Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

ferdi254

Banned
Farmer just to be precise here. The USSr had two nearly completely independent currency economies. One was hard currency like dollar. Earned by oil and more importantly gas for all practical purposes. Spent for food imports, luxuries and revolutionary aid. I assume you mean the west is no longer buying oil or gas (not paying for already delivered would be a major escalation) which also means prices will soar (extremely bad for the economy) and after some 4-5 months things will get difficult.

So no more foreign currency coming in is not the problem in itself as the GDR and Poland are under martial law and will not import any luxuries. You are on spot with the help in foreign countries. Cuba, Nicaragua, Simbabwe and others will face troubles.

And yes the internal production is likely to be hit hard but there will be no rubel cash crunch as printing money is pretty easy and can be done fast.

So ittl the major concern would be food as no more imports come in and agrarian production would be most hampered by lack of transportation and manpower. Then comes foreign aid.
 
Chistrory - Depends on which boom your talking about but the soon the situation will start going down hill soon. You don't have a month before the war starts and then the big boom will come along. If you were born before 1984, consider where you were living at the time that should give you a good idea of your life expectancy. Although weapons failure will be a part of the attack. A lot of the ICBM"s and SLBM's on both sides have been around for a fair amount of time

I remember reading a discussion between a executive from a company that made the Minuteman commented that the Minuteman was like a fine wine the older it was to better it was. To which an Air Force General replied no the missile were like cheese the older they were the more they stink. Consider the percentage of failure.
 
The Soviet Union had two currencies in the late 1980's and they still went bankrupt, all i am doing is speeding it up by a few years. No one really knows what the state of the Soviet Economy. The Soviet did not have a good set of books for anything.
 
At this time of year in 1984 my family would probably be living in Birmingham AL where we had moved for a year fellowship. Depending on when I was recalled to active duty (reservist orthopaedic surgeon) my family might have stayed there or moved to be near my family (New Orleans) but most likely staying put. Depending on where Birmingham is on the target list, and the luck of whatever is shot at it, and where any weapon(s) go off short term they may be OK. As for me, it all depends on where I am assigned when the feces hits the rotating ventilator.
 
We lived next to Barksdale AFB (HQ 8th Air Force and B-52s). We'd probably have bugged out to my uncles cabin further south on the Texas side of Toledo Bend lake so hopefully I wouldn't have been part of the upper atmosphere.
 
You don't have a month before the war starts and then the big boom will come along. If you were born before 1984, consider where you were living at the time that should give you a good idea of your life expectancy.

Essentially Nil. North East England still ruled by heavy industry, coal, steel, chemicals, mining and ship building. We are gonners. Glowing gonners.
 
I still remember (barely) my dad packing up my mom, my brother and I and sending us from Milwaukee to my grandparents' farm in the Middle of Wisconsin during the Cuban Missile crisis. I surely had no inkling of what was really going on at the time as I was only four, but I do remember the uneasy goodbyes as we headed off north.
 

ferdi254

Banned
Farmer the USSR and the WP went broke because they could no longer repay loans taken on 82-85 to import luxuries and food because of reduced oil prices. That exactly won‘t be any problem ITTL both because oil proces will soar, no more luxuries are needed especially for the GDR and Poland and you cannot take on any more loans. The currency situation of the east is pretty well known
 

ferdi254

Banned
And unless any side is stupid with its target list pretty much nobody will survive on both sides. The USSR had 10k warheads it could deliver to the USA. That means one for every 24.000 citizens.
 
ferdi254 - Well in this alternate time line they are going bankrupt.

As for no one surviving well the Soviet Union has a lot of targets all over the world and they will not just concentrate on the US as for the one in twenty-four thousand. Well those missile will be targeted in most cases in groups of two or possibly three if the target or targets are important enough. Some areas will see concentrations of nuclear strikes and other area will deal with the radioactive fallout and that is it. The attack will not be spread across the country in an attempt to kill everyone. Add on at least twenty percent of the warhead will fail for one reason or another. I don't and never did believe nor can be convince in the we will all die scenario.
 
