WI: Chiang Kai-Shek is Killed in 1938

[Zulfurium]

I have recently been wondering what the consequences would have been if Chiang Kai-Shek had been killed during the transfer of government to Chongqing in June of 1938, lets say in a chance bombing raid or something like that, prior to him ordering the flooding of the Yellow River. At the time the Chinese government was in a state of severe crisis with few if anyone who could have held central leadership in Chiang's place. While I rather loathe him, I don't know of anyone else at that time who could have held on to power in the Chinese government. With Chiang dead I have been wondering how the situation would have played out.

The Japanese were trying to set up a puppet government and shut down the conflict in China as quickly as possible at the time, with Chiang being one of the largest stumbling blocks to that goal. With him dead, what happens with leadership of the Chinese resistance? Would the Chinese devolve into violent infighting or is there anyone who could have taken leadership without major opposition? What would the Communist Chinese do? Would the impetus towards peace be enough to bring the Chinese to the table with Japan?

Assuming a deal of some sort was cut with the Japanese, what would a Sino-Japanese peace in 1938 look like? How long would it hold? What would early military success mean for the internal political situation in Japan? What would the Japanese do if they suddenly had many of the resources tied up in China available to them?

Finally, how would all of this play into the leadup to World War Two? Japanese victory in China would have a profound impact on foreign policy in Asia, Europe and America, but what sort of reaction would the different powers have and what sort of butterflies might result?

Hope someone with a better understanding of the period than I can help me consider some of these questions.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

The bare minimum Japan will ask for is recognition of their puppet states in Manchukuo and Mengjiang. They might also ask for Hainan Island, but any more than that is up in the air due to the factionalism within the military and government alike.

 

[Nivek]

Well Mao..is you alone now

 

[CountofDooku]

I believe some of the the other Kuomintang Party Elites, or even soem of the yet still powerfull warlords would at least try to take over, maybe we would see more Chinese infighting as a result then? Clearly the Imperial Japanese Forces would soon try to exploid said situation durhter by biting off even larger chunks of China then they had allready managed by then with the last deal. However I think the Chinese would only recognise Manchuria and Mengjiang (alongside maybe Hainan, as any recognition of the Beijing or Nanjing Puppet governments and giving up more then that would have been political suicide, no matter what their internal Chinese situation amogn one another might in reality look like.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

I believe some of the the other Kuomintang Party Elites, or even soem of the yet still powerfull warlords would at least try to take over, maybe we would see more Chinese infighting as a result then? Clearly the Imperial Japanese Forces would soon try to exploid said situation durhter by biting off even larger chunks of China then they had allready managed by then with the last deal. However I think the Chinese would only recognise Manchuria and Mengjiang (alongside maybe Hainan, as any recognition of the Beijing or Nanjing Puppet governments and giving up more then that would have been political suicide, no matter what their internal Chinese situation amogn one another might in reality look like.

Maybe a demilitarized zone along the north and east? Recognition of Manchukuo would satisfy most of the radicals especially in the Kwantung Army, and the rest would be placated by long-term preparations for an eventual strike north into the Soviet Union.

 

[CountofDooku]

Maybe a demilitarized zone along the north and east? Recognition of Manchukuo would satisfy most of the radicals especially in the Kwantung Army, and the rest would be placated by long-term preparations for an eventual strike north into the Soviet Union.

Clearly a extension of the allready accepted zone before the Secodn Sino-Japanese War for sure to secure Manchukuo and Mengjiang, but let's not forget massive cocnessiosn to Japanese buisness and zaibatsu inside china's economy and transportation, as well as no limits for Japanese trade, imports and exports into the Chinese market overall would also be a major Japanese goal.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

Clearly a extension of the allready accepted zone before the Secodn Sino-Japanese War for sure to secure Manchukuo and Mengjiang, but let's not forget massive cocnessiosn to Japanese buisness and zaibatsu inside china's economy and transportation, as well as no limits for Japanese trade, imports and exports into the Chinese market overall would also be a major Japanese goal.

So...Manchukuo and Mengjiang getting recognized, plus handing over Hainan, and demilitarized zone in the east, along with tax-free status for Japanese companies in the DMZ? The Americans will scream bloody murder.

 

[CountofDooku]

So...Manchukuo and Mengjiang getting recognized, plus handing over Hainan, and demilitarized zone in the east, along with tax-free status for Japanese companies in the DMZ? The Americans will scream bloody murder.

They will, especially as Japanese Zaibatsu would not be subtile about having a special economic status in all of CHina, not only the DMZ or the Chinese Norhtern Provinces bordering Manchukuo/ Mengjiang. That is partly because the Japanese were too crazy ambitious to make China a sort of colony one way or another, but also because the Americans and Europeans denied them any rights they themselves reserved for their own (partly because racism, as the Japanese Position in China and Southeast Asia was viewed differently by the Americans then their own claims and ambitions in the Caribbean and Latin America).

 

[Zulfurium]

So...Manchukuo and Mengjiang getting recognized, plus handing over Hainan, and demilitarized zone in the east, along with tax-free status for Japanese companies in the DMZ? The Americans will scream bloody murder.

Even if the Americans scream bloody murder, what are they going to do about it? This is during the height of appeasement and seemingly no one on the Allied side was interested in escalating things. While any terms the Japanese would set out are going to be onerous, I don't know what the Americans could feasibly do about it if the conflict is ended.

As to leadership in China, I wonder what impact a restarting of the Warlord Era in the late 1930s would have. I doubt anyone would be able to easily pull a Chiang again and you can bet that the Japanese are going to be involved to the hilt in the whole mess. While they might "withdraw" from their conquests in eastern China, I would expect them to turn over land to friendly warlords under these circumstances.

One thought that just hit me was, whether there would even be a united Chinese side for the Japanese to negotiate with - and whether any agreement they would make would be accepted. Another is, what would happen with the Communist movement under these circumstances. Might the Russians finally shift their support from the KMT to the Communists? and if so, how much would that change the course of the conflict. Would the Communists be able to emerge as a major power in China during this round of warlordism?

 

[CountofDooku]

One thing the Americans could do then; demand Japan to play by the rules and for a open China policy they advocate for, demand they withdraw from northern China or so, if not, sanctions and embargo them like OTL.

But you're right, what if some Chinese simply don't accept the DMZ, or Japanese rule in mengjiang/ Manchuria at all, either by raid or direct invasion, then any form of truth or peace would be out of the windwo sooner then it was formed and Japan would run in the same problem TTL as it did OTL, it simply can't control and secure all of China by itself to prevent stuff liek this from happening in the future.