TLTIMD: For Want Of A Hat

SenatorChickpea

Er, the TL is enjoyable enough but the stuff about China is really implausible. China joining the Axis and invading its colonial neighbours entails the nationalists cheerfully cutting their own supply lines. They can't get the resources they need through their ports, they certainly can't get them via the Soviets any more, and now they've destroyed their links to the west?

And they're doing so, moreover, while ignoring the entire bugbear of Chinese nationalism, which is the Japanese presence in Manchuria?
Alright, so there's no Marco Polo bridge incident, fine. But even before the Japanese invaded China they weren't restricted to Manchuria- they had influence right through the north of China- and the Chinese weren't happy. There was enormous presence on the Chiang to take a stand, which is one of the reasons Marco Polo escalated to war in the first place. Just because China's a dictatorship doesn't mean it can ignore the huge momentum coming from below- neither Chiang or these "fascistic officers" will be able to just ignore the Japanese on their flank.

I'm sorry, but look up all the "China in the Axis" threads. Yes, Germany provided a lot of arms to China- and so did everyone else. The Chinese were never close to being in the Axis- that was just a fantasy of the Germans, and indeed of the more deluded Japanese militarists.

Apart from that though- I am enjoying the TL.
 
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Gog (♀)

SenatorChickpea said:
Er, the TL is enjoyable enough but the stuff about China is really implausible. China joining the Axis and invading its colonial neighbours entails the nationalists cheerfully cutting their own supply lines. They can't the resources they need through their ports, they certainly can't get them via the Soviets any more, and now they've destroyed their links to the west?

And they're doing so, moreover, while ignoring the entire bugbear of Chinese nationalism, which is the Japanese presence in Manchuria?
Alright, so there's no Marco Polo bridge incident, fine. But even before the Japanese invaded China they weren't restricted to Manchuria- they had influence right through the north of China- and the Chinese weren't happy. There was enormous presence on the Chiang to take a stand, which is one of the reasons Marco Polo escalated to war in the first place. Just because China's a dictatorship doesn't mean it can ignore the huge momentum coming from below- neither Chiang or these "fascistic officers" will be able to just ignore the Japanese on their flank.

I'm sorry, but look up all the "China in the axis" threads. Yes, Germany provided a lot of arms to China- and so did everyone else. The Chinese were never close to being in the axis- that was just a fantasy of the Germans, and indeed of the more deluded Japanese militarists.

Apart from that though- I am enjoying the TL.
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i will edit that, although how would one go about having a neutral Japan in WWII? How about the purge of the Kwatang army being succesful and turmoil not allowing them to take part?
 
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Tom Colton

Tom Colton

This isn't some racialist nonsense about "naturally" violent countries or powers, but the junior officer clique would already have been emboldened enough by the 1931 invasion of Manchuria (which predates the PoD) for Japan to careen headlong into China, unfortunately.
 

SenatorChickpea

Tom Colton said:
This isn't some racialist nonsense about "naturally" violent countries or powers, but the junior officer clique would already have been emboldened enough by the 1931 invasion of Manchuria (which predates the PoD) for Japan to careen headlong into China, unfortunately.
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I tend to agree.

OP, is the aim for a neutral Japan or for America not to get involved in a Pacific War?


If the latter, I think your best bet is for Japan either to win big in China quickly- unlikely, as most of the Chinese leadership was well aware of what existence awaited the country under Japanese hegemony- or for the Soviets to be pulled in somehow.
The USSR was Japan's original target, anyway. They never stood a chance against them, but one of the big aims in securing China was to acquire a colonial empire that would give them the resources they needed to face down the Russians.
Now, perhaps if there was an attack of blind stupidity that was extreme even for the young Japanese officers you might see a pattern of escalation following the Khalkin Ghol incident, which eventually leads to a full war. It's not impossible- right through the thirties western commentators expected there to be a second Russo-Japanese War.

Japan loses, probably well before the equivalent of Barbarossa, and no Pacific War.


