, if the remain neutral but can clandestinely prepare to support a Dragoon then establishing a beachhead can be eased but they can do little more than be a nuisance delay to the Germans driving south to meet the invasion given the forces at their disposal. The ex Vichy forces that were in Italy IOTL were more to show the French flag than be a major enhancement to the other allies.

I can’t answer for the Vichy forces but the Free French were notoriously indiscreet in their HQ in London and it was fortunate that the Axis had no real agents to benefit from it. A Dragoon from North Africa will be a long convoy ride and within Italian based air and naval threats as well as German.
It all rather reminds me of a white peace by the Germans if they had kept the Italians out of the war. The Commonwealth can survive, even thrive and Britain be safe but where can they propagate any land battle with the forces at hand? The Balkans is a route that leads to Germany and can threaten Italy across the Adriatic so benny could see them coming from the Adriatic, Sicily, and, later, into the north. Offer him a way out as an ally. The Germans will be fighting on two fronts and Italy could be another. To spread the Germans around, perhaps a limited invasion of northern France to keep them pinned down there. A giant raid with a permanent beach head.

Perhaps the Americans can be given Brittany to play with and use as a training area? The Canadians were a significant British garrison force but the prospect of an USM has gone away so they can add to the Balkan forces together with the Poles and Greeks etc, ex Vichy Moroccans and Algerians and generally the OTL Italian campaign forces plus, if the Japanese are otherwise engaged with the Anzac forces busy there, the Indian armymenhenced with more Indian officers allowing more units to be raised. It might make Turkey jump into a decision to join the allies but, whilst they have the ability to raise units they are lacking in equipment etc. Perhaps local forces can be recruited as the Balkan front advances.

Ignoring the Pacific campaign, it makes the major USA contribution to be in material and shipping to arm and service these forces whilst the USA army can develop it’s skills and doctrine in Brittany (or other area/s) without reaching the size IOTL. The USAAC can continue unabated with it’s OTL strategic bombing campaign whilst providing close support in Brittany.

All a bit far fetched of course, but it is a view out of the box.
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Lord Louis was a complex caricature, highly intelligent without being an intellectual, personal brave and an excellent leader of men, an inevitable scammer, and with the personal morals of a Tom cat. Pre war he had constantly lobbied for the RN to be replace it hand cypher/code systems, with the far more secure machine systems. And post war his championship of the Blackburn Buccaneer over the TSR-2, was mostly right, but he did fail to see that the cancellation of the project would led to the collapse of the British aircraft industry. Despite being a man of the right, he wasn’t as many on the left a proto dictator, while he did without doubt explore the idea of leading a right wing unity government. I believe that the scene in the Crown TV series while fictional, when he explains to a group of potential supporters of a coup, why in Britain a coup by the left or right is virtually impossible, is closest to his personal beliefs. Here he is much as he was IOTL, in charge of Combined Operations, mostly because the Admiralty couldn’t afford to have him in command of a cruiser or aircraft carrier, as was his due, and get it sunk.

There is no question that he is in a very difficult position, the British and American governments/militaries are filled with people who just want to do something, especially an invasion of mainland Europe, and or islands in the Far East Pacific. The reasons vary from, preventing a Soviet collapse, reliving the situation in the Philippines, clearing the Italians out of the Mediterranean, etc etc. The fact that the Anglo Americans do not have the resources at present to accomplish any of these things, and should like a good painter or builder be encouraged on the simple tasks of preparing, laying down the foundations to accomplish the multitude of tasks necessary. Is something that totally escapes those with ants in their pants, and desperately desires to do something grand. So for the Anglo Americans in Europe the primary task is to defeat the U-Boats in the Atlantic, as success in this will make everything else possible. Along side this improving the supply to the Soviets, and to the Far East are priorities. In the Far East stabilising the situation in Malaya and Burma, along with ensuring that the Japanese present no threat to the DEI or Australia. While in the Central Pacific, repairing the damage done to Pearl Harbour and salvaging such ships as can be salvaged, along with stabilising the situation. All of this while awaiting American industry to ramp up production and be fully dedicated to war production. Basically from now ITTL, and for the next year, the Anglo Americans should be building the foundations to seriously take the war to the Axis powers.