There is data out there oin the readiness rates, expected failure rates for the Soviet missiles in the 80s. I am sure you know about the CEP issue, not only were they much larger for Soviet missiles (hence the tendency for larger warheads) but since the CEP means 50% of the weapons will fall in that circle, the other 50% anywhere from 1 inch to who knows outside... For Soviet bombers, there are ways to calculate losses to air defenses before they reach targets, and damaged aircraft will either try and hit designated alternates or simply try and drop on something that looks promising rather than "wasting" the weapon.
 
sloreck- Thank you for that bit of info readiness and expected failure rates for the Soviet missiles. CEP offered the opportunity for someone to say why did they nuke Claude Texas or other entertaining ideas.
 
One indicator of preparations for a nuclear strike by the Soviets would be moving heavy bombers from usual bases to bases closer to the periphery of the USSR. Compared to the USA the USSR was/is really short on tankers so they would forward stage to reduce the need for tanking up as often as if they left from usual bases.
 
One indicator of preparations for a nuclear strike by the Soviets would be moving heavy bombers from usual bases to bases closer to the periphery of the USSR. Compared to the USA the USSR was/is really short on tankers so they would forward stage to reduce the need for tanking up as often as if they left from usual bases.

Every SAC bomb wing had at least one air refueling squadron of KC-135s and there were numerous independent air refueling wings, as well as guard and reserve tanker units. Barksdale had 71st ARS with KC-135s. They also had 32nd ARS and 78th ARS (AFRES) with KC-10s, but the KC-10s were never on SIOP alert.
There were also B-52Gs with 62nd and 596th Bomb Squadrons.
 
sloreck- To describe the operation tanker of the Soviet Union had at the time as a tanker is being generous. The first real tanker the Soviets developed was still in testing. In fact i used the few completed tankers of that new model they had to support the reinforcement of Bougainville.

USN VET- Very true the US had large number of tankers and they are a real force multiplier and allow the movement of planes, troops, equipment and supplies just about anywhere in the worlds. To say this was a great advantage to the US is an understatement. The tankers helped to make American Airpower great. After all if you cannot get there, you cannot fight there.
 
2nd Aug/1st Aug New Beginning Day 4
10am New Delhi Despite Gromyko speech in Monday, the world press expressing the belief that the Soviet Union and the America would quickly come to an agreement. The fact that in the negotiation there was no movement or compromise from either side. Gromyko could not while Schultz was waiting for the Soviet Union to come to its senses. While Indira Ghandi talked behind the scenes to both men. Gromyko expressed confidence that an agreement could be found but he emphasized it could take time. While Schultz simply commented that he believed that with time both sides would come together. But for the moment nothing was changing and the crisis dragged on.

1pm Moscow
The Politburo had gathered for a meeting, it was agreed that the President of the Presidium Vasili Kuznetsoz would be in charge of the Politburo during any of Chernenko’s absences due to sickness. The announcements of United Kingdom and Canada of the movement of additional troops to West Germany. The United States was also not letting up on sending more troops but the KGB was reporting that the United States was running out new units to commit to the battle in Europe until now the Americans had refused to consider the idea of sending the older M-48 Patton’s into battle. But there were some reports that the US Army was gradually coming around to the idea of committing these tanks into combat should the war last longer than expected.

Then the discussion about cutting the budget, the problem was that no one really wanted to cut the budget. Gorbachev finally decided to make a stand, he stood up and told the Politburo we need to face the reality of the situation. To bring the crisis quickly to an end should be our first priority. Then once the crisis is over we can demobilize the army that will bring considerable cost saving. Then we can assess the situation and consider just where to make the necessary cuts in the current expenditures of the Soviet Union.

Gorbachev decision to make stand gained him some approval but other than saving money on the demobilization of the military as well as bring the crisis to a quick end. Both of those stands were popular, the making the necessary cuts at a later date also was appealing to the more moderate members of the Politburo.


Romanov considered his response, he decided to point out that too quick of a retreat would encourage the west. He pointed out that to swift of a retreat from the hardline positions taken by the Soviet Union would only encourage the West to believe that Gorbachev was weak and not willing to standup to West. That line of reasoning was accepted by the hardliners. But it quickly became apparent that neither man had a majority.

