Commodore Perry's expedition to Japan is 2 years earlier than it was irl, the beginning of Japan's rapid industrialization, the Meiji restoration etc, are all also hastened by 2 years. Then in the 1860s-early 1880s, Japan purchases moderately less battleships than it did irl, then moderately more in the mid & late 1880s than it did irl, then Japan starts the first Sino-Japanese war in 1890 instead of 1894. How would this affect power dynamics and the geo-politics of the 1890s? Would the Russo-Japanese war also be hastened? Would it even still happen? Would it be delayed?