Lord Louis is in many ways doing just that, he is taking the time to observe the upcoming invasion in the Mediterranean, while leaving his staff to continue a series of raids on Northern Europe, which I would expect are slowly increasing in size. In addition others on the staff will be overseeing various trials and exercises, as new equipment becomes available, and should involve if they have any sense, what type of beaches are best suited to landing what sort of vehicles. And establishing a unit to survey landing sites, and establish which sites are suitable for what types of landings. So the sheltered cove that is suitable for a clandestine landing/collecting off agents and or supplies, is definitely not suitable for landing an armoured devision. While the open beach that is suitable for landing an armoured devision, is definitely not suitable for clandestine activities. This has the advantage that with the boss out of town, his staff will always be able to say that they would love to do XY or Z, but we are going to have to check with the boss first. And he will get the chance to send reports back to his staff off the best practices he has seen, and to his superiors of the opportunities that are arising, and the problems he sees with Combined Operations at present. By the time that he returns from America and his conversations with the USMC, he should be well versed in preparing for the larger amphibious missions that are going to occur in 1943. When with the Battle of the Atlantic having been won, American industrial production having gotten fully into its stride, and the resources available to conduct large scale operations. It will be time to seriously plan for the invasion of the European mainland.

RR.
 
Thinking about the gun for tank argument again, I did recall this

1637602281_ram_aa.jpg


Dsc02780_-_ram_gun.jpg


Where they put a 3.7-inch AA gun on a Ram tank with a fully rotatable mounting. Could such experimentation be undertaken here ITTL?
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
While mounting a 3.7 inch AA gun on a Ram tank might seem like a good idea, it was a complete waste of time and money. Their is no advantage in making a heavy AA gun self propelled, as unlike the standard rapid fire smaller guns, they are not designed to engage fleeting targets. The principal reason for heavy AA guns, is to engage high flying medium and heavy bombers. Thus they need to be connected to a predictor or radar system, and be constantly receiving information about the target in relation to themselves, and provided with information as to where the target will be located. So they can fire at where the target will be once the shell has reached the predicted zone of the targets flight, and this is best done with a gun that has been emplaced in position and that place has been established accurately in relation to the predictor/radar.

RR.
 
TBH with any element that needs to support armour it needs to keep up and fill the role envisioned, as RampRat said Heavy AA isn’t really needed in keep up capacity unless you want to turn it into an assault gun for direct fire support for DUKE forces.
 
Thinking about the gun for tank argument again, I did recall this

1637602281_ram_aa.jpg


Dsc02780_-_ram_gun.jpg


Where they put a 3.7-inch AA gun on a Ram tank with a fully rotatable mounting. Could such experimentation be undertaken here ITTL?
I recall reading about this conversion many, many years ago. The author stated that with the gun elevated, it looked like a monument, with the gun depressed, it looked like a mistake.

Gator
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
How artillery and its use has changed over the centuries, a basically European perspective.

Up until the beginning of the twentieth century, the basic use of artillery ether gunpowder or mechanically powered. Remained the same it, the artilleryman used line of sight to lay and fire his weapon. While there was a steady increase in the types of ammunition available, it wasn’t until the changes brought about by improvements in metallurgical and propellants in the last years of the nineteenth century, that it became possible to indulge in indirect fire. And this was the start of increasing professionalism in the artillery branch, and the requirement that all artillery officers and NCOs have an advanced level of mathematics. As indirect fire requires some serious calculations to get your shots to land where you want them to. You need to know where you gun is, along with where your target is in relation to your gun, and this requires some very accurate surveys and maps. In addition it helps to know the following, the wind direction and speed, and the atmospheric pressure, how many shells have been fired through the barrel you are using. And when you are using a super heavy gun, the effect that the spinning of the earth will have while the shell is in flight. WWI, saw massive improvements in the application of artillery, including the first use of arial spotting, to increase the accuracy of indirect fire, plus improvements in communications. So that a forward spotter could using land lines or wireless, could call down fire and adjust it, from a gun miles away. And while there was a steady improvement in the handling of artillery up until the Vietnam War, with the introduction of the first mechanical computers, starting with the simple slide rule, and progressing to the first electronic systems. The next massive change was the deployment of GPS, which meant that without having to manually survey where your gun is, your gun fitted with a receiver can now tell you where it is. And providing you have accurate maps you can import your shells destination, while all the variables can ether be entered automatically or manually in to your fire management system. This has allowed one gun to do the work of a troop, and for it to be totally mobile, and even more accurate than any gun has been up until today.

