WI Labour wins the 1970 general election?
- Thread starter Galba Otho Vitelius
- Start date
It would be favorable for European and British Space program if Labour win the election !
See in OTL the Tory Minister of State for Trade and Industry, Frederick Corfield, had opinion why need Britain a space program ?
under him the Black Arrow was cancel, He pulled Britain out of ESRO/ELDO and Europa Rocket program, lucky ELDO could order the first stage at manufacture Hawker Siddeley in Britain.
See in OTL the Tory Minister of State for Trade and Industry, Frederick Corfield, had opinion why need Britain a space program ?
under him the Black Arrow was cancel, He pulled Britain out of ESRO/ELDO and Europa Rocket program, lucky ELDO could order the first stage at manufacture Hawker Siddeley in Britain.
shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
(In before someone comments Gordon Banks Plays)
Labour winning wouldn't be so much an upset, given how the Conservatives winning was the Historical Upset, having polled ten or so points behind Labour throughout the entire campaign. Wilson will win a razor thin majority, however his victory will be more of an upset in that he didn't perform as well as expected.
But most immediate, Wilson would remain Prime Minister until '72, which was when he was rumored to drop out. His successor would either be Callaghan, although I've also heard some interesting things about Peter Shore. The Ministry of Technology is going to remain an actual Ministry, and likely to remain an established part of the Cabinet, however will also have to deal with Tony Benn during his restless years. Wilson still be having to handle the Trade Unions and rampant inflation, and won't have the Industrial Relations Act. There may also be something with Northern Irish Independence, which Wilson introduced and Heath supported IoTL, but didn't do anything with following Sunningdale. In Place of Strife will also likely find its way to legislation.
And of course, Britain would not have entered the EEC in 1973.
And on the 'Enoch Powell will succeed Heath', bear in mind that Powell in opposition also unlikely to be the Powell of Gordon Banks Plays, and more along the lines of Walking Back To Happiness. Whist he would have more of an opportunity to actually thrive in the 70's, it's worth noting that Leadership was something Powell was unsuited for, even though he would have won the contest, barring one of Heath's acolytes gaining momentum.
Labour winning wouldn't be so much an upset, given how the Conservatives winning was the Historical Upset, having polled ten or so points behind Labour throughout the entire campaign. Wilson will win a razor thin majority, however his victory will be more of an upset in that he didn't perform as well as expected.
But most immediate, Wilson would remain Prime Minister until '72, which was when he was rumored to drop out. His successor would either be Callaghan, although I've also heard some interesting things about Peter Shore. The Ministry of Technology is going to remain an actual Ministry, and likely to remain an established part of the Cabinet, however will also have to deal with Tony Benn during his restless years. Wilson still be having to handle the Trade Unions and rampant inflation, and won't have the Industrial Relations Act. There may also be something with Northern Irish Independence, which Wilson introduced and Heath supported IoTL, but didn't do anything with following Sunningdale. In Place of Strife will also likely find its way to legislation.
And of course, Britain would not have entered the EEC in 1973.
And on the 'Enoch Powell will succeed Heath', bear in mind that Powell in opposition also unlikely to be the Powell of Gordon Banks Plays, and more along the lines of Walking Back To Happiness. Whist he would have more of an opportunity to actually thrive in the 70's, it's worth noting that Leadership was something Powell was unsuited for, even though he would have won the contest, barring one of Heath's acolytes gaining momentum.
RyanF
Banned
Largely this, although I do wonder how Anthony Wedgwood Benn's views would develop, as they always seemed to swing further to the left whenever Labour were out of power.
Also likely to see Radcliffe Maud introduced in some form.
shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
Oh certainly, by 1970 the Report was going to be accepted regardless of who got into power. Wilson's Goverment notably introduced a White Paper, which broadly supported the Report's proposals, with a major deviation of two metropolitan areas, West Yorkshire (Leeds and the surrounding areas) and South Hampshire (Southampton and Portsmouth). Wilson promised to get the needed legislation through either in the 70/71 or 71/72 Parliament, and would have seen support from the Liberals and limited support from the Conservative Party.
RyanF
Banned
Yeah I seem to recall @Ares96 did quite a good map of how Labour would have introduced the local government reform.
EDIT: Can be found on this page.
Does that butterfly away the Sailor TV documentary series and Rod Stewart having one of his biggest hits with Sailing? Or do they use another ship?
But seriously, it might mean the Mason Defence Review is brought forward 4 years. Which among other things might mean the 1971-73 conversion of Hermes into a commando carrier is cancelled and she is sold as a "proper" aircraft carrier to a foreign navy in the early 1970s. Bulwark is decommissioned in 1972 instead of 1976, but it might still be decided to re-commission her in 1978 if she is put in reserve instead of scrapped. Albion might be run on as an ASW carrier until Invincible is commissioned.
If this actually happens we are probably looking at a Balkans style war on the island of Ireland that is going to bloodier, longer and more chaotic than OTL.
I checked the Wikipedia page on the election.
The Tories popular vote margin was 3.3%. This is something that can easily be wiped out or reversed with fairly trivial changes IOTL.
According to the Wikipedia page, the result was heavily influenced by England's defeat in the 1970 World Cup. Not sure if this is really true, but there is your POD.
As the other commentators have noted, there are some pretty big butterflies from such a trivial POD. No EEC membership for the UK, local government completely different, Ireland and the unions handled differently, and the Tories coming back in 1974 in time for the bad economic times causes even more butterflies. Thatcher is also not necessarily going to be put in the Cabinet by a Tory PM other than Heath.