On the other hand, if you want a neutral, surviving Japanese Empire? That's hard. As Tom Colton says, they're going into China, and that will lead to their destruction- either in the short term, or within a decade as they choke on their conquests. And once they do, either they'll begin running short of resources- in which case they attack the Western colonies, which means they attack the Philippines, which means America is in the war- or they need to shut down Chinese supply lines. And to do that they have to attack the Western colonies, which means they attack the Philippines, et cetera.


It's a hard circle to square.
Now, with a US that's feeling the pinch, there'll likely be a weaker embargo on Japan, and greater Japanese access to neutral markets. That will help some, but I still think that Japanese militarism had a short shelf life.
 

SenatorChickpea

Oh, and having just seen your revision:

No, a Japanese communist revolt won't do it, as there will pretty much no Japanese communists to revolt. Leftism was always weak in Japan, and by the time of your POD it had been almost completely squashed as a mass movement.
 
Tom Colton

Tom Colton

A quick fix could be the February 26 incident in 1936 succeeding and the Japanese junior officers winding up getting purged by the slightly less insane officers, perhaps even with direct intervention from Hirohito (who was consistently half-heartedly opposed to Japanese ultra-militarism) when they charge into Russia too hastily and get an extremely bloody nose from the Soviets.
 

SenatorChickpea

Tom Colton said:
A quick fix could be the February 26 incident in 1936 succeeding and the Japanese junior officers winding up getting purged by the slightly less insane officers, perhaps even with direct intervention from Hirohito (who was consistently half-heartedly opposed to Japanese ultra-militarism) when they charge into Russia too hastily and get an extremely bloody nose from the Soviets.
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That might do it. Certainly, it holds together with minimum handwavium so that the timeline can focus on the US.
 

Gog (♀)

Tom Colton said:
A quick fix could be the February 26 incident in 1936 succeeding and the Japanese junior officers winding up getting purged by the slightly less insane officers, perhaps even with direct intervention from Hirohito (who was consistently half-heartedly opposed to Japanese ultra-militarism) when they charge into Russia too hastily and get an extremely bloody nose from the Soviets.
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Thanks, I'll edit that in

I'm very sorry 20th century Asia is not my specialty:eek:
 

Gog (♀)

An August Afternoon

August 7th, 1941, Spokane, Washington

"Aint this just a lovely day?" Asked President Long. "Here I stand in Spokane, to tell ya'll about my new Enemies Of America Bill, and to tell you to call your congressman and make it pass." The crowd predictably cheered and Long looked to the side, his Vice President Burton K. Wheeler standing close by. Going on with his speech he noticed a odd bunch of fellows standing by the fire hydrant on the corner. Suddenly these men whipped out sub machine guns and started firing wildly at the crowd. The bullets were flying and Long ran for cover. The fire fight between the men and the Secret Service was brutal but in the end only one man, the leader of the attackers approached Long. As he came close, Long pulled out his trusty pistol and put one right between the eyes. The man fell and Long linked up to the remaining Secret Servicemen. "Who were these dammed fools?" he demanded. "They were a fascist militant group called the Silver Legion, and their leader, William D. Pelley is lying in the dirt yonder." The guard gestured at the dead man Long shot. "Anyone else of note injured?" Long asked. "VPOTUS Wheeler is in critical condition.

Later that day, Vice President Burton K. Wheeler died.
 
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Gog (♀)

The War: August 1941-January 1942

"While I have previously denounced war as a racket, now I stand to make an exception to those words. The war waged by Hitler and his allies will destroy the world if left unabated. We must work with Britain to destroy this menace, or it will destroy us." Secretary Of War Smedley Butler, August 12th 1941
220px--Universal_Newsreel_-_Gen._Butler_bares_%22plot%22_by_fascists.ogv.jpg

Secretary Butler addressing Congress

(note that i am no expert in WWII and feel free to point out things i missed or botched.:))