RR.
 
6 March 1942. Singapore.
6 March 1942. Singapore.

Lieutenant General Alan Cunningham had arrived by flying boat a couple of days earlier, and had formally taken command of 12th Army on 4 March. He had requested time with Lieutenant General Percival to familiarise him with the current situation in Malaya. Cunningham was happy to give Percival the credit for a job well done. The Japanese attack could have been disastrous, instead, Percival’s command had brought the Japanese attack to a halt and thrown them back. III Indian Corps stopped the Japanese, and II Australian Corps had thrown them back. Once Schreiber’s V Corps, (1st, 4th and 51st Division) arrived Cunningham could see himself and General Alexander joining forces to take Thailand and push into French Indo-China. That was for the future.

There were a lot of hurdles to negotiate before the Japanese were defeated. The next Durban-Malaya (DM3) convoy was due shortly, and included among the personnel was the core of V Corps’ staff and a good number of engineers to prepare for the arrival of the three divisions. Some of Cunningham’s own 12th Army Staff had arrived with him, but more would be arriving by ship. Cunningham hoped that many of Percival’s staff would remain in place to make the transition as seamless as possible.

The two General Officers Commanding the two Corps that were now at the heart of 12th Army, were on hand to give their updates to their new C-in-C.

Lieutenant-General Heath (GOC III Indian Corps) was delighted to report that his men, who had suffered much, had had time to recover, and with the reinforcements that had come, he was now able to reconstitute his old 5th Indian Division (9th, 10th and 29th Indian Infantry Brigades) under the command of Major-General Harold Briggs. With 5th, 9th and 11th Indian Divisions, III Indian Corps was rested and ready for the next phase of the war.

Lieutenant-General Ivan Mackay (GOC II Australian Corps) gave an update of the situation where his three Divisions (8, 9 Australian, 18th British) had got to. 18th Division had managed to make it to Kroh and were holding there. The two Australian Divisions had pushed up to Gurun where they had halted for the most part and dug in. Aggressive patrolling had taken them as far as the Kedah River, but for the moment, all three Divisions needed time to rest and refit. This was in line with Percival’s orders and Cunningham knew that the Australians would only take the break if it was really necessary. What mattered was that the whole Corps was now linked with reasonable roads, allowing the resupply of 18th Division to be much easier.

Cunningham was tempted to put III Indian Corps back in the forefront of the action, pushing up to the Thai border and beyond. Bangkok was still another 700 miles north, and the remaining time before the onset of the next Monsoon season was limited. Cunningham had met with General Alexander in Rangoon on the way to Singapore and they had agreed to see this part of their combined push as being setting up a solid foundation for the next phase. The two commanders agreed that the combined Empire forces in Burma and Malaya weren’t quite ready to take Thailand.

By holding the Ping River line, Slim was allowing proper lines of communication to be prepared from Rangoon. Likewise, the build-up of forces in Malaya needed to be strengthened by the arrival of V Corps, and be able to replenish stocks of ammunition and all the other things an invasion of Thailand would need. Cunningham wasn't sure just yet about allowing Heath’s Corps just yet to move up and take over from the Australians. Certainly it would give the Australians time to recover and refit. Having the Australians back at full strength at the same time as V Corps would give Cunningham a really powerful force to move up into Thailand. Heath’s Indian Division would be more than capable of keeping up the aggression towards the Japanese not allowing them to dig in too hard, and keep up the pressure on them. But Cunningham believed the Australian Corps had a few more miles in them.

The other good news for Cunningham was that the situation with the RAF was continuing to improve. The arrival of DM 3 would strengthen that situation even further. Along with more replacement pilots, ground crew and crated aircraft, there were some mobile radar units, and the kind of ground echelon support that would allow the rebuilding of airfields and help the RAF transition towards offensive action. Air Vice Marshall Pulford was able to give a full assessment of the current situation. Basically, the air war was evenly balanced, the losses to the Japanese and the RAF were slightly in the RAF’s favour. The Tomahawks were holding their own against the Oscars and Japanese bombers. It was quite different from North Africa where the Hurricanes provided escort to the ground attacking Tomahawks. Here the Hurricanes acted primarily as ground attack aircraft, the Tomahawks were more capable of taking on the Japanese fighters.

