Commodore Perry's expedition to Japan is 2 years earlier than it was irl, the beginning of Japan's rapid industrialization, the Meiji restoration etc, are all also hastened by 2 years. Then in the 1860s-early 1880s, Japan purchases moderately less battleships than it did irl, then moderately more in the mid & late 1880s than it did irl, then Japan starts the first Sino-Japanese war in 1890 instead of 1894. How would this affect power dynamics and the geo-politics of the 1890s? Would the Russo-Japanese war also be hastened? Would it even still happen? Would it be delayed?
What if the first Sino-Japanese war happened slightly earlier?
- Thread starter Wr1t3r
- Start date
I don't really get what's the point, but I'd hedge nothing adjacent seems likely to change.
But if Russia forces Japan out of the laiaodong peninsula earlier, isn't the Russo-japanese war also likely to be earlier?
Yes, but unless we're going butterflies chances are the actors, the action and the outcomes roughly remain the same, only shifted 2-3 years in advance.
I would argue that the Russo-Japanese war wont be earlier. There is a number of factors for that:
1. One of the main reason Japan decided that if there is to be war it should be before the completion of the transsiberian railway. That wont likely change because of the japanese events
2. The british alliance was also vital for Japan to opt for war. Now that again hinges on a lot of factors some of which are independent of Japan.
3. OTL the treaty of Shimonoseki was contested by a grouping of Russia-Germany-France. This could be either completely butterflied or bring the germans and russians back together right after the OTL non renewal of the reinsurance treaty.
1. One of the main reason Japan decided that if there is to be war it should be before the completion of the transsiberian railway. That wont likely change because of the japanese events
2. The british alliance was also vital for Japan to opt for war. Now that again hinges on a lot of factors some of which are independent of Japan.
3. OTL the treaty of Shimonoseki was contested by a grouping of Russia-Germany-France. This could be either completely butterflied or bring the germans and russians back together right after the OTL non renewal of the reinsurance treaty.
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Wouldn't this be hastened as the British would see the Japanese as competent after defeating the Chinese earlier?
what ''OTL non renewal of the reinsurance treaty''?
The alliance was mainly a reaction to russian expansionism in the Far East, specifically russian refusal to withraw from Manchuria after the boxer rebellion. In this sense possibly. Depends on if Russia still refuses to withdraw from Manchuria after an earlier boxer rebellion.
OTL the reinsurance treaty between Germany and Russia was do to renewal in 1890, which the germans refused to do. This was a huge step towards the franco-russian alliance. The first Sino-japanese war OTL ended in 1895 with the treaty of Shimonoseki. In it China was forced to cede Taiwan and the Liaodong Peninsula (at the tip of which later Port Arthur or Ryojun was built) to Japan. This was however largely owerturned by an intervention (treatening war) of Russia, Germany and France - which had a huge effect on Japan.
Now you made the Sino-Japanese war to happen much earlier, ending sortly after the germans refused to renew the reinsurance treaty and before the franco-russian alliance. There is a huge question mark on the intervention that OTL happened and its possible effects on european relations if it does happen.
Is the boxer rebellion likely hastened?
Wouldn't this just mean France doesn't accompany Germany & Russia in stopping Japan?
AFAIK one of the main causes was the sino-japanese war so I would say yes.
Would Germany be interested in this at this time? Probably yes but im not sure. I dont think France had much interest in the North of China but again im not sure. If indeed only Russia and Germany goes forward how much would this repair their relationship? Would Japan cave even if the opponents are only Germany - with questionable ability to powerproject into East Asia at this time - and Russia? Even if Japan caved without a fight like it did OTL would this still inspire them to develope their military and fleet like it did OTL?
What do you think is most likely to happen from the PoD/s in my OP?
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I have to state that while I studied the time period between 1900 and 1914 extensively - most of the crucial changes your POD caused is going too take place in the 1890's. Some of the things caused to be earlier I feel confident to comment on - like OTL russo japanese war, the boxer rebellion etc. But the specific cicumstances of especially the early 1890's I dont feel confident in predicting. The 5 years difference in the date of the sino-japanese war is massive. The franco-russian alliance came into existence, there is a different tsar in Russia - and while I dont know much about Alexander III even I know he was very different compared to his son. But Witte is already in position and was a driving force behind the Far Eastern policy of Russia so maybe not that important? France is already pursuing the russian alliance I think but would this be enough for them to participate? What would Germany do? There are tons of question - too many factors im not at all confident in predicting so im sorry but I dont think I can make a prediction.
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It's 4 years, the war started in 1894. Unless you think Japan would be able to beat China even faster.
Ok, let's assume that Alex III, reacts to the loss against Japan, the same way Nick II did.
Don't be sorry. Thanks for trying
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