Britain stretched thin by her success and the problems with the French.
As I have said before in this and other Time Lines, the principle problem for the British at the start of the war, was how do we win. Where as the principal problem for all of the Axis powers was how do we avoid losing. ITTL thanks to a number of factors, in particular the survival of Sir John and the production of better armoured vehicles, the British have done better than they did IOTL. Right now they UK, is secure from attack, as the Germans are fully committed to the titanic struggle in the East against the Soviet Union. While the German maritime campaign in the Atlantic is proving to be hard but manageable, and with the American entry into the war, will soon become a minor irritant. The British position in the Middle East, North Africa, Mediterranean, and the Far East, is stable, and they will soon be in a position to start to push back, and put their enemies on the back foot. However British resources are stretched very thin, and while they are not scraping the bottom of the barrel. They do need time to consolidate their positions, and lay the groundwork for the next phase of the conflict, and their eventual return to the European mainland and the conclusion of the war. Right now they have two major problems, one is the unrealistic expectations of the Americans, and the other other the French in North Africa.
And right now it’s the French who are being the major fly in the ointment, between De Gaulle who was very much not a puppet of the British, but was a serious pain in the butt. And Weygand, who in addition to being well over the hill, is also living in fantasy land, and failing to face up to the realities of the situation. Which when you add in the Americans, who can not leave the situation alone, but have to stick their oar in to the mix, mostly without consulting the British first, and reaching an agreed agenda. And thus making the situation worse, as the British and Americans didn’t present a united front to the French, and they the French are able to play one side against the other, and introduce tensions between the two sides. Weygand is allowing his own personal prejudices to colour his responses to the various proposals put forth towards him. He is very much of the old school, and is wrapped in the honour of France and the honour of the French Army. He had retired from the army at the age of 68 in 1935, and thus was 73 when he took command of the French forces in 1940, in other words not only was he too old, he was also out of date. By 1942 he is 75, and has very little experience with mobile forces, and being stuck in North Africa, no opportunity to gain such experience, he doesn’t have the kit or the resources to conduct large scale exercises.
He is also very tied into the Vichy system, and regards himself as both his former commanders subordinate, and a true believer in the virtues of the Vichy regime. He was also very delusional believing that the British needed him, far more than they did, were as by now the British knew that they could easily invade and replace him, with someone more complacent. As for the threat from Franco, unlike the Americans, the British had been playing the game far longer, and not only had they fully compromised his regime, and were receiving constant reports from inside, they knew just how weak was his control over Spain was. Franco was reliant on the British and Americans to feed his people, and provided the essential fuel to keep the Spanish economy running. He despite his bluster wasn’t going to invade Gibraltar, or take an active part in the war against the British or Americans. His support for the Germans was a convenient method of disposing his most virulent opponents, by sending them off to take part in the battle against International Communism in the Soviet Union, and preferably dyeing at the same time. Even without Weygand’s cooperation the British are now in a position to start to run convoys through the Mediterranean, and shorten the route to the East and Egypt.
Yes they will have to escort them past Sicily, and risk suffering air attacks, but the threat is no where near as severe as it appears to be. Not only are the Sicilian narrows not that narrow, Italy doesn’t have ether the aircraft, fuel and resources to conduct a prolonged campaign against the British as they push a weekly convoy through the Mediterranean. While at the same time being subjected to an increasing number of air attacks on Sicily from Malta and Tunisia, by both day and night. Each time the British escort a convoy past Sicily the escorts will get better, while the Italians will suffer under a constant increasing pressure, which will degrade their performance bit by bit. Do the British need to invade Sicily at this present time, no, given the increasing weakness of the Italians, they can basically find workarounds, until they accomplish the thing that infuriates the Americans. It’s time to tidy up the battlefield, and sort out the mess that the Japanese involvement in the war has created. Time to resolve the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean with both the French in the Levent, and the Italians in the Dodecanese. Time to put a number of ships who are in desperate need of major services and refits into dockyard hands. Time to swap Army and Airforce formations around, with the most experienced officers and men being transferred either home or elsewhere to rest and/or provide carders for new units. During this time it is possible that the need to invade French North Africa will disappear, as changes in the government/administration will cause them to switch sides. Both Uncle Benito and Weygand are sitting on very uneasy thrones right now, and there is a good chance that they might find themselves turfed out and replaced by more realistic people. People who are in light of the current situation prepared to do a deal with the British, in the best interests of the nation.
For the Americans this isn’t the 1942 OOTL, the British are not on the ropes desperately hanging on awaiting the American calvary to come over the hill and rescue them. In fact the British are very far from being on the ropes, but they do need the bell to go and get a chance to grab their breath, have a seat and absorb what their trainer is telling them and rinse out their mouth while gathering their wits. 1942 is going to be mostly a year of consolidation and preparation for the next round, and trying desperately to get the Americans to come to an agreement about the way forward. They have the problem that they themselves haven’t decided yet what direction they want to go, the internal conflict between the German first and the Japan first, despite what their President says, is still very much on the table. And when you add in trying to coordinate with the British, who very much have ideas of their own, and would much prefer to sit down around a big table with a nice cup of tea and come to an agreement. And ITTL a apposed to ours, the British are going to be more forceful in presenting their case, much to the disquiet of the Americans. And given that the British are far more experienced in committee work, which was a vital skill for signor British officials both militarily and civilian. I would expect that the Americans ITTL are going to find themselves agreeing to courses of action that they are not happy with.
RR.