The arrival of squadrons of Wellingtons in India, along with the American bombers in Australia, were another sign that the Japanese were shortly going to be at a terrible disadvantage. The losses taken by the Japanese fighters and bombers to the American Volunteer Air Group had been significant, and with the RAF learning from their tactics that had improved the ratio of kills to losses. The other element to this, as Pulford reported, was RAF staff from North Africa were now in place bringing some of their expertise in coordinating between ground and air forces. Generally, Pulford felt quite upbeat about an improving situation.

The senior intelligence officer’s briefing was to Cunningham’s mind the weakest of all he was hearing. It was clear that there just weren’t enough intelligence assets in Thailand to really know what the Japanese were up to. Cunningham had been briefed on the code breaking, and whatever radio traffic intercepts which added to the store of knowledge. Aerial reconnaissance was helpful, but with much of the ground under tree cover, there could be whole Divisions that little or nothing was known about. Battlefield assessment of Japanese dead (there were very few prisoners) gave some idea of what units the Japanese had deployed, but without a completely accurate list of Japanese army units, especially those raised in 1940 and 1941, the intelligence wasn’t entirely helpful.

The only half-decent intelligence was coming from the couple of groups that were working behind enemy lines and radioing reports. Some of these brave men had met brutal ends, but the Royal Navy was still able, especially on the west coast to support and supply the units. Cunningham decided that this was a real priority and put his Chief-of-Staff in charge of developing every possible means to improving the intelligence that as GOC 12th Army he needed.

The Engineer in Chief of Malaya Command gave up an update on the progress of improving the infrastructure allowing for better communications and resupply. Much of the work of his men was fixing the things they had destroyed as the Empire forces had retreated down the Malay peninsula. He presented a fairly positive picture of how it was going, except for two things they were short of: bridging equipment and heavy equipment. It wasn’t completely hampering their work, but it was slowing things down.

The Deputy Adjutant & Quartermaster General’s report included a section on what was expected in the next convoy, the most essential of which were artillery shells. The profligate use (as the QG described it) by the Australian Corps had reduced stocks of 25-pdr ammunition to below acceptable levels. Other ammunition stocks were also low, so the ammunition being brought on the convoy was crucial to looking towards any kind of major offensive or defensive action. This was a deciding factor for Cunningham.

He informed his new command that operations were to halt where they were, though aggressive patrolling would be expected. He would spend the next week touring the various units to get to know the men and see for himself the kind of terrain they were fighting in. Once ammunition stocks were built up, he wanted 18th Division to attempt to get over ‘the Ledge’ towards Pattani, and for the Australian Divisions to put together a mobile force to try to push up towards the border into Thailand. The Corps and Divisional Staffs would need to work up their plans for accomplish this objective, it seemed the Japanese didn’t have much to stop tanks, Cunningham wanted to use this advantage while they still had it. If the Australians managed to make progress, then Heath’s III Indian Corps would replace them in the front line, allowing Mackay’s men time to regroup and rest.
 
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* A direct invasion of Denmark is also unwise as the Germans could simply run trains full of panzer divisions there. The same problem can be said for France, which the unblooded Americans will be pushing for. There are some islands off the Danish, German and Dutch coasts, however, where that advantage would be mitigated…
Ah, you're thinking of the Frisian islands! An excellent plan, with only a few small drawbacks...
 
6 March 1942. Singapore.

Lieutenant General Alan Cunningham had arrived by flying boat a couple of days earlier, and had formally taken command of 12th Army on 4 March. He had requested time with Lieutenant General Percival to familiarise him with the current situation in Malaya. Cunningham was happy to give Percival the credit for a job well done. The Japanese attack could have been disastrous, instead, Percival’s command had brought the Japanese attack to a halt and thrown them back. III Indian Corps stopped the Japanese, and II Australian Corps had thrown them back. Once Schreiber’s V Corps, (1st, 4th and 51st Division) arrived Cunningham could see himself and General Alexander joining forces to take Thailand and push into French Indo-China. That was for the future.

