WI John McCain wins 2000 nomination

Molico

I'm sure there has been a thread or two about this already but I've always wondered what if somebody found out who was running the smear campaign against John McCain and if that would have changed the course of the primaries and election. In the OTL, an unknown party had viciously defamed Senator McCain and his family leading up to the South Carolina primary that resulted in a flattening defeat against Governor Bush. Part of the reason for this defeat was McCain used federal matching funds which placed stricter limits on his campaign than Bush's and he spent a lot of it on negative ads in retaliation. There were definitely other chances after that primary when McCain could have bounced back but South Carolina just seemed like the deciding moment in the race.
 
Last edited:

raharris1973

There have been threads about

WI John McCain wins 2000 nomination​

...but if you're expecting a timeline about journalistic detective work identifying the source of the smear campaign in South Carolina to identify a Bush campaign connected source in time for the primary and Super Tuesday, make it stick, and have it change those primaries' outcomes and the nominations that is not too realistic, a little too "on the nose" and West Wing-ish.

Honestly, and sadly, better off just having John and Cindy not adopt a brown kid in the first place, have Bush do a major gaffe or suffer from a DUI thing, or have something pop up in the weeks before those primaries that makes defense look very salient.

McCain's very appeal with the press corps, his "maverick-ness" which included flirtation with unorthodox policy positions, at least from a conservative point of view, and his lack of southern, rural social markers like the southern accent and evangelicalism, while playing well nationally, in New England and in the west, were *exactly* the kinds of things *South Carolina* Republicans didn't want in their nominee. George W. Bush, with the accent, the faux dumb/actual dumb, aww-shucks demeanor, evangelicalism, and no explicit deviation from anything championed by Newt Gingrich in Congress, ticked all the boxes for southern Republicans, so he was made for South Carolinian, and many of the other states in the southern heavy Super Tuesday contests.
 
Last edited:

Mark E.

If I recall, many Republicans were concerned McCain was weaker than Bush. It wouldn't have taken much to tip the election to Gore.
 

raharris1973

Mark E. said:
If I recall, many Republicans were concerned McCain was weaker than Bush. It wouldn't have taken much to tip the election to Gore.
Click to expand...
Maybe weaker in Tennessee specifically. But McCain would totally have been a stronger General Election competitor. How could he not have been?
 
Admiral Bloonbeard

Admiral Bloonbeard

raharris1973 said:
How many southern areas though would really pick Gore over Bush though? Tennessee was his home state. Talk Radio and Newt Gingrich, plus the Clinton scandals and Gore being away, *gave* the south to the GOP.
Click to expand...
Tennessee would go to Gore for sure, OTL had Gore won Tennessee he would have won the election. Florida is a maybe, but it could be countered by urbanites who's had brought over their Republican views when they migrated. Arkansas and West Virginia are strong possibilities.
 

raharris1973

Admiral Bloonbeard said:
Tennessee would go to Gore for sure, OTL had Gore won Tennessee he would have won the election. Florida is a maybe, but it could be countered by urbanites who's had brought over their Republican views when they migrated. Arkansas and West Virginia are strong possibilities.
Click to expand...
But I think McCain would have had been considered by centrist voters who didn’t give Bush a second look, all over the country. I can’t commit to how it plays out in every state, but you sound overconfident to me in Gore getting every state he got OTL. Areas McCain’s cross-over appeal might net him EVs include Maine, Iowa, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
 

Molico

So in this ATL, say a young aide in the McCain Campaign receives an anonymous tipoff claiming that that individual's employer is a media outlet who was going to run a fake news strategy against the senator. That aide takes it up the chain to Howard Opinsky and Greg Stevens who talk to Craig Turk and all three men take it directly to Senator McCain. This takes place about two weeks before the South Carolina Primary.
 
Last edited:
Admiral Bloonbeard

Admiral Bloonbeard

raharris1973 said:
But I think McCain would have had been considered by centrist voters who didn’t give Bush a second look, all over the country. I can’t commit to how it plays out in every state, but you sound overconfident to me in Gore getting every state he got OTL. Areas McCain’s cross-over appeal might net him EVs include Maine, Iowa, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Click to expand...
Bush actually won Colorado OTL and it wasn't even close FYI.
 

Archeo04

raharris1973 said:
But I think McCain would have had been considered by centrist voters who didn’t give Bush a second look, all over the country. I can’t commit to how it plays out in every state, but you sound overconfident to me in Gore getting every state he got OTL. Areas McCain’s cross-over appeal might net him EVs include Maine, Iowa, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Click to expand...
I agree. McCain would surely have done better than Bush in the Northeast and Midwest due to his appeal to independent voters. Gore would have probably won his home state of Tennessee and maybe Arkansas, but McCain would have still won most of the South.
 

Mark E.

In OTL, Gore had more popular votes than Bush, so it would have only taken one state to tip the election. Further details belong in current politics.
 
Last edited:

raharris1973

Mark E. said:
In OTL, Gore had more popular votes than Bush, so it would have only taken one state to tip the election. Further details belong in current politics.
Click to expand...
What gives you the standing to say the bolded part? Speculation on how different electoral demographics/constituencies, in 2000, would react to currently (as of 2024) dead or completely retired politicians, in altered circumstances, in 2000, should be totally legit for post-1900 althist.

Kids have been born, finished school, and become parents or wartime KIA in this timeframe, the 2000 election is starting to recede into history. What are we, the Historum forum?
 

Mark E.

raharris1973 said:
What gives you the standing to say the bolded part?
Click to expand...
The details that would be relevant might be no Bush tax cuts, no Iraq war, different economic reaction in 2008 and if Gore gets a second term, different supreme court justices. At some point the scenario would cross the line into current politics. The election of 2000, though is a good subject here.
 

material_boy

I'm surprised no one has brought up Pat Buchanan yet. The John McCain of 2000 is the anti-Buchanan -- interventionist, pro-immigration, and generally not comfortable talking about the culture wars. McCain's long stint in DC and his chumminess with the press corps would open him to anti-establishment attacks from the right in ways that Buchanan couldn't really attack Bush, who -- despite being the son of a former president and grandson of a senator -- was really, really good at selling his "aw shucks" country shtick as if that made him a political outsider. This could end up being an election with a conservative third party spoiler instead of a liberal one.
 

Dancing Fool

material_boy said:
The John McCain of 2000 is the anti-Buchanan -- interventionist, pro-immigration,
Click to expand...
It seems to me that the “Grand Bargain” on immigration would combine both a guest worker program of some sort, and some kind of amnesty. And please remember, President Ronald Reagan signed an immigration law in 1986 which included an amnesty component.

And let me suggest that we can come up to 10 years ago — meaning 2014 — and be relatively safe from spilling over into current politics. Hopefully so! :)
 
West234

West234

I think that a narrow John McCain victory seems possible and he might even win a few more states than Bush in our timeline like New Mexico and Wisconsin while losing Tennessee like so others have suggested. I assume in the wake of 9/11 he will win a strong reelection in 2004. Policy I don't think he would be as much of a war hawk as Bush but he would still launch an invasion of Afghanistan. No 2003 invasion of Iraq. Not sure what his domestic policy would be like. I think Obama might never have gained the nomination in 2008 without the backlash to the harsh tactics of the Bush administration making people on the left crave a new fresh face. Maybe Clinton wins instead and faces Bush or Rommny?
 

dw93

McCain picks a conservative running mate to balance the ticket and wins all of Bush's OTL states (though only wins states like TN and AR by a hair) plus NM, WI, and IA, and possibly OR.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top