Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

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kelgar04

MattII said:
Let me rephrase. I meant that, as soon as the Kido Butai has returned to Japan and re-equipped, they'll be sent south to launch a mass raid at Malaya/Singapore to try to break the British resistance, probably somewhere (in time) between the OTL raid on Darwin and the OTL Indian Ocean Raid.
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I think that raid will probably more than likely depend on what the wider situation in the Pacific theater will be as well as well as the status of the fighting in Malay and Singapore.

Though I have to wonder if the Navy will be laughing in the Ward Room at the army needing their help.
 

vizzer

MattII said:
There's been nothing in the TL so far to suggest otherwise.
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As it went about as well as possible relatively small butterflies could give significant differences.
I suppose even going better if e.g. the carriers are in port or worse if the expected B-17 flight is on another day so an alert is made when the raid is detected.
 

MattII

kelgar04 said:
I think that raid will probably more than likely depend on what the wider situation in the Pacific theater will be as well as well as the status of the fighting in Malay and Singapore.
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I'm pretty sure a raid of some sort is unavoidable. This would be in the time-frame they hit the British anyway, and her the British pose a much bigger threat.

kelgar04 said:
Though I have to wonder if the Navy will be laughing in the Ward Room at the army needing their help.
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Possibly.

vizzer said:
As it went about as well as possible relatively small butterflies could give significant differences.
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Could do, but I have my doubts the butterflies would have flown that far.

vizzer said:
I suppose even going better if e.g. the carriers are in port or worse if the expected B-17 flight is on another day so an alert is made when the raid is detected.
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Mm, I think any changes would be on the Japanese side rather than the American one...
 

wietze

vizzer said:
As it went about as well as possible relatively small butterflies could give significant differences.
I suppose even going better if e.g. the carriers are in port or worse if the expected B-17 flight is on another day so an alert is made when the raid is detected.
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the expected b17 flight on another day - could happen,with everything that has gone on, the timing of that could change a little.


MattII said:
Could do, but I have my doubts the butterflies would have flown that far.
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changes have been going on for a while now, and they are not restricted to their location.
just someone in the us hierarchy reading about these things, might cause a little change in scheduling or plans with the ensuing butterflies.
 
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16 November 1941. Kazan Tank School, CCCP.
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    • allanpcameron

    Donor
    16 November 1941. Kazan Tank School, CCCP.

    The arrival of the second convoy from Britain at the end of October had included more tanks for the Soviets. As Sir John Carden had expected, the preferred choice from all the different types that had been sent on the first convoy was the Valiant I. The second convoy had carried sixty of these, as well as another twenty Matilda II, their second choice. The next convoy was due to arrive in a few more days, carrying another sixty Valiant I, but would also include five Valiant II. The primary difference being that it was capable of taking the Russian 76mm gun rather than the 6-pdr which weren’t yet in wide enough production. A further twenty Matilda II tanks were also being delivered. To ease the problems of supply the Matilda II were the Mark III version with a diesel engine.

    The Soviets had asked for modifications to be made before the British Mark II and III (as they called the Matilda and Valiant) were shipped. While British tanks were designed to operate in freezing conditions, a Russian winter was a very different experience of ‘freezing.’ Both British tanks had armoured side skirts which in snow and muddy conditions would affect the mobility of the tank. It was difficult to clear any clogged ice or mud, affecting the drivetrain and suspension. Twelve inches of snow was enough stop the tanks from moving, and the narrow tracks had limited grip on icy terrain.

    The 2-pdr guns, with the lack of an HE shell was another complaint, so a percentage of the tanks being sent were Close Support variants, equipped with the 3-inch howitzer. The idea of receiving the Valiant II without a British gun and equipping it with the same gun as the T34 was very attractive. A request for the gun used in the T34 and KV1 to be sent to Vickers to ensure the correct fit had been ignored. Likewise, the request for the drawings of the guns was also ignored. The British civilian and military personnel who had come with the tanks to instruct the Soviets found that they were treated with suspicion by those in authority. The personal relationships with the Soviet tank crews were friendly, but the Soviets had obviously been warned against too much fraternisation. The British too had been warned off Soviet women becoming too friendly, there was the suspicion of what were described as ‘honey traps’.

    In the meantime, the 164th Tank Brigade and 136th Separate Tank Battalion were familiarising and equipping themselves with the Valiant I and Matilda II tanks respectively. Part of the 16th Army, they would soon be thrown into the defence of Moscow.

    (I relied heavily on this article in writing this:     WW2 Soviet Medium Tanks Archives - Tank Encyclopedia (tanks-encyclopedia.com)
     
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    • X Oristos

    I would like to offer my two cents worth of observations.