The people in the middle were not convinced that either argument was totally correct. While they had supported the Hardline positions for the negotiations. They were in their minds flexible on what to do. They were not going to go one way or the other without being convinced.

Gorbachev’s response was simple, we have a crisis we need to face and to take rapid action to bring this crisis to an end. Romanov stood up and he replied, **We need to face the crisis but we don’t need to create new problems by blindly brining the crisis to an end. Without consideration to certain realities. We need to realized that much of the expenditures made by the Soviet Union is the defense budget and to cut the defense budget right after a crisis with the West especially one that reduces the number of divisions, troops, officers and equipment could cause the West to make aggressive moves against the Soviet Union’s allies in the WASAW PACT.

Both lines of reasoning were pretty much accepted by the members of the Politburo. But no one in the middle wanted to look like they were siding with either Gorbachev or Romanov. After all none of them knew for sure who would come out on top in the upcoming power struggle. At the same time Chernenko was still in power even if he was on death doors, who knew how long he would survive. That meant no one wanted to get to far out in front. This left a lot of people more interested in keeping a low profile that taking a serious stand on anything.

Romanov had a brainstorm, a few well-placed leaks putting for the idea that Gorbachev wanted to cut drastically cut the defense budget. Romanov also knew that this could backfire if he was not careful. Then he decided to see if Gorbachev would commit himself to cuts in the defense budget. Romanov sudden spoke out, **Comrade Gorbachev I would like to know just how much the defense budget you think should be cut to get the Soviet Union out of this crisis.

Gorbachev knew a trap when he saw one. But at the same time, he felt had to say something to show that the was truly a leader to follow. Gorbachev looked around the room at the other members of the Politburo as he considered what to say. Then he spoke, **At this time I don’t have any definite plans to cut the defense budget but I will do what I need to do to make sure that the Soviet Union does not collapse due to a financial shortage. Possibly reducing the over size of the Military and slowing down ship construction. **

Romanov listened carefully to what Gorbachev had said but he said nothing in return. Now he had some of the ammunition he needed to bring the military over to his side. Chernenko was not attending this meeting but his failing health a consideration to everyone in the room. When the meeting was over nothing had been decided but the battle lines were now even more firmly set in place. But it was agreed to hold off anymore talk until Friday to give the Politburo more time to think. But Gorbachev was not optimistic that anything would be decided, the truth was that the defense budget needed to be cut. But no one had the courage to face that truth, what Gorbachev was hoping that his display of courage of at least thinking about cutting the budget would gain him some more support.

Narvik, Norway The ships carrying the equipment for the third companies of the 5th brigade’s battalions and the troops for the equipment had been waiting for a little over a week for the equipment to arrive. Morale amongst the troops was quite high, but that was pretty much because everyone expected the crisis to end.

Warcop UK The reporter with a cameraman had been trying to find out what was going on at the Warcop training area. But so far, he had been able to find pretty much nothing. What he had not realized was that while he had been nosing around for his story. The local populace had told the military that there was a Soviet spy pretending to be a BBC reporter. MI-5 and military intelligence had been keeping an eye on the two men. It had not taken long to figure out that they employed by the BBC. But that did not mean they were not spies or in the view of the military worse members of the press out to make the 43rd Wessex Division look bad. That in the view of the divisions commander was infinitely worse. Finally, it had been decided to just keep an eye on them just in case they tried something. Then he could arrest them and if anyone complained he could tell the world that they had not come to the military with any requests to see the troops train so he had decided that they were really spies. Then let the reporter and his cameraman talk their way out of the situation.
 
3/2 Aug New Beginning Day 5
Romanov used Gorbachev’s comments to good effect, he informed Marshall of the Soviet Union Ogarkov that Gorbachev was open to the idea of cutting defense spending to bring spending under control. Romanov was looking to bring the Soviet military in general over to his side. Ogarkov was not willing to consider taking a firm stand against Gorbachev. But at the crisis dragged he was beginning to question Gorbachev decisions and as well as his ability. Gorbachev decision to play politics of Bougainville and his forcing the Soviet Union to send more troops to Bougainville had already damaged his standing with Ogarkov. That meant that Ogarkov was more than willing to believe that Gorbachev would cut defense spending without hesitation.