There were a lot of hurdles to negotiate before the Japanese were defeated. The next Durban-Malaya (DM3) convoy was due shortly, and included among the personnel was the core of V Corps’ staff and a good number of engineers to prepare for the arrival of the three divisions. Some of Cunningham’s own 12th Army Staff had arrived with him, but more would be arriving by ship. Cunningham hoped that many of Percival’s staff would remain in place to make the transition as seamless as possible.
I presumed for now, the convoy would be heading for Singapore, since Port Swettenham (Klang) and Prai (Penang) ports are far away from available army bases and are not really suitable yet for handling that large amount of troops, and a bit too North and therefore vulnerable to Japanese airstrikes.
The two General Officers Commanding the two Corps that were now at the heart of 12th Army, were on hand to give their updates to their new C-in-C.

Lieutenant-General Heath (GOC III Indian Corps) was delighted to report that his men, who had suffered much, had had time to recover, and with the reinforcements that had come, he was now able to reconstitute his old 5th Indian Division (9th, 10th and 29th Indian Infantry Brigades) under the command of Major-General Harold Briggs. With 5th, 9th and 11th Indian Divisions, III Indian Corps was rested and ready for the next phase of the war.

Lieutenant-General Ivan Mackay (GOC II Australian Corps) gave an update of the situation where his three Divisions (8, 9 Australian, 18th British) had got to. 18th Division had managed to make it to Kroh and were holding there. The two Australian Divisions had pushed up to Gurun where they had halted for the most part and dug in. Aggressive patrolling had taken them as far as the Kedah River, but for the moment, all three Divisions needed time to rest and refit. This was in line with Percival’s orders and Cunningham knew that the Australians would only take the break if it was really necessary. What mattered was that the whole Corps was now linked with reasonable roads, allowing the resupply of 18th Division to be much easier.
Huh, could someone explained to me what aggressive patrolling meant in this case, is it a bunch of small squads going north towards the river which meant could be meant by going inside the town of Alor Setar. Meanwhile, they had to stop at Gurun since there really only one suitable road heading north, and the stretch between Gurun and Jitra is could be seen as a bottleneck by the looks of it.
Cunningham was tempted to put III Indian Corps back in the forefront of the action, pushing up to the Thai border and beyond. Bangkok was still another 700 miles north, and the remaining time before the onset of the next Monsoon season was limited. Cunningham had met with General Alexander in Rangoon on the way to Singapore and they had agreed to see this part of their combined push as being setting up a solid foundation for the next phase. The two commanders agreed that the combined Empire forces in Burma and Malaya weren’t quite ready to take Thailand.
Yup, and the further north they are travelling up the west coast of Malaya, the greater the effect of the monsoon thanks to effectively reduced protection from both Sumatra (on the west) and the Titiwangsa Mountains (on the east).
By holding the Ping River line, Slim was allowing proper lines of communication to be prepared from Rangoon. Likewise, the build-up of forces in Malaya needed to be strengthened by the arrival of V Corps, and be able to replenish stocks of ammunition and all the other things an invasion of Thailand would need. Cunningham wasn't sure just yet about allowing Heath’s Corps just yet to move up and take over from the Australians. Certainly it would give the Australians time to recover and refit. Having the Australians back at full strength at the same time as V Corps would give Cunningham a really powerful force to move up into Thailand. Heath’s Indian Division would be more than capable of keeping up the aggression towards the Japanese not allowing them to dig in too hard, and keep up the pressure on them. But Cunningham believed the Australian Corps had a few more miles in them.

The other good news for Cunningham was that the situation with the RAF was continuing to improve. The arrival of DM 3 would strengthen that situation even further. Along with more replacement pilots, ground crew and crated aircraft, there were some mobile radar units, and the kind of ground echelon support that would allow the rebuilding of airfields and help the RAF transition towards offensive action. Air Vice Marshall Pulford was able to give a full assessment of the current situation. Basically, the air war was evenly balanced, the losses to the Japanese and the RAF were slightly in the RAF’s favour. The Tomahawks were holding their own against the Oscars and Japanese bombers. It was quite different from North Africa where the Hurricanes provided escort to the ground attacking Tomahawks. Here the Hurricanes acted primarily as ground attack aircraft, the Tomahawks were more capable of taking on the Japanese fighters.