President Long decided to dramatically increase the lend lease sent to the UK and send the USAF, USN and the first units of the Army to England. He also engaged in a invasion of Vichy Africa aided by British Colonial troops and Free French troops. This proved ultimately successful as the poorly equipped troops of Vichy France and Italy were swept away as the path to Algiers grew ever nearer. America also sent its bombers and troops to Egypt, where they aided greatly in the Libyan campaign. The Germans created the Atlantic Wall, manned by large amounts of troops, as Germany wanted to keep its flanks safe from American incursion, to prepare for the war against the USSR. USAF bombers unloaded their payload in Nazi occupied Europe and destroyed many factories. The problem was that it was too dangerous to invade Europe, as the Germans had far too many troops there. So, without the knowledge of Churchill, President Long went to a location off the coast of Alaska, on January 3rd 1942, to meet with Stalin, to discuss opening up a second front. Long promised large amounts of Lend Lease aid and logistical support by the USAF. Stalin asked for more something in return, a bluff saying that Germany felt comfortable in its currant position not at war with Russia. While both men knew it was a lie, Long agreed on a division of Europe. West of the Rhine was to go to American Allies, while east was to the USSR. Greece, Italy, Albania and Bulgaria were to become liberated by the Americans, while "logistical difficulties" were to prevent a push into the Balkans or Germany. This secret agreement, The Aleutian Accord, was to remain a secret until 2042, when files were unlocked, and by then both men were long dead. Meanwhile, the armies of the USSR, having been updated and structured after the purges of the thirties, were getting ready to strike...
 
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SlyDessertFox

SlyDessertFox

Wait, what in this timeline makes Hitler wait to the point that he hasn't invaded Germany by 1942 in this timeline? As I understand it, everything else in Europe seems to have gone the same as OTL, so Hitler delaying his invasion doesn't seem to make sense.
 

Gog (♀)

SlyDessertFox said:
Wait, what in this timeline makes Hitler wait to the point that he hasn't invaded Germany by 1942 in this timeline? As I understand it, everything else in Europe seems to have gone the same as OTL, so Hitler delaying his invasion doesn't seem to make sense.
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He wants to crush the British and Americans first, which will end up being a mistake

He's also insane, and butterflies made him change that decision to invade the USSR in 41
 

Lost Freeway

Banned
SlyDessertFox said:
Wait, what in this timeline makes Hitler wait to the point that he hasn't invaded Germany by 1942 in this timeline? As I understand it, everything else in Europe seems to have gone the same as OTL, so Hitler delaying his invasion doesn't seem to make sense.
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How can Germany invade itself?:confused:
 

Gog (♀)

The War: February 1942-December 1942

The war slumbered during the winter months as the purge of fascism from America continued, one non Union party congressman was prosecuted. Agriculture Secretary Ernst Lundeen. It was found out from an anonymous source that was later confirmed that Lundeen was often visited by George Viereck, a previously arrested German spy. Lundeen was prosecuted by the Enemies of America Committee (henceforth referred as the EAC.) He was found guilty, imprisoned and sacked. To show committal to the Democrat-Socialist alliance, Long appointed Governor Carle Whitehead of Colorado as Secretary of Agriculture. The war however came roaring up with the decisive battles in Libya and Egypt forcing back the Italian troops. Soon the Germans deployed many troops there lead by Rommel, but other maters soon occupied them. On May 8th, 1942, Soviet forces attacked German positions in Eastern Europe. Soon they declared war and the USSR officially entered World War Two. Almost imminently President Long proposed a huge increase of Lend Lease to the USSR and the aiding of logistics there. It was approved easily and the ships came down the Vladivostok and Murmansk. The Vichy French forces in Indochina soon came under even more threat than the British attackers. The Indochinese Liberation Front led by guerrilla Ho Chi Minh attacked bases and patrols, tacking over large portions of the region. Little did the Free or Vichy French know that Ho was being aided by US advisers and materials, with the promise that Indochina would become a friendly nation to the United States after the war. By the end of the year the war was going very well for the Allies and there was no reason to suspect that the midterms would be surprising.
 
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Gog (♀)

1942 Midterms

House of Representatives
Democrats: 237 [+19]
Socialists: 72[+13]
Republicans: 70[-29]
Conservatives: 27 [+4]
Farmer Labor: 24[-5]
Communists: 1[-2]
Union: 0[-2]


Senate
Democrats: 53[+6]
Socialists: 20[+2]
Republicans: 12[-7]
Conservatives: 8[+2]
Farmer Labor: 5[-3]
Union: 0[-2]
Communists: 0[-1]
 
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