WI : The Abbasids defeat the Mongol Invasion of Iraq

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

I was reading some old post from @John7755 يوحنا were he discussed the recovery of the Abbasids in the post Seljuk era and how they might have succeeded in beating back Hulagu and his army

it can be argued, the Khilafah was making a small recovery having secured Iraq and parts of Syria, primarily Tikrit, Samarra, Kerbalah etc this was under the Caliph Al-Nasir li-Din Allah, who reigned for 47 years,` By this I mean that it was not even set in stone that Hulagu Khan would have been able to take Baghdad or Alamut for the matter. I can corraborate this with sources that say Hulagu was quite afraid and worried about the invasion of Baghdad, fearing the strength and size of the Abbasid militia, as well how large and strong the city was. However, learning from his ancestor 30 years earlier Caliph Al-Musta'sim (don't feel like typing his full name) believed simply (also through the "advice" of his idiotic vizier) that Allah would stop the enemy before they reached him, this is covered in his letters sent to Hulagu while was in Alamut. In fact he thought either Allah would stop the Mongols with a calamity before they arrived or that throwing rocks at them from the walls would stay the horde. Therefore against the will of his marshal, ("They believe matters to be simple yet it is the sword whose edge is sharpened for the encounter") neglected defense and did not put up a fight, eventually surrendering and being executed. Had the Caliphs not been so cocky and hopeful of some calamity or auspicious event, than perhaps we could see an actual long lasting independent Abbasid caliphate

The Abbasids on the other hand had serious advantages over the Mongols in many different ways.

1. The Abbasids were feared by the Mongols, not only due to their title or position but the impenetrable walls of Baghdad and the difficulty in facing the militia around Iraq which could break the siege of Baghdad or cut off Mongol supplies. Thus the decision by the Mongols to ravage Basra before attacking Baghdad. Further, Hulagu sought out the loyalty of Shia and Christians within Iraq, something Musta'sim neglected and was too preoccupied with his luxurious decadence to realize the threat.

2. The Mongols previously having feared the Abbasids requested an alliance with them, before proceeding to Alamut to battle the Hashashin. This was given by the Abbasids despite the foolhardy decision and reasoning and the disagreement from numerous military advisors, who advised the caliph to assist the Hashashin and defeat the Mongols before they became too strong, "They believe matters to be simple, yet it is the sword which is sharpened for the encounter", the plea by the Abbasid marshal to attack the Mongols anyone they had a chance. In response, Musta'sim simply relied on Allah to bring down calamity upon the pagans or that he could negotiate his way out of war. His negotiating would lead to the wholesale slaughter of all that he loved.

3. As well, instead of attacking the Mongols at Basra and in the South, he missed the golden opportunity to attack the Momgols from the marshlands and inflict the same sort of defeat the Zanj previously did to the horse riding armies of the Saffarids. Had he and his army sallied forth and attacked the Mongols south of Batihah then he could've taken the head of the Mongols before they ever reached Baghdad.

4. The aspect of foreign warriors. By this I refer to the Kwarezmian warriors who arrived in Mamluk dominion and served under them. Musta'sim denied their requests for refuge and any alliance. He was in fact delighted in the Mongols, seeing them as his pawns in destroying the Abbasid's chief rival in the region, this made him complacent and unwilling to seriously ever accept the Mongols as a threat. This is stacked on to his that no enemy could cross Iran effectively without some unlucky event too cut cutting the enemies advance short as happened to the Kwarezmshah-Abbasid war.

Had Abbasid authorities taken this threat seriously, the Mongols would've been stopped in Iraq or at Alamut by a Abbasid-Hashashin alliance. Whereas I give Kwarezm near no shot at defeating the far superior Mongol foe.

the PoD is a different and far more competent Caliph al Musta'sim that take the Mongol threats seriously and whose determined to put up a fight .

let's say he doesn't neglect to prepare the Abbasids armies and loyalty of the diverse groups in Irak , accept the alliance of the Khwarezmian force and gain a decisive victory mirroring the one the Zanj had on the Saffarids similarly to what John proposed , Hulagu survive but his army suffered significant casualty . let's also say the likely follow up invasion in the decade following the first meet a similar fate .

What are the consequence ? On the Middle East ? on the Mongol Empire ? Hulagu and Berke relationship ? How tenable is mongol position in Iran and Anatolia after the Mongols suffered defeat by the Abbasids ? Could the Khwarezmian manage to restore some semblance of theirs kingdom in Iran instead of being wiped out in the Levant ? How do theirs defeat affect the Mongol especially the one of the Ilkhanate ? how would it affect theirs conversion to islam ? How are the Ayyubids and Mamluk affected by the Abbasids victory ? Could a victory give the Abbasids the influence / power to hold a tighter leash on them ?
How is the Middle East affected by a Iraq not ravaged by the Mongols and still under Abbasids rule ?
Could the Abbasids and Mesopotamia continue theirs resurgence to re become the regional top dogs they once were ?
Could the Mongols be stopped from conquering Iraq on the long run ? Could the victory strengthen the recovery of the Abassids and theirs leading role among muslim ?
What become of the Mamluk in this situation ? without victory over the mongol and house Caliph to legitimise them ? Do Qutuz or Baibars still take power ? what become of them ?

 

[Nivek]

What are the consequence ? On the Middle East ? on the Mongol Empire ?

The Abbasids would be the heroes of Central Asia that Stopped the Mongol Empire in his mid growth, but of course there chance than the Mongols now send more people to the grinder because say humiliation, that would be fun.

Another butterfly will be Central Asia till Russia, without the Mongols and Golden Horde, the petits boyars will infight more between themselves..a mothra size butterfly

 

[kholieken]

- even if Abbasids succeed in repulsing Mongols in Baghdad, they have no offensive power to cross Zagros and recapture Iran.
- it would affect Mongols internally much, Mongols defeated in India, and even Song resist Mongols from decades.
- a lot of would depend on how bad defeat it is, did Hulagu still alive and in charge ? did Mongols still have enough force to continue rain Mesopotamia ?

 

[Lions21]

Defeating the first invasion is possible but one great defeat isn't going to stop the ilkhanate in its tracks for good justas it didn't in OTL , the mongols at this point are at their height and they're not going to give up as pointef out earlier, it took a long time for the yuan to conquer the Song dynasty.

I think Berke will be emboldened by Hulagu's defeat and probably will attack him but its hard to say if it'll amount to much though ofc it depends on the scale of the defeat.

If Hulagu is somehow killed in this hypothetical defeat then it has the potential to be much more damahing to the ilkhanate though.