The arrival of squadrons of Wellingtons in India, along with the American bombers in Australia, were another sign that the Japanese were shortly going to be at a terrible disadvantage. The losses taken by the Japanese fighters and bombers to the American Volunteer Air Group had been significant, and with the RAF learning from their tactics that had improved the ratio of kills to losses. The other element to this, as Pulford reported, was RAF staff from North Africa were now in place bringing some of their expertise in coordinating between ground and air forces. Generally, Pulford felt quite upbeat about an improving situation.

The senior intelligence officer’s briefing was to Cunningham’s mind the weakest of all he was hearing. It was clear that there just weren’t enough intelligence assets in Thailand to really know what the Japanese were up to. Cunningham had been briefed on the code breaking, and whatever radio traffic intercepts which added to the store of knowledge. Aerial reconnaissance was helpful, but with much of the ground under tree cover, there could be whole Divisions that little or nothing was known about. Battlefield assessment of Japanese dead (there were very few prisoners) gave some idea of what units the Japanese had deployed, but without a completely accurate list of Japanese army units, especially those raised in 1940 and 1941, the intelligence wasn’t entirely helpful.

The only half-decent intelligence was coming from the couple of groups that were working behind enemy lines and radioing reports. Some of these brave men had met brutal ends, but the Royal Navy was still able, especially on the west coast to support and supply the units. Cunningham decided that this was a real priority and put his Chief-of-Staff in charge of developing every possible means to improving the intelligence that as GOC 12th Army he needed.
The Allied air force are doing well, while there is a stumbling block in term of intelligence asset.
The Japanese military is slowly but surely getting weaker. Perhaps there could be a surprise that are pending to be delivered to Tokyo by the start of the month of May.
The Engineer in Chief of Malaya Command gave up an update on the progress of improving the infrastructure allowing for better communications and resupply. Much of the work of his men was fixing the things they had destroyed as the Empire forces had retreated down the Malay peninsula. He presented a fairly positive picture of how it was going, except for two things they were short of: bridging equipment and heavy equipment. It wasn’t completely hampering their work, but it was slowing things down.
Well by the looks of it, it would not be a surprise (perhaps even an understatement) ITTL if Malay(si)a infrastructure development is advancing 10 years earlier than IOTL when ITTL 1960s comes around, but that is a look way into the future for now. Meanwhile, there would be a few things damaged along the main road if the Japanese decided to (foolishly) once again attack the British. (One example would be a newly established (as in it was not even a year old at this point) madrasah just 10 kilometres north of Gurun, which was famous IOTL...for a morbid reason)
The Deputy Adjutant & Quartermaster General’s report included a section on what was expected in the next convoy, the most essential of which were artillery shells. The profligate use (as the QG described it) by the Australian Corps had reduced stocks of 25-pdr ammunition to below acceptable levels. Other ammunition stocks were also low, so the ammunition being brought on the convoy was crucial to looking towards any kind of major offensive or defensive action. This was a deciding factor for Cunningham.

He informed his new command that operations were to halt where they were, though aggressive patrolling would be expected. He would spend the next week touring the various units to get to know the men and see for himself the kind of terrain they were fighting in. Once ammunition stocks were built up, he wanted 18th Division to attempt to get over ‘the Ledge’ towards Pattani, and for the Australian Divisions to put together a mobile force to try to push up towards the border into Thailand. The Corps and Divisional Staffs would need to work up their plans for accomplish this objective, it seemed the Japanese didn’t have much to stop tanks, Cunningham wanted to use this advantage while they still had it. If the Australians managed to make progress, then Heath’s III Indian Corps would replace them in the front line, allowing Mackay’s men time to regroup and rest.
Well hopefully with the arrival of supplies, they could push into Pattani (and perhaps taking Hat Yai) before the brunt of the monsoon hits.
All in all, another good update.
 
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Such as a lack of ability to reach the mainland, or the inability to be supported from the air in any reasonable timeframe?

And the problems of actually getting to the protected side of the islands without running aground, and being stuck in narrow channels even when the tide is up.
 
"I don't want to talk about the Friesian campaign!"..... chokes off sob, flings whisky glass into the baronial fireplace, siezes Purdey and stalks off to ease his traumatic memories by shooting a poacher (or a tenant if the poachers are having a day off).

That experience scared me off here for years.
 
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