While Ogarkov, had grimly listened to Romanov, he found it infuriating that Gorbachev would be considering the cutting of Soviet defense spending with such an aggressive American president in office. Even worse it had been the power of the Soviet Unions military that had made the Americans hesitate in attacking the Soviet Union. But now Ogarkov was much leaning more toward Romanov.


What Romanov did not know was that the Minister of Defense Ustinov had already told Ogarkov about what Gorbachev had suggested. The fact that Romanov had been more circumspect about the potential cuts and had not exaggerated the potential cuts. Ustinov had been much more alarmist than Romanov he had commented that the decision to immediately remove all the Category D division from the Armies order of battle. What was of less worry to him the delay of the Heavy Aircraft Carrying Cruisers of the Tbilisi class. But the restrained commentary by Romanov more than confirmed Ogarkov’s concerns about Gorbachev as the next General Secretary.

The question was just what Gorbachev do if he took power, one thing was certain that he would remove Ogarkov as Chief of the General Staff. But he was to good of an officer to just look to his own career concerns. He was worried that large numbers of officers could be stripped of both their commission and pensions. To reduce the officer corps right after protecting the Soviet Union during this crisis would be a slap in the face of every officer whether they were kept or discharged. That would devastate the officer corps and reduce the moral of the Army down to levels not seen since Khrushchev had been General Secretary.

Orgarkov was now hoping that Chernenko would last for awhile longer. He did not want to see a situation where the Army would have to take sides power struggle over who would be General Secretary of the Soviet Union. Orgarkov started to rollover ideas in his mind as he considered what to do as a result of this crisis. But one thing was clear to him, that war as a solution to the Soviet Union’s problems was looking better and better to him. But selling that idea to the Politburo would be difficult. With Chernenko as General Secretary the safest course would be the one most likely followed. This crisis was the result of Chernenko actually taking risks. There was not much chance of him being that daring again in the near future.

Fulda Gap
The battalion had been getting ready for a visit from the new Agricultural Secretary, he had arrived in West Germany two days before. He had been in a series of meeting with the West Germany government about arranging food shipments to German incase of war. Now he was coming to visit the battalion. It was well known that he was not only a combat veteran from world war two he had did a tour during the Korean War. He also had made it to the rank of lieutenant Colonel in the National Guard before he retired. He had been an effective battalion commander with a lot of combat experience. The word had been sent down to be on your toes since a horse and pony show would not go down well with him.

It was the cook’s excellent reputation for putting on a good feed had made this battalion the choice of high command. It was not gourmet by any stretch of the imagination but it was damn good. General Rogers was with him and that was what really got people on their toes. Rodney was there with his staff and Chuck. He had wanted to have all of his company commanders here but the battalion XO pointed out that it could leave him open to serious questions about the advisability of having his entire battalion leadership in one place. Rodney for once had listened to his staff. The arrival of the group went smoothly and the tour was a success. The Rogers gave Lt. Col. Rodney a few compliments on the deployment of the troops with the Brigade commander saying little.


Supper for the today was Lasagna and of course garlic bread with mixed vegetables and cake German Spice cake. The food was good and that was a plus also Mike was happy to be back in the field again even if it was only for a little while. He enjoyed talking to the troops and one of them asked if this had been his first trip to Germany and he replied, **No but the last one was at Uncle Sam’s expense. I landed in Normandy a few days after D-day. The way I got to Germany was one step at a time. That caught the troops attention he had been a grunt and in World War Two at that no one had any similar experience. Most of the troops did not have any combat experience and in truth they were afraid of what could be coming but they would not admit out loud.