In the election himself, it appears George Brown lost his seat by less than 2%, so with the popular vote change implied by a Labour victory this doesn't happen. On the other hand, Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe won his seat by less than 1% of the vote. He loses it if just 1% of his electorate voted Liberal IOTL but would vote Labour with Labour gaining 2% or 3% nationally on their IOTL result.
While the careers of Benn and Powell are both affected, wouldn't the replacement for Heath be either Maudling or MacLeod? The 1972 scandals involving Maudling haven't happened yet, though they might come to light after he becomes Leader of the Opposition. I realize that IOTL MacLeod died 42 days after the election!
The Tories popular vote margin was 3.3%. This is something that can easily be wiped out or reversed with fairly trivial changes IOTL.
According to the Wikipedia page, the result was heavily influenced by England's defeat in the 1970 World Cup. Not sure if this is really true, but there is your POD.
As the other commentators have noted, there are some pretty big butterflies from such a trivial POD. No EEC membership for the UK, local government completely different, Ireland and the unions handled differently, and the Tories coming back in 1974 in time for the bad economic times causes even more butterflies. Thatcher is also not necessarily going to be put in the Cabinet by a Tory PM other than Heath.
In the election himself, it appears George Brown lost his seat by less than 2%, so with the popular vote change implied by a Labour victory this doesn't happen. On the other hand, Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe won his seat by less than 1% of the vote. He loses it if just 1% of his electorate voted Liberal IOTL but would vote Labour with Labour gaining 2% or 3% nationally on their IOTL result.
While the careers of Benn and Powell are both affected, wouldn't the replacement for Heath be either Maudling or MacLeod? The 1972 scandals involving Maudling haven't happened yet, though they might come to light after he becomes Leader of the Opposition. I realize that IOTL MacLeod died 42 days after the election!
I was a teenager then. I had a teacher at the time, who was a tory supporter; prior to the election, she had always referred to the PM as 'dear old Wilson'. The day after, she was in a good mood, said "I can't wait to see Dr. Gallup". I guess the Gallup Poll had forecast a Labour win. She knew Gallup personally, as did I, he had a winter home where I lived.
shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
I believe 1970 was the PoD of Gordon Banks. It would certainly be a good jumping off point.
Thatcher would probobly still hold her position in the Cabinet, at least initially. Depending on who succeeds Heath, she may go up or down or even to the backbenches in the subsequent reshuffle.
On the Leadership itself, Maudling is a possibility, although a little past his prime and on the cusp on scandal, and the tragic MacLeod would of course die within two months of the electoral defeat; assuming Powell fails to win, you could see Whitelaw, Keith Joseph, or James Prior contest and have a decent shot.
Of course having Thorpe be knocked out in 1970 would be a blessing in disguise; assuming the Liberals don't collapse and are put under the Leadership of a man who wasn't a primed powder keg, such as Emlyn Hooson, who had a Majority of 8.7 in 1970, then you could see them push through the 70's and emerge far stronger in the 80's.
RyanF
Banned
Coming back to this because I think the idea has a lot of potential... presuming Wilson retires in 1972 who becomes leader of the Labour Party?
Callaghan may seem the obvious choice, but if a version of In Place of Strife made its way into legislation and Callaghan is again vocally opposed (maybe going so far as to resign) he may torpedo his chances.
Not sure if Foot would even run considering in 1972, I think after a 1970 Labour victory he would have continued his position leading the backbench opposition to the government (he only agreed to join the front bench after Labour were back in opposition, having previously turned down a Cabinet position from Wilson). Benn may be the candidate of the left, but in 1972 while Labour is still in government he may be seen by some as not left-wing enough.
I can't see Healey becoming Leader in 1972, as Defence Secretary he would have been linked to the reliance on nuclear deterrence and the sale of arms to South Africa. Jenkins would be interesting, but his views on the Common Market may prevent many in the Party from voting for him. I wonder if the right of the Party may coalesce around a single candidate, perhaps Crosland if he, Healey and Jenkins can put aside their differences (table for three at the Granita cafe, please).
Other possibilities include Castle (very much on the left but if In Place of Strife goes through would have some brownie points with the right), Shore as mentioned (but perhaps has too many enemies in the Party to be a serious contender), Short (as a safe pair of hands and compromise between right and left that helped get Deputy Leader OTL).
Whoever becomes PM, depending on if there is still an oil crisis, they may not be in for much fun in office.
Callaghan may seem the obvious choice, but if a version of In Place of Strife made its way into legislation and Callaghan is again vocally opposed (maybe going so far as to resign) he may torpedo his chances.
Not sure if Foot would even run considering in 1972, I think after a 1970 Labour victory he would have continued his position leading the backbench opposition to the government (he only agreed to join the front bench after Labour were back in opposition, having previously turned down a Cabinet position from Wilson). Benn may be the candidate of the left, but in 1972 while Labour is still in government he may be seen by some as not left-wing enough.
I can't see Healey becoming Leader in 1972, as Defence Secretary he would have been linked to the reliance on nuclear deterrence and the sale of arms to South Africa. Jenkins would be interesting, but his views on the Common Market may prevent many in the Party from voting for him. I wonder if the right of the Party may coalesce around a single candidate, perhaps Crosland if he, Healey and Jenkins can put aside their differences (table for three at the Granita cafe, please).
Other possibilities include Castle (very much on the left but if In Place of Strife goes through would have some brownie points with the right), Shore as mentioned (but perhaps has too many enemies in the Party to be a serious contender), Short (as a safe pair of hands and compromise between right and left that helped get Deputy Leader OTL).
Whoever becomes PM, depending on if there is still an oil crisis, they may not be in for much fun in office.