    When it comes to Tunisia, come on guys, it is de Lattre we are talking about. There is no chance the remnants of the DAK to lower themselves to be interned by French of all people, not after they conquered France in the most stunning victory in living memory. Likewise, I believe de Lattre was serious on the doctrine to "fight whoever comes". He won't bent. @jeandebueil , @Starinski what are you guys thinking on the topic?

    We have talked about butterflies on Malaya, Rabaul and Timor, but what about Ambon? @allanpcameron I have here a number of sources on the topic:

    Basically, a whole brigade at Ambon is more than Scriven had recommended in OTL. He had ascertained that the island should be defended by two infantry battalions and three troops of howitzers. Instead, Ambon gets 3 infantry battalions and an artillery regiment. Due to the lack of forces, the OTL Australians had few options when it came to their deployment: they could not contest the landings and were positioned further inland.

    That won't be the case in TTL. The IJA has 3 infantry battalions, 1 artillery battalion (12 75mm guns) and 579 men of the Kure 1st SNLF. The Allies have an australian brigade group and the 2,600 Dutch garrison of regular KNIL men and militia. The Australians had already guessed correctly where landings would take place and in TTL they will be able to have dug in troops there. I cannot see the first assault succeeding. Granted, Ambon will fail, but the Japanese would need to prepare a second assault.

    A prolonged defence of Ambon buys a lot of time to the defenders of Timor, since the Ambon IJA force was the backbone of the Timor invasion. Postpone a landing at Timor and then the Allies will have a whole division at the island.
     

    gallen95

    kelgar04 said:
    They didn't radar in the Philippines from what I remember it was still pretty raw in the US armed forces.

    They had it but were still feeling their way around it.
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    According to John T. Correll in "Disaster in the Phillippines",
    "USAFFE possessed seven radar sets, of which two—one at Iba Field and the other outside Manila—were operational on Dec. 8. Ground observers at critical locations served as additional lookouts, but it took almost an hour for their reports to reach Interceptor Command.
     
    GarethC

    GarethC

    kelgar04 said:
    So basically US aircraft until they develop the skills and techniques needed in coordination for aircraft interception are like amateur boxer fighting a professional boxer they can get an occasional lucky hit in but they are going to get pummelled until they can pick up the same skills that the RAF Fighter Command had developed by the time of the battle of Britian.
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    Kind of, but...

    While Dec 8th is very likely to be a bad day, on Dec 9th there is the ability to work out what went wrong at Manila and Pearl so that it doesn't happen so badly again. The USAAF is not run by Admiral King and can send someone on the next flight to London to ask how the RAF has been doing this business for a while, and within a week have a detailed answer.

    Some parts of the Pacific War are easier to do this for than others. Guam, Wake, and Midway aren't very big islands, so the co-location advantages of sensor, analyst, decision-maker, and fighter controller are almost as present as on a carrier.

    Fundamentally, the US on Dec 8th now knows there's a war on, and that allows the officers on whom the responsibility sits to act differently than they were able to justify the day before.
     

    Peg Leg Pom

    gallen95 said:
    Ground observers at critical locations served as additional lookouts, but it took almost an hour for their reports to reach Interceptor Command.
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    An hour!!!! The spotters might as well have stayed in bed for all the good they were doing. How the hell were they passing their reports up the chain of command, Boy Scouts on push bikes?
     
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    vizzer

    For islands wouldn't it be better to use naval radar & control systems as, effectively, they're the same as a carrier. This also gives naval personnel a chance to gain experience which can then be transferred to either carriers or other ships.
     

    federermod

    So Valiant II production will continue as Victor production expands? Hopefully the Soviets won't see any Victors. Though it seems like the Soviets are the only ones who could make use of large numbers of A13s and 15s before those tanks become pretty useless. Of course a few could be used against the Japanese. Hopefully in 1942 the British focus on their needs and let the US bend over backwards for Uncle Joe.
    Edit: This is where Churchill's idea with the turrets could work because the 6 pdr bottleneck won't matter as the Russians will be happy with gunless turrets. Could even send refurbished Valiant Is with the new turret from Egypt via Iran once the NA is done.
     
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    CB13

    gallen95 said:
    According to John T. Correll in "Disaster in the Phillippines",
    "USAFFE possessed seven radar sets, of which two—one at Iba Field and the other outside Manila—were operational on Dec. 8. Ground observers at critical locations served as additional lookouts, but it took almost an hour for their reports to reach Interceptor Command.
    Click to expand...

    I assume the delay was caused by the use of "runners" in place of wireless radios?
     
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