He told the troops about his first day in combat, **I was put into the line as a replacement. The company had been pretty well shot to pieces so there were not a whole lot of experienced combat troops left in the unit. I was taken to a machine gun position; the machine gun was in the middle with a foxhole on either side. I was put on the left side and another replacement was put on the other side then the assistant gunner was pulled out and another replacement was put in as his replacement and the officer that was with them commented that the company was so shot up that the assistant gunner would have a gun all his own with another replacement.**


Mike nodded his head, **You don’t know how you will react the first time in combat. That night as it got darker and darker, you could hear machines guns going at ii The rumble of artillery. The Gunner had made his way out to my position and he told me to keep my eyes open or I’d be deader than a doornail and don’t make any noise you don’t want the krauts to figure out where you are or yu’ll be dead. Any questions? But before I could say a word he was gone. **

** I sat there not making any noise and all I could hear was occasion shots and the artillery. Then sometime after Midnight, we were hit by mortars at the time I had no idea what kind of mortars. But later on, I realized we were being hit by a mixture of 81mm and 120mm. Then the mortars stopped and we could hear tanks out in front of us. Then someone screamed Tigers and a whole lot of people jumped out of their foxhole screaming Tigers. I was a little slow on moving so the Machine Gunner grab me cursing telling me I was goin fuckin nowhere and he shove me back to my foxhole. **

Mike looked a little embarrassed commented, **The cry of Tigers frightened the replacements and not a few of the experienced troop. I could hear the Tiger coming forward and the infantrymen around the Tiger keeping it covered. ** It was looking like the krauts were going to breakthrough. Then the Tiger moved into a streambed and then out. The Tiger bow began to rise up. Then a bazooka man put a round into the belly of the Tiger. That took the steam out of the attack as the Krauts began to fall back.

When daylight came the officers and sergeants brought back the men who had run. The first thing they did was take them over to the Tiger. It turned out to be a Sturmgeschutz IV a variant of the Mark IV Panzer. Not a Tiger. ** Mike went quiet for a moment as the troops considered that bit of information. Then he commented, **It seemed like anytime we went up against a Kraut tank our boys would screaming Tiger. Our boys were infected with Tiger terror but I can tell you when I heard that Tiger were attacking I would think maybe maybe not but in the pit of my stomach would be a knot until I got a look at the tank. **
One of the young soldiers brought up on World War two movies commented, ** In the movies those Tiger would just run over anything and anyone. I can see why you and everyone else would be scared. ** That brought nods of agreement, Mike replied, **But you need to remember to not let your fear to control you. You need to control your fear. ** Then the cooks began serving the food.
 
8AM Fort Stewart Ga.
The first loads of troops from the 47th Infantry division were just taking off the plan was to move the division to Germany in less than eight days. The only other major movement of troops was the 35th Infantry out of Fort Reilly to Greece to meet up with the soon to arrive convoy of the divisions equipment.
10am Quebec
The equipment of the newly organized 2nd brigade of the Canadian Mobile Force left port on the way to Antwerp. The planned arrival date was nine days in the future on the 11th of August. At the same time the first of the brigade’s troops began their movement to Europe. The troops were going now so that the 3rd brigade’s movement of troops would not be delayed. At the same time USAF C-130’s was promised to help in the movement of both brigades.

All across Canada and the United States a new series of anti-war protests broke out, they demanded that both countries cease sending troops to Europe as a gesture of peace to the Soviet Union. In the United States Newt Gingrich, a junior Congressman from Georgia spoke out against the lack of realism display by the anti-war movement. He pointed out that the Soviet Union had only agreed to go to the Peace Conference because the world opinion had force the Soviet Union to attend. He also commented that Gromyko’s speech on the first day of the conference displayed the Soviet Unions true attitude to world peace.

Ted Kennedy would respond to Newt Gingrich’s comments by stating that the Reagan White House unceasing hostility to the Soviet Union had caused to react in such a negative fashion that understanding was the path to peace. The kind of understanding that Reagan and his White House as incapable of doing. That was why America and the world would be better off with Mondale as president of the United States. What no one pointed out was that the crisis should be over before the election.
 
Damn Farmer12 NATO must have most of its troops on the front line.
Things a hotting up quite nicely.
Just thank God I was a 5 year old in Donegal at the time. Its looking like the war could get pretty Rough.
Once again thanks for this great Story. Keep her Lit Sir!!!!
 
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